tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post2955192490296042862..comments2024-03-20T03:33:22.357-07:00Comments on Skeptophilia: Astrological philosobabbleGordon Bonnethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06003472005971594466noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-57931811216802389842017-04-16T17:05:41.878-07:002017-04-16T17:05:41.878-07:00(con't)
I am verbose. You put it this way: “Lo...(con't)<br />I am verbose. You put it this way: “Look for long enough, and you'll find more than one cluster of superficially similar people with the same signs -- it's just the law of large numbers at work.” “More than one” is misleading – no one claimed that this coincidence is unique. But “superficially similar” is way off. The Horsemen are far from that – they were a world-famous posse riding together in a televised attack on deeply-held age-old, world-wide philosophical positions. You consider your critique ‘rational’; I see it as a slapdash and dishonest application of ‘reason signaling’ to foreclose further examination of an intriguing phenomenon. <br /><br />Like a judge, then, who has the power to fairly or unfairly exclude certain evidence from the jury – sometimes evidence considered crucial – you retreat to age-old anti-astrological banalities and divert attention from the principle new evidence here presented for astrology, the fact that the sign shared by all four horsemen is Aries. The remarkable thing is not that they are all under one sign and I certainly would not have pursued the matter very far if they were under any other sign but Aries, which is traditionally (and I also claim, demonstrably) related to belligerence and atheism. Following that argument via the humanities (history, literature, philosophy, popular culture, etc.) rather than via scientism requires actual thinking and reading, not just high school math. It does not require acquiescence to any theories about prediction. My material from which Martin Cohen borrowed elaborates the subject of Aries and the Four Horsemen in greater detail here: http://bit.ly/2pntcpn<br /><br />Best wishes, Mark Shulgasser (astrodreamer.squarespace.com)<br />astrodreamerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18275327429966123446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-91979374696495342222017-04-16T17:05:20.970-07:002017-04-16T17:05:20.970-07:00Only just came across this blogpost. I take a grea...Only just came across this blogpost. I take a great interest in all paraphilias, so I hope you won’t take my response to your comments as an attack. It was I who introduced Martin Cohen to the coincidence of the birthdays of the Four Horsemen, which I developed in an article that he published. I have not seen the book you refer to so I don’t know how accurately he represented my material. I never suggested that the odds were in the vicinity of 20,000/1 – in fact they are only 1728/1. The former odds would only pertain to the instance of 4 individuals having one particular, pre-specified sign of the 12. The odds that they would all share any sign whatever is only 12 to the third power. Even this is still a striking coincidence, no matter the fact that it is far from impossible. <br /><br />However, to say that because such coincidences do happen, even must happen, does not immediately rob it of significance. For one thing, significance is a commodious concept that one should not assume can only mean statistical significance. When a fairly improbable event is forced on our attention it is natural among we meaning-seeking creatures to wonder whether there is any significance. You may say this is ‘probably’ merely a coincidence but scientifically it’s far from proven. You may attempt an experimental proof by checking the birthdays of a large number of quartets (say, consecutive names in a phone book) to see how many quartets fit the bill. But even if you were to find 10 in 17,280 no more no less as you seem to be predicting, have you made the four horsemen that much less remarkable? Because the four horsemen have much more in common than their birth sign. If it is necessary to have a remarkable commonality in addition to sign among the quartets, the probability becomes much smaller, incalculably so, since defining and weighting that commonality adds a major factor of imprecision. <br /><br />Now, if you ascertain the signs of the next 4 strangers you run into, then repeat that 1728 times there is a good chance that more or less once they will all be of the same sign. You will not be surprised when it happens, you will if anything be delighted to have triumphed over my nonsense, but if each of them has an egregiously bulbous nose (or some other outstanding characteristic far less common even than a particular sign of the zodiac, such as being a prominent crusading militant atheist) then I think any sane person (as opposed to rational person) will be quite surprised. ( con't)<br /><br />astrodreamerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18275327429966123446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-57862235225977780092015-12-04T11:12:29.671-08:002015-12-04T11:12:29.671-08:00Mr. Cohen probably got the Flu. When he comes out ...Mr. Cohen probably got the Flu. When he comes out of his cough-syrup fever dream he'll realize he just endorsed astrology as a potentially legitimate way to predict the future.<br /><br />Really, though, Mr. Cohen is just looking in the wrong place. <br />Hello... McFly! You don't need astrology when there's a more legitimate answer to prediction. What we, as a people, really need to explore is the possibility of installing Flux Capacitors on DeLorean motor vehicles and achieving a max speed of 88mph. I know it seems like it wouldn't work, but all you have to do is apply science, reasons, and a bit more science, and voula... The Universe reveals itself to you.<br /><br />Just keep an open mind.*<br /><br /><br /><br />(*Disclaimer: Individuals must remain upright while keeping an open mind, to prevent their brain from falling out.)Hontseur Thotshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10799765178908406877noreply@blogger.com