tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post5576682984343951110..comments2024-03-20T03:33:22.357-07:00Comments on Skeptophilia: Pondering Project SerpoGordon Bonnethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06003472005971594466noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-51477965038255444352015-09-02T18:52:05.635-07:002015-09-02T18:52:05.635-07:00In my first comment on this thread, Instead of ...In my first comment on this thread, Instead of 'biases and logical fallacies that so often I find in others' I should have used 'biases and logical fallacies that so often I find in people (including myself)'.<br />Tyler was right to call me on this, it is so easy to be misunderstood when one is not more careful with their words.<br />Skepticism gave me the concern and need for self assessment. As I was learning more about rationally examining incredible claims, I was also learning about the many biases that interfere with our logical judgement and the logical errors often used in defence of baseless ideas.<br />I am guilty.<br />I've been guilty before and will probably be guilty again.<br />At least I make an effort to avoid the mistakes that I freely complain about when examining the evidence and seeing if I can draw a conclusion.<br /><br />Quite right, Tyler, I am guilty.<br /><br />Best,<br />Woody Woodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16756590870917752187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-47534493120625173232015-09-02T08:24:13.121-07:002015-09-02T08:24:13.121-07:00Nobody reasons perfectly, and nobody is free from ...Nobody reasons perfectly, and nobody is free from bias. If you only find biases and logical fallacies in others, and not in yourself, then you are simply not aware of your prejudgments and errors, and will continue to make them until you become aware.Tyler Torkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11460706772136362593noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-73480874116656224762015-09-02T02:48:27.600-07:002015-09-02T02:48:27.600-07:00You've hit on a set of questions that, as a le...You've hit on a set of questions that, as a learning and thoughtful skeptic, i've concerned myself with before. <br /> 'UFO Conjectures' blog included similar questions in a recent post. So many people see things in the sky that they can't explain or actually describe as an alien spacecraft, although i'm f**ked if I can figure out how they know what an alien space looks like anyway.<br />A little self-assessment and tolerance of the weirder claims, as I research, has served me well.<br />I'm a skeptic, after all, not just working to learn the facts that play a role or may play a role in my process of reaching conclusions but also checking myself regularly to see that I am not falling foul of the many biases and logical fallacies that so often I find in others. Thanks for reading.<br /><br />All the best,<br />Woody Woodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16756590870917752187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4307187040250193857.post-37829119798767789462015-09-01T06:41:54.330-07:002015-09-01T06:41:54.330-07:00I know this doesn't exactly address the Serpo ...I know this doesn't exactly address the Serpo thing, but the phrase in the letter that "they can't all be liars" I think calls for a response.<br />The problem with the reasoning that, when there are many reports of something, surely some of them must be true, even if only, say, 1%, is that people _are_ subject to mass delusions and hysterias. If their heads are in a weird space and they imagine something, they'll generally imagine something they've heard other people have reported.<br />If 99% of reports are easily explainable, how is it a stretch to say that the remaining 1%, for which the exact cause can't be proven, still almost certainly have mundane explanations? If there's a mass delusion that's actually totally false, that's exactly what it would look like. A lot of people would be claiming to have witnessed the same thing, and they would all be wrong. So there's a huge hole in that reasoning.<br />Take for instance the Nigerian Genitalia Vanishing Epidemic of 1990. There were many thousands of reported cases, but we don't for that reason believe that genital theft is possible, even though the vast majority of these cases were never investigated to determine whether they were legit -- indeed, they can't be, since the thieves sneakily, by magic, return the borrowed equipment when challenged (or substitute substandard replacements), so what is there to investigate? Can't prove anything one way or the other. Do I think they were all lying? No. Surely some of them were, but others really thought their dangly bits were going missing. But none of them were correct in that assertion.Tyler Torkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11460706772136362593noreply@blogger.com