The truth is out there. Probably.

I've always been dubious about reports of UFOs.

To me, they always seem to come back to anecdotal evidence, which is lousy support for what is essentially a scientific conjecture.  As eminent astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson put it, "If you're ever abducted, steal something from the spaceship, and bring it back with you... because then you'll have something of alien manufacture.  And anything that's crossed interstellar space is gonna be interesting.  But until then, we can't have the conversation... 'I saw it' just isn't enough."

The problem is, UFO sightings are incredibly common.  MUFON -- the Mutual UFO Network -- is devoted to keeping track of all the UFO sightings reported worldwide, and it's a full-time occupation.  (In the first half of 2018, there were 3,627 UFO sightings reported to MUFON, of which 647 were labeled "unknown" -- in other words, not accounted for by conventional explanations, at least in their opinion.)

Michio Kaku, the Japanese-born astronomer who has become a familiar face on documentaries about alien life, has weighed in on this, and has an interesting take on things.  "Ninety-five percent of all UFO sightings can be immediately identified as the planet Venus, weather balloons, weather phenomena, swamp gas.  You name it, we've got it nailed.  It's the other five percent that give you the willies.  Five percent remain totally unexplained...  We're talking about generals, we're talking about airline pilots, we're talking about governors of states, who claim that this is beyond our understanding of the laws of physics...  We've got multiple sightings from multiple sources.  Pilots, other eyewitnesses, radar.  These are very hard to dismiss...  And those are worth investigating with an open mind."

Which, I have to admit, is a good point.  However, it bears mention that Kaku himself has come under fire for his unorthodoxy, and in fact many of his colleagues think he's seriously gone off the rails, either because he's honestly crazy or because he knows that sensationalist pseudoscience sells.  (An especially scathing critique is the seriously unflattering RationalWiki page on Kaku and his claims.)

But this hasn't discouraged both the true believers and the skeptics who agree with Kaku that despite the complete lack of hard evidence, there's still something here worth investigating.  And they've found a couple of unlikely allies recently -- a retired intelligence officer named Luis Elizondo, and (of all people) Tom DeLonge, former front man for the rock band Blink-182.

Elizondo and DeLonge are unequivocal that we need to look into this further.  "Despite overwhelming evidence at both the classified and unclassified levels," Elizondo wrote, "certain individuals in the Department remain staunchly opposed to further research on what could be a tactical threat to our pilots, sailors, and soldiers, and perhaps even an existential threat to our national security."

It bears mention that Michio Kaku (in the interview I linked above) also emphasized the potential threat.  Any civilization that had mastered interstellar travel would likely be ahead of us, technologically, by thousands or even millions of years, and would view us much like we view an anthill -- as being not only not that interesting, but essentially expendable.  "There's no reason an advanced alien civilization would come bearing gifts and ask to be taken to our leader, any more than we bring crickets to ants and ask to speak with the queen."

DeLonge's involvement is curious, not because he's a true believer -- heaven knows, a lot of celebrities have odd ideas -- but because Elizondo and the others trying to convince the government to look into UFOs more seriously are mostly ex-government staffers and scientists, such as Jim Semivan (formerly of the CIA's National Clandestine Service), Robert Bigelow (a Nevada-based defense contractor), Chris Mellon (Deputy ­Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence during the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations), and Hal Puthoff (formerly employed by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency).  Including a musician makes for a little bit of an odd partnership.

And honestly, DeLonge seems to be involved mostly to get the message out, especially to younger people.  Elizondo is very cognizant of his sales pitch, and his quest is to reach as many influential people as possible.  Having a rocker on your side never hurts, publicity-wise.

As for me, I don't think there's anything wrong with further investigations.  After all, there could be something to some of those sightings.  Even though I tend to be in Tyson's camp, and believe that most UFO sightings are explainable from purely terrestrial causes (including the propensity of people to make shit up), I also agree with Kaku that if there's five percent -- hell, if there's one percent -- of the UFO sightings that are legitimate and have defied conventional explanation, they're worth looking into.

Plus, there's just the fact that I would really love it if intelligent aliens existed.  There's a reason I have this poster on my classroom wall:

I would rather it if the aliens turned out to be friendly, of course.  I could do without having Earth invaded by Vogons, the Borg, the Draconians, the Cardassians, Shoggoths, the Slitheen, Xenomorphs, or the Tcho-Tcho People.  Vulcans would be more what I'm hoping for.

But I guess in these circumstances, you shouldn't be picky.

So I'll keep hoping, however the skeptical side of me keeps telling me not to hold my breath.

******************************

This week's Skeptophilia book recommendation is a fun one.  If you've never read anything by Mary Roach, you don't know what you're missing.  She investigates various human phenomena -- eating, space travel, sex, death, and war being a few of the ones she's tackled -- and writes about them with an analytical lens and a fantastically light sense of humor.  This week, my recommendation is Spook, in which she looks at the idea of an afterlife, trying to find out if there's anything to it from a scientific perspective.  It's an engaging, and at times laugh-out-loud funny, read.

[If you purchase the book from Amazon using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to supporting Skeptophilia!]

Interesting times

A few days ago, I started reading Michio Kaku's wonderful book Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century.  The book is fascinating, buoyed up by Kaku's ebullient writing style and endless optimism about our future, touching on the possibilities of artificial intelligence, planet-wide information systems with unfettered access for all, medical advances that could extend (healthy) life span to perhaps twice what it is now, and the ability to harness clean energy sources that are for all intents and purposes inexhaustible.  He suggests that our species, in a time that on the grand scale is a snap of the fingers, will be heading for the stars.

At the same time, here on Earth things are looking pretty awful, as if we'd finally succumbed to the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times."  Only a few hours ago, we here in the United States had yet another senseless mass shooting, this time an attack on a center for the developmentally disabled in San Bernardino, California.  The attack left fourteen confirmed dead and an equal number injured; the suspects are, at the time of this writing, still at large, and their motives for attacking the center are unknown.  Just a few days ago, an ultrareligious right-winger killed three people and wounded nine at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs.  Many have linked the attack to vitriolic rhetoric from so-called Pro-Lifers like Joshua Feuerstein, who has suggested that doctors who perform abortions deserve to be murdered.  We have one presidential candidate who has openly praised noted conspiracy theorist loon Alex Jones; another claimed yesterday that "the majority of violent criminals are Democrats."  Further afield, the UK Parliament has given the go-ahead for bombing Syria, ISIS has murdered a Russian captive in retaliation for air strikes against ISIS-held areas, our "allies" in Saudi Arabia are very likely in the next few days to behead Ali Al-Nimr, a protestor who was arrested when he was only 17, and in general the world just seems to be a fucked-up morass of misery, hatred, horror, and death.

I'm an optimistic guy, for the most part.  I have always been firmly convinced that most people, most of the time, are doing their level best to act morally and responsibly.  I've also been a strong believer in the idea that you don't have to agree with someone in order to get along with them.  I've had more than one cheerful pint of beer with a friend whose political views are (to say the least) opposite to mine.  I'm a staunch atheist, but have dear friends who are Jews, Christians, Buddhists, and Wiccans. (I'm not leaving out Muslims deliberately; I just don't happen to be close pals with any.)

But in the current atmosphere, when the tenor of the news seems to be paralleling the diminishment of the light as we approach the winter solstice, it's hard to keep those ideals in mind.  It becomes increasingly easy to give in to despair, to decide that humanity isn't really worth saving, that any good we do is outweighed by the tremendous evils that we visit on each other for reasons of religion, race, belief, and sometimes for no reason at all.

Still, we do some beautiful things sometimes.  Billionaire Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has pledged 99% of his share revenues to charities connected with personalized learning, curing diseases, connecting people and community building.  The Planned Parenthood clinic that was attacked has been the focus of two separate fundraising drives, one through GoFundMe and the other through YouCaring.

But I keep coming back to the heartache of why we, here in the 21st century, are still having to face people being murdered for wanting control of their own bodies, for wanting to be able to speak freely and criticize their governments, for simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  It's so far from Kaku's idyllic space-age wonderland that I find myself wondering if the human race will survive long enough to meet even one of his high-flown predictions.

I think the solution lies with the like-minded sticking together, and telling each other that there are still good people in the world, that we will make it through these dark times.  That the days will lengthen, winter will warm into spring, and (perhaps even!) the news will one day be dominated by positive stories.  We have to remain optimistic; if we don't, if the good people of the world give up and succumb to despair, then the evil really will have won.

[image courtesy of NASA]

I will leave you with a poem that I first discovered when I was 13 years old.  I still can't read it without choking up; not too long ago I tried to read it out loud to my son when he was going through a rough patch, and we both ended up bawling.  I think it's more relevant now than when it was written by Max Ehrmann, almost a hundred years ago.

Go placidly amid the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence.
As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant; they too have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexations to the spirit.
If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter;
for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans.
Keep interested in your career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals;
and everywhere life is full of heroism.
Be yourself.
Especially, do not feign affection.
Neither be critical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.
Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.
Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with imaginings;
Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness. Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself.
You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.
And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.
Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be,
and whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul.
With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy.

UFOs, eyewitnesses, and the persistence of hope

I have something of an obsession with aliens.

I own t-shirts with pictures of UFOs and little gray guys.  My favorite movie of all time is Contact.  I have a poster on the wall of my classroom of a glowering alien, purchased on my visit to the International UFO Museum in Roswell, New Mexico, and another one that is a replica of the spaceship poster from Fox Mulder's office in The X Files -- the one with the caption, "I Want to Believe."

I daily peruse reports on sites like UFO World News and Latest UFO Sightings and Real UFOs and The UFO Casebook, wherein we get to read reports like the following:

Orlando, Florida - 08-19-13 To give a better idea of the area, I am right near UCF and out west from here is the executive airport; it is not uncommon to see many planes flying in an east/west fashion here.

I was on my back porch grilling and noticed a light hanging in the sky, off toward the west.

Initially I thought "Far off plane, no big deal."

I suppose it must have seemed a little strange when I first spotted in retrospect, because I remember thinking "I am going to watch this thing move, it's certainly a plane."

Well, what originally looked like landing lights began to seem a little less so; the longer the thing held its position and size in the air.

The thing was hovering and sort of pulsating and possibly rotating at times.

The light would change from red to blue to white to greenish almost randomly, but at times would seem to follow a sequence as well.

It was slowly descending over the 30-40 minute period, sometimes making abrupt motions. Overall, its motions were slow, though.

And no, I never seem to get tired of reading this stuff.

Of all of the wild claims I hear, I think an alien visitation to Earth is the one that I would be the most excited about, should it turn out to be true.  And I'm not alone; eminent physicist and science writer Michio Kaku has weighed in on the topic, saying, "95% of UFO sightings can be immediately identified as the planet Venus, weather balloons, weather anomalies, swamp gas, you name it, we’ve got it nailed.  It’s the 5% that give you the willies.  5% remain totally unexplained."

And, he says, we should seriously investigate that 5%.

Now, far be it from me to contradict a brilliant man like Dr. Kaku, but my first thought when I heard him say this was, "What, precisely, does he want the scientists to investigate?"  In virtually all of these cases, all we have is eyewitness testimony -- which is notoriously unreliable, and leaves nothing behind for an investigator to study.  Even in cases where the witness isn't lying outright, there's no guarantee that the person is recalling correctly what (s)he saw, or not misinterpreting some completely natural, terrestrial phenomenon.  Thus this handy chart for identifying what you see up in the sky:

In all seriousness, I think the issue here is very much whether there is anything at all in this realm that qualifies as evidence.  In the case of the sighting from Orlando, Florida, quoted above, should an astronomer be contacted, the question very much remains to be asked what exactly it is that the eyewitness wants the scientist to do about it.  Okay, you saw some flashing lights.  So?  How is that a scientific claim, one that I could evaluate on the basis of rational inquiry?

Some UFO enthusiasts believe that the sheer volume of claims indicates that there is something real to all of it (and you also hear an undercurrent of conspiracy there, too, in that some of them believe that the US government is actively suppressing those claims).  To which I respond: yeah, and recent polls indicate that 46% of the citizens of the United States believe that the Earth is less than ten thousand years old.  Science, fortunately, is not done by popular majority vote.

So, sad to say, there's still not sufficient hard evidence (i.e. any) to believe that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations are visiting the Earth.  Still less that it happens dozens of times a day, which is the impression you get from reading the reports on UFO websites.  It's a shame, really.  Think of how many cool things that a real alien visitation would show -- that we were not alone in the universe, that biological life and intelligence can evolve on other worlds, that interstellar flight was possible.  But at the moment, if we're being honest, we have to hold off on that conclusion -- the fair thing, in the absence of evidence, is to keep our desire for an answer in abeyance.

Forever, if need be.

That doesn't mean, however, that I'm going to take down my posters or stop reading the reports from MUFON (The Mutual UFO Network). 

A guy can keep hoping, after all.

Happy World UFO Day!

Well, allow me to be the first to wish you a happy World UFO Day.

I'll bet most of you didn't even know it was World UFO Day.  It is, and this event, like many wacky things in this world, has its own website.  And on this website, we learn what this international event is all about:

There are several reasons why this day has found it's [sic] way into the world.
On [sic] of the first and foremost reasons is to raise awareness about the undoubted existence of UFO's and with that intelligent beings from outer space.

Also this day is used to encourage governments to unclassify their knowledge about sightings throughout the history. Many governments, the US government for instance, are believed to have gained exclusive information about UFO's through their military departments. A subject that still raises a lot of curiosity is the Roswell incident in 1947 when a believed UFO crashed in Roswell New Mexico.

And on this day, here's what we're supposed to do:

It is encouraged for individual believers to organize their own parties during World UFO day. People are known for looking at the sky together during this day and doing other UFO themed activities. For instance watching UFO movies together even meditate in groups on the subject. The most important thing is that people collectively open their minds to the subject for one day and send out the message mentally that UFO's are welcome on this earth.

I'm not so sure how I feel about the last bit.  I mean, don't these people generally believe that the aliens are hostile?  Seems to me that whenever I have watched a UFO movie, humans end up being abducted, and it usually results in a wince-inducing scene involving an examining table, restraining straps, and various types of probes.  And call me a wuss, but I really don't feel much like meditating on that.

Apparently, though, there are a lot of people who do.  On the list of "participating groups," I found that just the "Dubai Research Congregation" alone has 2,500 members.   In fact, 21 groups are listed, each with their own website or Facebook page, for a total of over 158,000 members.

If meditating on UFO movies doesn't appeal, though, there are suggestions on the website for other ways to celebrate this holiday.  These include:

• Watch the sky together and spot strange object [sic] flying around.
• Wear or create your own UFO/alien t-shirts.
• Share knowledge (books, videos, etc.) with proof that UFOs exist.
• Create original looking UFOs out of frisbees or perform other creative actions. 

And all of this is to move forward with their vision statement, to wit:

Our main vision is to take a worldwide celebrated holiday and make people aware of the UFO phenomenon during this day. We see a future in which UFOs aren't speculations anymore, but part of daily life.

I'm not so sure I see that future, myself.  I'd love to think that there is alien life out there, and it'd be flat-out awesome if there was some science and technology humans haven't discovered yet that would allow us to travel over interstellar distances.  But these people are making Earth sound like Grand Central Station, with the UFOs arriving daily in such numbers that it's a wonder they don't end up in giant traffic jams over our airspace.  Now, no one would think it was cooler than me if a spaceship landed in my back yard (provided I wasn't right earlier about the restraints and probes).  And especially with the recent discovery of thousands of exoplanets, I think that the likelihood of a good many of them being homes to life is quite high.

But still.  Why the hell would they want to come here?  I mean, I like it here, but you'd think that if you could whisk your way across the galaxy, there would have to be more interesting places to go.  A superintelligent alien race coming to Earth is a little like some teenager finally getting his driver's license and a car, and his parents tell him he can take a road trip anywhere he wants during the summer, and he thinks, "I know!  I'll drive... to Newark!"

Be that as it may, there are some very intelligent people who think there might be something to the whole UFO thing.  Most famously, Michio Kaku said, in an interview on Larry King Live, "95% of these sightings can be dismissed, but 5% of them really give you the willies.  5% of them can't be explained easily with the known laws of physics...  We’ve looked at all the alternatives. These are multiple sightings by multiple modes. That is, pilots, eyewitnesses (on the ground), radar, visual sightings. These are very hard to dismiss, this handful of sightings...  We’re talking about generals, Air Force pilots, governors of states that claim, 'Hey, this is beyond our understanding of the laws of physics.'"

So, maybe my inclination to scoff is ill-founded.  If Kaku, with his training in the principles of scientific induction, not to mention his general good sense, can be this open-minded about the whole issue, who am I to say he's wrong?  So, in that spirit, I will wish you all a happy World UFO Day.  Enjoy your movies, meditations, and "creative actions" such as making a UFO out of a frisbee.  And I especially want to give a cheerful wave to our friends in the "Dubai Research Congregation."