Skeptophilia (skep-to-fil-i-a) (n.) - the love of logical thought, skepticism, and thinking critically. Being an exploration of the applications of skeptical thinking to the world at large, with periodic excursions into linguistics, music, politics, cryptozoology, and why people keep seeing the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches.
Showing posts with label choices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label choices. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

The problem of choice

I was telling a friend about my current novel work-in-progress, Nightingale, a couple of days ago, and he asked me an interesting question: to what extent is the main character... me?

On the surface, it seems like there's very little in common.  Simon de Montbard is the scion of minor French nobility in the thirteenth century, and gets himself involved in political intrigue that takes him to the king's court in Paris, then to Scotland, and finally to the Holy Land.  He was crippled as an infant by polio, with the result of partial one-sided facial paralysis and a stunted right leg.  His physical deficits result in his being continually misjudged and devalued; this was a culture where deformities of any kind were considered to be God's punishment for some kind of sin, and always to go along with mental and spiritual defects.  He has to prove himself, again and again, to every new person he meets.

Montbard, France, where Simon grew up [Image is licensed under the Creative Commons Benjamin Smith, Montbard - Brenne - 2, CC BY-SA 4.0]

But internally -- yeah, there's a lot of similarity.  Simon's struggles have made him hesitant, slow to trust, taciturn.  But despite his reluctance to engage, there's a deep yearning for more from life than what he thought he'd have -- managing the family estate, leading a life of idleness and the privileges of being comfortably wealthy during a time when the vast majority of people never had enough to eat.  Because of that drive, he is impelled to take chances, almost despite himself.  Some work out well; he finds deep and abiding love in a very unexpected person.  Others -- not so much.  People he trusted take advantage of him, eventually cornering him into a situation where he has no choice but to kill someone, an event that overshadows the entire rest of his life.  All along the way, he questions whether he's made the right choices -- or, indeed, if he even could have chosen differently.

And throughout, he receives guidance from Procellus, the mysterious, quasi-angelic figure whom no one else but Simon seems to be able to see or hear.  Is he a figment of Simon's imagination, an internal guide made external -- or something more real?  In the ship on the way to the Holy Land, they have the following conversation:

“What awaits us in the Holy Land?” I asked Procellus.

“You know I cannot tell you that.”  A faint smile touched his lips, but his expression still held sadness.

“But you know.”

He shrugged.  “I know some. Other things—well, as I said, it is still up to you.  Your whole path until this very moment, every step of the way, you might have chosen differently, and the trajectory of your life would have had a very different shape.  I’ve never forced you to do anything.  It’s always been your choice.”

“It feels like fate.”

“That’s only because you’re seeing it from the perspective of right now.  From that vantage point each step you take shapes the next one, but the destination lies in deep shadow.  But it is the way of all humans, is it not?  So do not worry yourself overmuch about the possibility of getting to the end of your life and finding you did not choose perfectly every time.  If you can lie down on that last day and smile, and say, ‘I did well enough with what I knew at the time, and things worked out as they should have’ you will be far ahead of most.”

“But even so, Procellus—people will still harm each other and deceive each other and… die.”

I almost couldn’t choke out the final word.

“Yes.”

“No matter what I do.”

“Yes.  But don’t take that to mean you don’t make a difference.  Each person’s choices create what is.  There is no such thing as an insignificant choice.”

It's something I've wrestled with all my life.  What would my life have been if I'd made different choices?  What I've many times called "the worst decision I ever made" -- to live at home while I went to college, instead of venturing out and going somewhere out-of-state, a decision made purely out of fear of the unknown -- would have led to my not meeting people who have been friends ever since.  I would never have met my first wife, so my two sons wouldn't have been born.  I'd never have moved to Seattle, and might not have ended up in a 32-year career of teaching in which I touched hundreds of lives. 

Or, what if I'd come out as queer when I knew it -- age seventeen -- rather than staying in the closet until I was 54?  I could have lived life more authentically, and avoided years of fear and shame.  But -- this would have been in the 1970s in a very religious, conservative part of the country.  And I was in my early twenties at the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, when testing positive was still pretty much a death sentence.  I can easily imagine myself being one of those first victims.

Everything is contingent.

Or maybe -- nothing is.  Is it the way Procellus describes it, that we could all along have made different choices?  Or that choices only seem like choices with the benefit of hindsight, and we truly did the only things we could have done given who we were, and what the circumstances were, at the time? 

This gets into the whole issue of free will versus determinism, which has been debated endlessly and upon which I am dramatically unqualified to weigh in.  Interestingly, just a couple of days ago, physicist Sabine Hossenfelder commented on a paper alleging to show that quantum physics precludes the possibility of free will.  The claim hinges on the no-cloning theorem of quantum physics, which seems to forbid our making high-fidelity models of reality in our own minds, rendering us incapable of representing choices well enough to made decisions.  She was dubious that the argument holds water, and like her, I seriously doubt this will settle the matter to anyone's satisfaction.

So, like Simon, I'm stuck endlessly questioning my decisions, and wondering if I chose right, or if I even could have chosen any differently.

Anyhow, in answer to my friend's question; yeah, I guess Simon de Montbard is a lot like me, if not in the circumstantial characteristics, in the deeper, internal ones.  Maybe we authors do this all the time, though -- writing out our own victories and tragedies, joys and sorrows, through our characters.  Writing as therapy, in the hopes that others who have been through similar situations will find it as therapeutic to read.

And -- back to work on Nightingale.  I'm three-quarters of the way through, but Simon still has a long voyage yet to take.  I hope to finish it early in 2026; we'll see how it goes.  It's been an interesting story to tell, featuring a few pivotal points in history, including the beginning of the Scottish Civil War, the Siege of Acre, and the collapse of the Templars.  But I hope that when it's done, it'll be the characters who stay with you.  They seem so real to me it's almost like I know them, as if I'm witnessing what real people are doing and simply writing it down.  A story I am somehow compelled to tell, and about which I have little agency to change.

Whether that sense of compulsion is itself an illusion is beyond my ability to parse.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The cost of regret

"But what would have been the good?"

Aslan said nothing.

"You mean," said Lucy rather faintly, "that it would have turned out all right – somehow?  But how?  Please, Aslan!  Am I not to know?"

"To know what would have happened, child?" said Aslan.  "No.  Nobody is ever told that."

"Oh dear," said Lucy.

"But anyone can find out what will happen," said Aslan.  "If you go back to the others now, and wake them up; and tell them you have seen me again; and that you must all get up at once and follow me – what will happen?  There is only one way of finding out."
This passage, from C. S. Lewis's novel Prince Caspian, has always struck me with particular poignancy, because one of the most consistent themes of my life has been regret at not having made different decisions.  People I dearly wish I had not hurt.  Opportunities I passed up because of my shyness and risk-aversion.  More specific ones, like my (all things considered) terrible decision to live at home while going to college.  My (at the time) barely-acknowledged choice to keep my bisexuality hidden for decades.

It's not, mind you, that I'm unhappy with my life as it is.  I have a wonderful wife, two sons I'm proud of, and spent 32 years in a rewarding career that I discovered quite by accident,  as a consequence of other seemingly unrelated decisions I made.  I have seventeen books in print, something I have dreamed about since elementary school.  I live in a wonderful part of the world, and have had the good fortune to travel and see dozens of other wonderful places.

And I'm aware of the fact that things could have turned out far worse.  Whatever else you can say about the decision, my choice to live at home during college, with conservative, strait-laced parents who kept close tabs on me, kept me out of all sorts of trouble I might otherwise have gotten into.  If I'd come out as bisexual in college, it would have been in around 1980 -- and this was right at the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, when the disease was still poorly understood, and a diagnosis was tantamount to a death sentence.

There's any number of ways the course of my life could have been deflected into an alternate path, and led me to somewhere very different.  Big decisions -- where to go to college, who to marry, what career to pursue.  Tiny actions with big effects, such as Donna Noble's choice of which direction to turn at an intersection in the mind-blowing Doctor Who episode "Turn Left" -- and of which in my own case I'm almost certainly unaware because looking back, they seem entirely insignificant.  


As I said, I like my life just fine.  Even so, I've never been able to shuck the regret, and more than that the fact that like Lucy Pevensie in Prince Caspian, I'll never know what would have happened had I done otherwise.

The topic comes up because of a fascinating paper in the journal Psychological Science called "The Lure of Counterfactual Curiosity: People Incur a Cost to Experience Regret," by Lily FitzGibbon and Kou Muryama (of the University of Reading), and Asuka Komiya (of Hiroshima University).  They did a risk/choice/reward assessment task with 150 adults, and after the task was completed, the volunteers are allowed to pay for information about how they would have fared had they chosen differently.

It turns out, people are willing to pay a lot, even when they find out that they chose poorly (i.e. they would have had a greater reward had they made a different choice), and even though knowledge of their poor decision causes regret, self-doubt, and worse performance on subsequent tasks.  The authors write:
After one makes a decision, it is common to reflect not only on the outcome that was achieved but also on what might have been.  For example, one might consider whether going to a party would have been more fun than staying home to work on a manuscript.  These counterfactual comparisons can have negative emotional consequences; they can lead to the experience of regret.  In the current study, we examined a commonly observed yet understudied aspect of counterfactual comparisons: the motivational lure of counterfactual information—counterfactual curiosity.  Specifically, we found that people are so strongly seduced to know counterfactual information that they are willing to incur costs for information about how much they could have won, even if the information is likely to trigger negative emotions (regret) and is noninstrumental to obtaining rewards.
Why would people seek out information when they know ahead of time it is likely to make them feel bad?  The authors write:
One explanation for seeking negative information is that people may also find it interesting to test their emotional responses—a mechanism that might also underlie so-called morbid curiosity.  Counterfactual information of the kind sought in the current experiments may be desirable because it has high personal relevance—it relates to decisions that one has made in the recent past.  People’s desire for information about their own performance is known to be strong enough to overcome cognitive biases such as inequality aversion.  Thus, opportunities to learn about oneself and the actual and counterfactual consequences of one’s decisions may have powerful motivational status.
Chances are, if I was able to do what Donna did in "Turn Left" and see the outcome had I chosen differently, I'd find the results for my life's path would be better in some aspects and worse in others.  Like everything, it's a mixed bag.  Given the opportunity to go back in time and actually change something -- well, tempting as it would be, I would be mighty hesitant to take that step and risk everything I currently have and have accomplished.

But still -- I'd like to know.  Even if in some cases, I'd have done far better making a different choice, and then would add the certainty of having made a bad decision on top of the more diffuse regret I already have.  The temptation to find out would be almost irresistible.

Maybe it's better, honestly, that we don't see the long-term consequences of our actions.  Fortunate, to put it in Aslan's words, that "Nobody is ever told that."  It's hard enough living with knowing you fell short or behaved badly; how much worse it would be if we saw that things could have been far better if we'd only chosen differently.

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Just last week, I wrote about the internal voice most of us live with, babbling at us constantly -- sometimes with novel or creative ideas, but most of the time (at least in my experience) with inane nonsense.  The fact that this internal voice is nearly ubiquitous, and what purpose it may serve, is the subject of psychologist Ethan Kross's wonderful book Chatter: The Voice in our Head, Why it Matters, and How to Harness It, released this month and already winning accolades from all over.

Chatter not only analyzes the inner voice in general terms, but looks at specific case studies where the internal chatter brought spectacular insight -- or short-circuited the individual's ability to function entirely.  It's a brilliant analysis of something we all experience, and gives some guidance not only into how to quiet it when it gets out of hand, but to harness it for boosting our creativity and mental agility.

If you're a student of your own inner mental workings, Chatter is a must-read!

[Note: if you purchase this book using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]