A question I'm frequently asked is why I'm so vehemently against woo-woo beliefs. What harm does it do if someone believes in astrology or the Psychic Hot Line? And even if it's a belief that impels someone to spend their hard-earned cash -- like the millions of dollars wasted annually on homeopathic "remedies" -- well, it's their choice, right? Really, how much harm does it do?
The answer is: a lot. Belief in irrational bullshit can do a lot of harm.
I ran into an example of this just yesterday. [Source] Most of you by now have probably heard of the death of Jenni Rivera, the Latina "Diva de la Banda" whose music is immensely popular amongst Hispanics and non-Hispanics alike. Rivera was killed in a plane crash on Sunday near the town of Iturbide, Mexico, while on the way to a planned concert in Mexico City. Officials in Iturbide confirmed the crash of the plane, saying that there were no survivors; radar tracking of the aircraft indicates that it lost 28,000 feet of altitude in the last 30 seconds before it struck a mountainside. One person who visited the site said that the plane struck so violently that what's left of it is "scattered like a wash of pebbles."
A horrible tragedy for Rivera's family, friends, and fans. But things suddenly got worse on Monday, when a "psychic" named Gilbert Salas posted on his Facebook that he was certain that Rivera and her makeup artist, Jacob Yebale, who was traveling with her, were still alive.
"Yes it is correct that Jenni Rivera is still alive," Salas wrote.
"I believe Jenni and her makeup artists survived, they are located 12
miles west from where they believe the wreckage occurred. It is located
behind the mountain on theunderbelly [sic] side near a canyon. It is not
visible from an aerial view because it is in a covered area. She is
near a stream and she is able to hear the search teams fly overhead
that's how close they are to her."
The result is that the family members have launched a campaign to rescue the injured singer and her companion -- and no one has been more insistent about this than Rivera's eleven-year-old son, Johnny Lopez Rivera. "My mama is alive," the boy tweeted on Monday, after reading Salas' post. "I lost hope but I got it back. She is not dead." Lopez Rivera and other members of Jenni Rivera's family have become so insistent that the singer survived that the hashtag #SaveJenni has trended on Twitter.
Of course, no one who has actual information about the crash thinks there is the remotest likelihood that anyone survived. It's not like there haven't been people at the crash site; eyewitnesses to the wreckage say that the plane was so thoroughly destroyed that there's barely anything recognizable, only twisted bits of scrap metal, cloth, and body parts. But facts barely matter when hope and tragedy meet -- especially when that hope is buoyed by someone who claims miraculous, supernatural knowledge of the situation.
This isn't the first time psychics have given the victims of tragedies false hope, only to be dashed when the real circumstances are confirmed. But somehow, these consistent failures never seem to keep the psychics from doing the same thing again -- or keep next bunch of bereaved loved ones from believing them. And of course, there's nothing illegal about what these charlatans are doing. Convincing someone that a lie is the truth isn't a crime, more's the pity.
But I do have to agree with the commentator quoted in Sharon Hill's wonderful blog Doubtful News, in response to the Rivera story: "If there is a hell, there is a special circle reserved for psychics who pull this crap."
Friday, December 14, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Ballard, the Black Sea, and the bible
Biblical literalists are crowing with delight over a recent news story that is being widely reported (and subsequently linked and circulated all over the place). Most iterations of this piece have titles like the version I found on ABC News Online: "New Evidence Suggests Biblical Flood Happened, Says Robert Ballard."
The upshot of the story is that Ballard, a prominent archaeologist (and the man whose team located the Titanic), believes that the Black Sea may have once been the site of a catastrophic flood. What is now a deep, salty body of water was once a freshwater lake whose surface was far below sea level -- the seawater being held back from filling it by an ice dam across what is now the Straits of Bosporus. As the weather warmed up following the last ice age, the ice dam receded and finally collapsed, allowing for a sudden, huge inrush of water from the Mediterranean, filling the Black Sea to its current level and drowning anyone who was in the way.
Such events are thought to have occurred elsewhere. A flood of that sort seems to have happened in the current St. Lawrence Seaway (dumping enough fresh water into the North Atlantic to stop the Atlantic Conveyor for a time and causing a second, shorter ice age), and the Columbia River Valley (creating the "Channeled Scablands" of eastern Washington and Oregon). So Ballard's idea is fascinating, and quite in line with our current understanding of glacial geology. Further, it's not unprecedented to have a real event recalled, and mythologized, often many centuries after it happened; so it's entirely possible that this event was the origin of the biblical flood story, and also similar accounts in other traditions (such as the flood mentioned in Gilgamesh).
But of course, this is not how it was reported. The story strongly implies that Ballard is saying that his evidence indicates that the "Great Flood of Noah" actually occurred, as described in the bible -- which is an outright misrepresentation of Ballard's position.
Don't believe me? Here are actual quotes from the ABC News Online article:
If I were Ballard, I'd be pissed.
So, let's just get a few things straight, here. Saying that a bunch of Bronze-Age sheepherders tried to rationalize a cataclysmic flood that washed away bunches of their ancestors by making up a story about god smiting the world for its wickedness is not the same thing as saying that the flood, as per the Book of Genesis, actually occurred. The breaking of an ice dam is not the same thing as it "raining for forty days and forty nights." If an ice dam near your house broke, releasing millions of tons of seawater, you would not have time to build an ark, you would only have time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. You would also not have time to run really quickly and get a pair of wombats from Australia and a pair of three-toed sloths from Brazil, and so on. And while the amount of water in the Black Sea is what is known in scientific circles as "a crapload of water," it does not amount to the entire Earth being covered with water.
The idea of a global flood is, to put not too fine a point on it, unscientific, unsupported, zero-evidence horse waste. The fact that ABC News Online, and many other media outlets, reported Ballard's fascinating work as supporting the literal account of the bible is crummy journalism, and the reporters who produced this hack job of a story should be ashamed of themselves.
The upshot of the story is that Ballard, a prominent archaeologist (and the man whose team located the Titanic), believes that the Black Sea may have once been the site of a catastrophic flood. What is now a deep, salty body of water was once a freshwater lake whose surface was far below sea level -- the seawater being held back from filling it by an ice dam across what is now the Straits of Bosporus. As the weather warmed up following the last ice age, the ice dam receded and finally collapsed, allowing for a sudden, huge inrush of water from the Mediterranean, filling the Black Sea to its current level and drowning anyone who was in the way.
Such events are thought to have occurred elsewhere. A flood of that sort seems to have happened in the current St. Lawrence Seaway (dumping enough fresh water into the North Atlantic to stop the Atlantic Conveyor for a time and causing a second, shorter ice age), and the Columbia River Valley (creating the "Channeled Scablands" of eastern Washington and Oregon). So Ballard's idea is fascinating, and quite in line with our current understanding of glacial geology. Further, it's not unprecedented to have a real event recalled, and mythologized, often many centuries after it happened; so it's entirely possible that this event was the origin of the biblical flood story, and also similar accounts in other traditions (such as the flood mentioned in Gilgamesh).
But of course, this is not how it was reported. The story strongly implies that Ballard is saying that his evidence indicates that the "Great Flood of Noah" actually occurred, as described in the bible -- which is an outright misrepresentation of Ballard's position.
Don't believe me? Here are actual quotes from the ABC News Online article:
The story of Noah's Ark and the Great Flood is one of the most famous from the Bible, and now an acclaimed underwater archaeologist thinks he has found proof that the biblical flood was actually based on real events.Buried in the center of the article is a bit that says, "The theory goes on to suggest that the story of this traumatic event, seared into the collective memory of the survivors, was passed down from generation to generation and eventually inspired the biblical account of Noah," but this is so colossally outweighed by all of the biblical references that Ballard is made to look like some kind of literalist wacko out there diving into the Black Sea looking for evidence of a flood whose only survivors were the family of a 600 year old man.
Now Ballard is using even more advanced robotic technology to travel farther back in time. He is on a marine archeological mission that might support the story of Noah.
By carbon dating shells found along the shoreline, Ballard said he believes they have established a timeline for that catastrophic event, which he estimates happened around 5,000 BC. Some experts believe this was around the time when Noah's flood could have occurred.
Noah is described in the Bible as a family man, a father of three, who is about to celebrate his 600th birthday.
Regardless of whether the details of the Noah story are historically accurate, Armstrong (author of A History of God) believes this story and all the Biblical stories are telling us "about our predicament in the world now."
Ballard does not think he will ever find Noah's Ark, but he does think he may find evidence of a people whose entire world was washed away about 7,000 years ago.
If I were Ballard, I'd be pissed.
So, let's just get a few things straight, here. Saying that a bunch of Bronze-Age sheepherders tried to rationalize a cataclysmic flood that washed away bunches of their ancestors by making up a story about god smiting the world for its wickedness is not the same thing as saying that the flood, as per the Book of Genesis, actually occurred. The breaking of an ice dam is not the same thing as it "raining for forty days and forty nights." If an ice dam near your house broke, releasing millions of tons of seawater, you would not have time to build an ark, you would only have time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. You would also not have time to run really quickly and get a pair of wombats from Australia and a pair of three-toed sloths from Brazil, and so on. And while the amount of water in the Black Sea is what is known in scientific circles as "a crapload of water," it does not amount to the entire Earth being covered with water.
The idea of a global flood is, to put not too fine a point on it, unscientific, unsupported, zero-evidence horse waste. The fact that ABC News Online, and many other media outlets, reported Ballard's fascinating work as supporting the literal account of the bible is crummy journalism, and the reporters who produced this hack job of a story should be ashamed of themselves.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Gangnam Style, Nostradamus, and the end of the world
This morning I have a poem for you, Dear Readers. See what you make of it.
If you think you know the answer to the first half of the question, it's probably because of two things: (1) its characteristic style, laid out in four short phrases, with no obvious rhyme or rhythmic structure; and (2) its wacky, opaque imagery. This by itself is probably enough for you to conclude that it must be one of the famous "quatrains of Nostradamus," the writings of renowned 16th century wingnut Michel de Nostredame (1503-1566), who, depending upon whom you believe, either was a prescient seer who has correctly predicted everything from the assassination of JFK to Hurricane Sandy, or a wacko crank who wrote down predictions that are so vague that they could be interpreted any way you want.
Guess which I believe.
Of course, probably most of you knew about Nostradamus already, and in any case the subject of his overall veracity has been beaten unto death in other venues. Why, then, did I begin this post with one of his quatrains?
Two reasons, actually. The first is that there is currently a claim zinging its way around the internet to the effect that this quatrain was referring to Psy's viral hit "Gangnam Style" (the "dancing horse"), which came out of Korea (the "land of the calm morning"), recently topped one billion hits (nine zeroes -- "nine circles"), and that this means that the world will end, undoubtedly a week from Friday, As Spoken In The Prophecy.
Add this to the fact that Nostradamus himself was born (according to his Wikipedia entry) either on December 14 or December 21, 1503, and I think we have here what the lawyers like to call "an airtight case."
Well, except for the second reason I posted all of this, which is: this isn't actually one of Nostradamus' quatrains.
The origin of the claim was someone who posted it on the phenomenally wacky site Godlike Productions (see the original post here), and interestingly, it almost instantly got called out as bullshit by people who (like I did) took the extra two minutes to see if the quote was actually from Nostradamus. (If you want to spend a few hours turning your brain into cream of mushroom soup, all of Nostradamus' predictions are available here. You won't, if you're wondering, find any mention of a "dancing horse" in any of them.) Eventually the original poster admitted that he'd made it all up, but even with all of the screams of "Lies! It's all lies!" and the original poster's confession, this still made it out into the web as a valid claim. After that, it spiraled out of control, even making it onto mainstream media (I ran into it on The Examiner).
So, what we have here is a repeat of the ridiculous "Rebecca Black's 'Friday' is about the JFK assassination" incident, but with the added twist that even the guy who made it up admits that it was a hoax.
And yet, still people believe it. I have, to date, been asked three times by students if I'd "heard that Nostradamus said that 'Gangnam Style' was going to cause the Mayan apocalypse."
Now, don't get me wrong; it wouldn't surprise me if "Gangnam Style" triggered the End of the World. In fact, I thought Rebecca Black's "Friday" was going to do the same thing, and for the same reason; both songs are so bad that when people hear them, they suddenly feel an urge to stick objects into their ears, even if those objects happen to be screwdrivers. So I can see how either song, or (heaven forfend) both of them played one after the other, would cause massive mortality.
But as far as "Gangnam Style" having anything to do with Nostradamus, or the Mayan apocalypse, I'm afraid that the answer is "no." The only people who believe it are those who don't know how to do a source search. And the guy who originated the claim made the whole thing up. Which, now that I come to think of it, is all Nostradamus himself did, so I suppose it's fitting, somehow.
From the calm morning,Well, what do you think? Most especially, do you know where it's from, and what it means?
the end will come;
when of the dancing horse,
the number of circles will be nine.
If you think you know the answer to the first half of the question, it's probably because of two things: (1) its characteristic style, laid out in four short phrases, with no obvious rhyme or rhythmic structure; and (2) its wacky, opaque imagery. This by itself is probably enough for you to conclude that it must be one of the famous "quatrains of Nostradamus," the writings of renowned 16th century wingnut Michel de Nostredame (1503-1566), who, depending upon whom you believe, either was a prescient seer who has correctly predicted everything from the assassination of JFK to Hurricane Sandy, or a wacko crank who wrote down predictions that are so vague that they could be interpreted any way you want.
Guess which I believe.
Of course, probably most of you knew about Nostradamus already, and in any case the subject of his overall veracity has been beaten unto death in other venues. Why, then, did I begin this post with one of his quatrains?
Two reasons, actually. The first is that there is currently a claim zinging its way around the internet to the effect that this quatrain was referring to Psy's viral hit "Gangnam Style" (the "dancing horse"), which came out of Korea (the "land of the calm morning"), recently topped one billion hits (nine zeroes -- "nine circles"), and that this means that the world will end, undoubtedly a week from Friday, As Spoken In The Prophecy.
Add this to the fact that Nostradamus himself was born (according to his Wikipedia entry) either on December 14 or December 21, 1503, and I think we have here what the lawyers like to call "an airtight case."
Well, except for the second reason I posted all of this, which is: this isn't actually one of Nostradamus' quatrains.
The origin of the claim was someone who posted it on the phenomenally wacky site Godlike Productions (see the original post here), and interestingly, it almost instantly got called out as bullshit by people who (like I did) took the extra two minutes to see if the quote was actually from Nostradamus. (If you want to spend a few hours turning your brain into cream of mushroom soup, all of Nostradamus' predictions are available here. You won't, if you're wondering, find any mention of a "dancing horse" in any of them.) Eventually the original poster admitted that he'd made it all up, but even with all of the screams of "Lies! It's all lies!" and the original poster's confession, this still made it out into the web as a valid claim. After that, it spiraled out of control, even making it onto mainstream media (I ran into it on The Examiner).
So, what we have here is a repeat of the ridiculous "Rebecca Black's 'Friday' is about the JFK assassination" incident, but with the added twist that even the guy who made it up admits that it was a hoax.
And yet, still people believe it. I have, to date, been asked three times by students if I'd "heard that Nostradamus said that 'Gangnam Style' was going to cause the Mayan apocalypse."
Now, don't get me wrong; it wouldn't surprise me if "Gangnam Style" triggered the End of the World. In fact, I thought Rebecca Black's "Friday" was going to do the same thing, and for the same reason; both songs are so bad that when people hear them, they suddenly feel an urge to stick objects into their ears, even if those objects happen to be screwdrivers. So I can see how either song, or (heaven forfend) both of them played one after the other, would cause massive mortality.
But as far as "Gangnam Style" having anything to do with Nostradamus, or the Mayan apocalypse, I'm afraid that the answer is "no." The only people who believe it are those who don't know how to do a source search. And the guy who originated the claim made the whole thing up. Which, now that I come to think of it, is all Nostradamus himself did, so I suppose it's fitting, somehow.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Lights out
So apparently we don't already have enough nonsense being thrown about online regarding the End of the World, now the Tibetans have gotten involved. [Source]
I find it interesting how many folks here in the Western World automatically give more credence to a story if it comes from somewhere mystical-sounding. Look at how many "alternative medicine" treatments come from places like Peru, India, or the American Southwest (adding "Hopi" to a product's name is a sure-fire winner, which makes me wonder how the actual Hopi feel about all of this). Of course, being from one of those places is no guarantee of not being a complete raving wackmobile, as was evidenced just yesterday in a pronouncement by Gyandrek, a Tibetan lama, who sent the following highly illuminating message to NASA, which I present here verbatim:
Now, you're probably thinking, "Why are you even bothering to post this? How could anyone whose IQ exceeds his shoe size believe any of this? I mean, really?"
Apparently, tens of thousands of people in China could. According to a story in The Telegraph, there has been a run on candles and non-perishable food in local markets, because of the predictions of "continuous darkness" and fear that the electrical supply will fail. A 54-year-old university professor's wife in Nanjing took out a £100,000 mortgage on her £300,000 home and plans to give all of the money to underprivileged children, so that she can "do something meaningful before the world ends." (Hard to imagine how the underprivileged children are going to spend all of that money in just ten days, but at least the sentiment is nice.) The Chinese government has tried to counteract all of the silliness, putting out messages directing people to ignore any End-of-the-World nonsense, but apparently it's not having much effect.
For me, the effect is to make me weep softly while banging my forehead on my computer keyboard.
Let's just be clear about this, okay? The planets are not going to line up a week from Friday. We are not going to have two months, or even three days, of darkness at the solstice. There is no such thing as a "galactic zero band." And while I'm sure the Mayans and the Tibetans are lovely people, their ability to predict stuff kind of sucks. No one at NASA is taking any of this seriously, although I'm sure that their receptionist is going to be really glad when the 21st has come and gone so that (s)he can stop having to field calls from panicked wingnuts wondering what the scientists recommend doing to maximize your chances of surviving.
Of course, my tendency to scoff doesn't mean I can't have a little fun with the whole idea. As for me, I'm hosting a party on the 21st. We'll have plenty of high-fat food, and sugary desserts, because after all, we won't have to face any repercussions with our doctors if we're all dead (or ascended, or in the dark, depending on which version you go for). There will, of course, be lots of beer and wine. For the Rapture-minded, we'll have a Confess Your Sins booth, although offhand I can't think of any of our friends who is nearly holy enough to hear confession and grant absolution. My wife wanted to dress up as either a Mayan princess or like Tina Turner in Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome, but the costume store was all out of both of those, so she's just going to surprise me. As for me, I'm coming as a zombie, and just hope that no one thinks to bring a cricket bat.
I find it interesting how many folks here in the Western World automatically give more credence to a story if it comes from somewhere mystical-sounding. Look at how many "alternative medicine" treatments come from places like Peru, India, or the American Southwest (adding "Hopi" to a product's name is a sure-fire winner, which makes me wonder how the actual Hopi feel about all of this). Of course, being from one of those places is no guarantee of not being a complete raving wackmobile, as was evidenced just yesterday in a pronouncement by Gyandrek, a Tibetan lama, who sent the following highly illuminating message to NASA, which I present here verbatim:
In late December, the Solar system planets line up in a row, which is a unique case.Well, I think we can all agree that this sounds pretty dire, especially the "darkness accompanied by light" part. I'm sure that all of the scientists at NASA were tickled that Gyandrek felt obliged to weigh in on the situation, and are sincerely thankful that he warned them that according to his information, the "Solar system planets" are all going to line up in a row, sending us into the "galactic zero band." Whatever the hell that is.
Fall and winter will be warm, and from 12/21/2012 Earth will begin to pass through the galactic zero band. This is a special state space where the blanked and not be subject to any energy.
Was complete darkness and silence. The electricity and communications. Darkness will be accompanied by flashes of light, as well as the play of light and shadow.
Sometimes it may seem that roam figures – as if the dead rose from their graves. earth will shake slightly – like a small earthquake. Some buildings can be destroyed.
Animals feel the earth before the coming of the cosmic dark and go to ground. People in cities do not feel so are the victims of insanity. Can be lost 10% of the population.
You need to prepare for this change of cycles to complete all the works in 2012, not to tie new, pay off debts.
20.12.2012 to take their children, all documents, cash and get out of town into the countryside. Prepare a supply of food for two months, as supply will be restored for a long time.
It is necessary to have in the house supply of water, firewood and candles for lighting. You need to have the stove in the house, as the electricity stops flowing from 21.12.2012 on the wire.
Communications and TV are turned off. During the "dark days" hang windows dark, not to look at them, do not believe your eyes and ears, not to go out. If you see the need to go, you cannot go far – you can get lost, as you’ll even his own hands.
After the appearance of the world is not in a hurry to return to the city, it is better to live in the nature of spring.
Now, you're probably thinking, "Why are you even bothering to post this? How could anyone whose IQ exceeds his shoe size believe any of this? I mean, really?"
Apparently, tens of thousands of people in China could. According to a story in The Telegraph, there has been a run on candles and non-perishable food in local markets, because of the predictions of "continuous darkness" and fear that the electrical supply will fail. A 54-year-old university professor's wife in Nanjing took out a £100,000 mortgage on her £300,000 home and plans to give all of the money to underprivileged children, so that she can "do something meaningful before the world ends." (Hard to imagine how the underprivileged children are going to spend all of that money in just ten days, but at least the sentiment is nice.) The Chinese government has tried to counteract all of the silliness, putting out messages directing people to ignore any End-of-the-World nonsense, but apparently it's not having much effect.
For me, the effect is to make me weep softly while banging my forehead on my computer keyboard.
Let's just be clear about this, okay? The planets are not going to line up a week from Friday. We are not going to have two months, or even three days, of darkness at the solstice. There is no such thing as a "galactic zero band." And while I'm sure the Mayans and the Tibetans are lovely people, their ability to predict stuff kind of sucks. No one at NASA is taking any of this seriously, although I'm sure that their receptionist is going to be really glad when the 21st has come and gone so that (s)he can stop having to field calls from panicked wingnuts wondering what the scientists recommend doing to maximize your chances of surviving.
Of course, my tendency to scoff doesn't mean I can't have a little fun with the whole idea. As for me, I'm hosting a party on the 21st. We'll have plenty of high-fat food, and sugary desserts, because after all, we won't have to face any repercussions with our doctors if we're all dead (or ascended, or in the dark, depending on which version you go for). There will, of course, be lots of beer and wine. For the Rapture-minded, we'll have a Confess Your Sins booth, although offhand I can't think of any of our friends who is nearly holy enough to hear confession and grant absolution. My wife wanted to dress up as either a Mayan princess or like Tina Turner in Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome, but the costume store was all out of both of those, so she's just going to surprise me. As for me, I'm coming as a zombie, and just hope that no one thinks to bring a cricket bat.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Ketchum study redux, and why peer review isn't a conspiracy
Well, the peer review is complete on Melba Ketchum's paper claiming she had isolated Bigfoot DNA, and the verdict is:
Fail. [Source]
No details were released on why the paper failed to pass peer review, but almost certainly it is for the same reason that all failed papers are rejected; flaws in the methodology, data, or inferences, or all three. The peer review process is there to keep scientists honest; all papers have to be evaluated line-by-line by other scientists in the same field, to make certain that everything is what it seems to be. Now, to be sure there have been times that flawed papers have slipped through. Scientists, after all, are only human, and can miss things, make assumptions, make outright mistakes. But as a process, peer review works pretty damn well at winnowing the grain from the chaff.
Of course, that's not how a lot of Bigfoot enthusiasts see it. The first to respond was Ketchum's ally, Russian cryptozoologist Igor Burtsev (this is long, but worth reading):
Reading all of this, my reaction is: do you people actually know any working scientists? Because it sure as hell sounds like you've never met one.
First of all, the claim that the scientists themselves would squash a legitimate claim solely because it runs counter to the current paradigm is absurd. In fact, the opposite is true -- the scientists I know are actively looking for new, undiscovered features of our universe to explain. That's how careers are made! No working scientist I've ever run into does his/her work with the goal of simply reinforcing the preexisting edifice. As Neil DeGrasse Tyson put it, "If you're not at the drawing board, you're not doing science. You're doing something else." Can you imagine how many papers, grants, and projects would come out of studying a newly-discovered proto-hominid, especially one that in all likelihood would be the nearest living relative of Homo sapiens? Do you seriously think that the world's evolutionary biologists and primatologists would try to suppress such a discovery just because they're so happy with what they're already doing?
Second, remember where the supposed "scientific edifice" came from. Virtually all of the pieces of the main scientific model in any field you choose came from someone overturning the previous model. Consider why names like Darwin, Mendel, Einstein, and Newton are household words. In each case, it's because they did the scientific version of tearing the house down -- and then rebuilding it from the ground up. Significantly, though, none of the giants of scientific discovery did so by playing outside the rules. They used data and the process of scientific induction to show us that the way we were looking at things was wrong (or at least incomplete). Scientists are not ignorant about their own history -- and the vast majority of them would be delighted to be the next Einstein of their field.
Third, and more specific to the case of Bigfoot; even if there was some sort of grand conspiracy amongst scientists to Protect the Dominant Paradigm, why would Bigfoot represent such a threat? As I have said more than once in this blog: new species are discovered daily. There is nothing particularly earthshattering about the idea that one of those as-yet undiscovered species is a near relative of ours. If such a creature were proven to exist, it would be cool; as I mentioned earlier, my guess is that the zoologists would be elbowing each other out of the way to get dibs on studying it first, not running the other way shouting "la-la-la-la-la, not listening." But as woo-woo claims go, Bigfoot is the one that would cause the least revision to our current scientific view of the world. It would add a new branch to the primate tree; it would require some revisiting of humanity's evolutionary descent. And that's all. Proof of just about any other claim of this sort -- UFOs, ghosts, telepathy, even the Loch Ness Monster -- would force a far greater revision of our current understanding of natural processes.
Anyhow, I'd like to think that this is the last we'll hear from Ketchum et al. Whether Bigfoot is out there remains to be seen, but apparently the Ketchum study isn't going to be the one to prove it, so it's to be hoped that they'll just bow out gracefully. I know, unfortunately, that the conspiracy theorists won't do likewise. They never run out of energy, more's the pity.
Fail. [Source]
No details were released on why the paper failed to pass peer review, but almost certainly it is for the same reason that all failed papers are rejected; flaws in the methodology, data, or inferences, or all three. The peer review process is there to keep scientists honest; all papers have to be evaluated line-by-line by other scientists in the same field, to make certain that everything is what it seems to be. Now, to be sure there have been times that flawed papers have slipped through. Scientists, after all, are only human, and can miss things, make assumptions, make outright mistakes. But as a process, peer review works pretty damn well at winnowing the grain from the chaff.
Of course, that's not how a lot of Bigfoot enthusiasts see it. The first to respond was Ketchum's ally, Russian cryptozoologist Igor Burtsev (this is long, but worth reading):
We waited a couple of years the scientific publication by Dr. Melba Ketchum. But scientific magazines refuse to publish her manuscript which deserves to be published. And I want to remind some facts of the destiny of scholars in our field.
Before the First World War our zoologist Vitaly Khahlov described the creature, named it Primihomo asiaticus. He send his scientific report very circumstantial, thorough to the Russian Academy of Sciences. And what? The report was put into the box, and had stayed there till 1959, about half of century. Until Dr. Porshnev found it and published…And this was mild when compared with the reaction from the cryptozoological wing of the blogosphere. Science, it's claimed, is one vast conspiracy, where the scientists who are in the Inner Circles suppress good science that is outside of the current paradigm. "Smash the heretics!" is, apparently, the battle cry of scientists in general, and peer review boards in particular. Nothing must be allowed to run against the current model -- and the existence of Sasquatch would overturn everything. So, at all costs, scientists must squelch any paper that tries to claim that Bigfoot exists.
I don’t want the new discovery (not the first one, but the next one) to wait for another half a century to be recognised by haughty official scientific establishment!
That is why I broke the tradition, did not let this achievement to wait for near half a century to be recognised. No matter of the publication in the scientific magazine, people should know NOW, what bigfoot/sasquatch is...
Yes, the paper of Dr Ketchum is under reviewing. And it is worth to be published. Just the situation now remindes [sic] me the war between North and South in the beginning of USA history… There are a lot of her supporters as well as a lot of her opponents and even some enemies…
The problem is that some people absolutize the science. Unfortunately science now is too conservative. One third of the population of the USA believes in BFs existing, but academic science even does not want to recognize the problem of their existing or not, just rejecting to discuss this question. In such a condition this subject is under discussion of the broad public. We can’t wait decades when scientists start to study this problem, forest people need to be protect now, not after half a century, when science wakes up.
Re the paper: the reviewed journals in the US refused to publish the paper. That is why Dr Ketchum has sent it to me to arrange publishing in any Russian reviewed journal. And I showed to our geneticists and understood that it was a serious work. I gave it up to the journal, now it’s under reviewing.
Anyway, I informed public about the results of the study. The public waited for this info for more than a year, a lot of rumors were spreading around. And the public has the right to know it nevertheless “science” says about it.
Reading all of this, my reaction is: do you people actually know any working scientists? Because it sure as hell sounds like you've never met one.
First of all, the claim that the scientists themselves would squash a legitimate claim solely because it runs counter to the current paradigm is absurd. In fact, the opposite is true -- the scientists I know are actively looking for new, undiscovered features of our universe to explain. That's how careers are made! No working scientist I've ever run into does his/her work with the goal of simply reinforcing the preexisting edifice. As Neil DeGrasse Tyson put it, "If you're not at the drawing board, you're not doing science. You're doing something else." Can you imagine how many papers, grants, and projects would come out of studying a newly-discovered proto-hominid, especially one that in all likelihood would be the nearest living relative of Homo sapiens? Do you seriously think that the world's evolutionary biologists and primatologists would try to suppress such a discovery just because they're so happy with what they're already doing?
Second, remember where the supposed "scientific edifice" came from. Virtually all of the pieces of the main scientific model in any field you choose came from someone overturning the previous model. Consider why names like Darwin, Mendel, Einstein, and Newton are household words. In each case, it's because they did the scientific version of tearing the house down -- and then rebuilding it from the ground up. Significantly, though, none of the giants of scientific discovery did so by playing outside the rules. They used data and the process of scientific induction to show us that the way we were looking at things was wrong (or at least incomplete). Scientists are not ignorant about their own history -- and the vast majority of them would be delighted to be the next Einstein of their field.
Third, and more specific to the case of Bigfoot; even if there was some sort of grand conspiracy amongst scientists to Protect the Dominant Paradigm, why would Bigfoot represent such a threat? As I have said more than once in this blog: new species are discovered daily. There is nothing particularly earthshattering about the idea that one of those as-yet undiscovered species is a near relative of ours. If such a creature were proven to exist, it would be cool; as I mentioned earlier, my guess is that the zoologists would be elbowing each other out of the way to get dibs on studying it first, not running the other way shouting "la-la-la-la-la, not listening." But as woo-woo claims go, Bigfoot is the one that would cause the least revision to our current scientific view of the world. It would add a new branch to the primate tree; it would require some revisiting of humanity's evolutionary descent. And that's all. Proof of just about any other claim of this sort -- UFOs, ghosts, telepathy, even the Loch Ness Monster -- would force a far greater revision of our current understanding of natural processes.
Anyhow, I'd like to think that this is the last we'll hear from Ketchum et al. Whether Bigfoot is out there remains to be seen, but apparently the Ketchum study isn't going to be the one to prove it, so it's to be hoped that they'll just bow out gracefully. I know, unfortunately, that the conspiracy theorists won't do likewise. They never run out of energy, more's the pity.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Acupuncture + biophotons = "colorpuncture"
Acupuncture is one of those "alternative medicine" treatments that has long seemed to me to live in that gray area between scientific soundness and woo-woo quackery. It has a lot of woo-woo characteristics; all manner of goofy explanations about why it works (qi and chakras and energy meridians), and that mystical haze that always seems to surround something that comes from China. However, enough friends of mine (of the non-woo-woo variety) have tried it, with positive results, that it's always made me wonder if the treatment itself might be beneficial, even though the explanations were incorrect -- in much the same way that medicinal plants were used to treat disease, and were thought to be inhabited by the spirit of healing magic, long before pharmacological chemistry was a science.
Just yesterday, however, I came across an excellent, and well-researched (and multiply-sourced) medical science blog, Respectful Insolence, that did a piece four years ago (here), that takes acupuncture's claims and evidence apart at the seams. It particularly attacks the so-called scientific studies of acupuncture, citing major methodological flaws that render the studies that found positive results invalid. Whether or not you are a believer in acupuncture, it's an interesting read (and I'm definitely going to put Respectful Insolence in my blog feed).
In any case, all of that is just a lead-in to what I wanted to write about today. Today's topic is about a new therapy that grew out of acupuncture, one that was developed because you can't undergo acupuncture without letting yourself get stuck by needles. And a lot of people are afraid of needles. So practitioners gave a lot of thought to how you could somehow achieve the same thing -- stimulating the qi and jump-starting your energy meridians, or whatever the hell it's supposed to accomplish -- without punching the patient full of tiny holes.
Enter "colorpuncture."
Interestingly, from what I've read about it, "colorpuncture" has been around for a while. First proposed in 1988 by a German woo-woo named Peter Mandel, it combined the ideas of acupuncture with the ideas of Fritz-Albert Popp. Popp is a German biophysicist who believes, despite a rather unfortunate lack of evidence, that cells in living organisms communicate via "biophotons." So, Mandel's plan: combine an alternative medical technique that is questionable at best (acupuncture) with a hypothesis that seems to be complete nonsense (biophotons), and use that as the basis of a new treatment modality.
You'd think that Mandel would be aware that the more ridiculous ideas you incorporate into your theory, the more ridiculous it becomes, but evidently that line of reasoning escaped him somehow.
So, in "colorpuncture," rather than having the practitioner stick you with a lot of nasty needles, all (s)he does is point a little beam of colored light at the correct spot on your skin, and that stimulates the qi (or whatever). Or maybe your "biophotons" get all excited and happy. Who the hell knows? All of the sites I looked at spent so much time blathering on about energy meridians and vibrational frequencies that it was impossible to determine what they actually are claiming is happening in your body. One of the funny things I read about "colorpuncture" is that "warm" colors such as red, orange, and yellow are supposed to increase your "energy flow," whereas "cool" colors such as green, blue, and violet are supposed to decrease it. Why is this funny? Because as you go up the spectrum from red to violet, the frequency of the light, and thus its energy, actually increases -- violet light is considerably more energetic than red light is. But there never was any real science behind this, so why start now?
In any case, it took a while for "colorpuncture" to catch on after Mandel had his big idea back in 1988. But apparently it's really made a jump into the woo-woo scene recently -- and given the hunger people have for "alternative treatments" that don't require a visit to an actual, trained doctor, I suspect this one is going to be big.
Interestingly, there are plenty of reputable studies that have looked into the effects of light on human physiology -- take a look at this one, done at MIT (here) and this one, from Harvard School of Medicine (here), for example. Most of them have looked into the effects of light on human circadian rhythms -- the sleep cycle, for example. (Reading these papers made me wonder how all of our artificial lighting is affecting our physiology, especially apropos of the entrainment of our biological cycles.)
But "colorpuncture?" Not a single peer-reviewed study that I could find. I suspect that the practitioners of this dubious art would claim that this is due to the closed-mindedness of scientific researchers and peer review boards, but come on -- if acupuncture, which at least involves something entering the body, can't prove any therapeutic results beyond the placebo effect, "colorpuncture" doesn't have a prayer.
At least one thing, however, is in its favor; no one ever got a blood-borne disease from a little colored flashlight. So I suppose that medical science's first rule -- "do no harm" -- is being followed, at least as long as you're not counting your pocketbook.
Just yesterday, however, I came across an excellent, and well-researched (and multiply-sourced) medical science blog, Respectful Insolence, that did a piece four years ago (here), that takes acupuncture's claims and evidence apart at the seams. It particularly attacks the so-called scientific studies of acupuncture, citing major methodological flaws that render the studies that found positive results invalid. Whether or not you are a believer in acupuncture, it's an interesting read (and I'm definitely going to put Respectful Insolence in my blog feed).
In any case, all of that is just a lead-in to what I wanted to write about today. Today's topic is about a new therapy that grew out of acupuncture, one that was developed because you can't undergo acupuncture without letting yourself get stuck by needles. And a lot of people are afraid of needles. So practitioners gave a lot of thought to how you could somehow achieve the same thing -- stimulating the qi and jump-starting your energy meridians, or whatever the hell it's supposed to accomplish -- without punching the patient full of tiny holes.
Enter "colorpuncture."
Interestingly, from what I've read about it, "colorpuncture" has been around for a while. First proposed in 1988 by a German woo-woo named Peter Mandel, it combined the ideas of acupuncture with the ideas of Fritz-Albert Popp. Popp is a German biophysicist who believes, despite a rather unfortunate lack of evidence, that cells in living organisms communicate via "biophotons." So, Mandel's plan: combine an alternative medical technique that is questionable at best (acupuncture) with a hypothesis that seems to be complete nonsense (biophotons), and use that as the basis of a new treatment modality.
You'd think that Mandel would be aware that the more ridiculous ideas you incorporate into your theory, the more ridiculous it becomes, but evidently that line of reasoning escaped him somehow.
So, in "colorpuncture," rather than having the practitioner stick you with a lot of nasty needles, all (s)he does is point a little beam of colored light at the correct spot on your skin, and that stimulates the qi (or whatever). Or maybe your "biophotons" get all excited and happy. Who the hell knows? All of the sites I looked at spent so much time blathering on about energy meridians and vibrational frequencies that it was impossible to determine what they actually are claiming is happening in your body. One of the funny things I read about "colorpuncture" is that "warm" colors such as red, orange, and yellow are supposed to increase your "energy flow," whereas "cool" colors such as green, blue, and violet are supposed to decrease it. Why is this funny? Because as you go up the spectrum from red to violet, the frequency of the light, and thus its energy, actually increases -- violet light is considerably more energetic than red light is. But there never was any real science behind this, so why start now?
In any case, it took a while for "colorpuncture" to catch on after Mandel had his big idea back in 1988. But apparently it's really made a jump into the woo-woo scene recently -- and given the hunger people have for "alternative treatments" that don't require a visit to an actual, trained doctor, I suspect this one is going to be big.
Interestingly, there are plenty of reputable studies that have looked into the effects of light on human physiology -- take a look at this one, done at MIT (here) and this one, from Harvard School of Medicine (here), for example. Most of them have looked into the effects of light on human circadian rhythms -- the sleep cycle, for example. (Reading these papers made me wonder how all of our artificial lighting is affecting our physiology, especially apropos of the entrainment of our biological cycles.)
But "colorpuncture?" Not a single peer-reviewed study that I could find. I suspect that the practitioners of this dubious art would claim that this is due to the closed-mindedness of scientific researchers and peer review boards, but come on -- if acupuncture, which at least involves something entering the body, can't prove any therapeutic results beyond the placebo effect, "colorpuncture" doesn't have a prayer.
At least one thing, however, is in its favor; no one ever got a blood-borne disease from a little colored flashlight. So I suppose that medical science's first rule -- "do no harm" -- is being followed, at least as long as you're not counting your pocketbook.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Alien abduction insurance policies
Looking a holiday gift for the woo-woo in your life that has everything?
Considering purchasing something truly useful for your friend: Alien Abduction Insurance.
I'm not making this up. British Insurance of Colchester, Essex, England has policies available for £100 per year for £1,000,000 of coverage. (This is the same company that insured three sisters in Inverness, Scotland in 2006 against a virgin birth; evidently the three were afraid that one of them might be responsible for the Second Coming of Christ.) Several American companies offer policies for similar rate/payout ratios. It's reputed that noted wingnut Shirley MacLaine has purchased such a policy, although if she did get abducted a lot of the skeptics I know would be willing to pay the aliens to keep her.
If that's a little expensive for your tastes, a Florida insurance company, the St. Lawrence Agency, will send you a handsome certificate certifying your coverage of $10 million for a one-time payment of only $7.95. Not only are you insured against alien abduction by this policy, your outpatient medical expenses (for recovering from the effects of the abduction) are covered, and you are guaranteed double indemnity if your visit to the spacecraft resulted in any half-human, half-alien children, or if (heaven forbid) the aliens come back insisting on conjugal visits.
While the St. Lawrence Agency's offer is clearly meant as a joke, the rest of these guys are apparently serious. In fact, the London brokerage Goodfellow Rebecca Ingrams Pearson once offered a policy (now discontinued) that was remarkably like the St. Lawrence Agency one, with the addition that men could also insure themselves against impregnation -- because, after all, you never know what those crafty aliens might be capable of. And the GRIP policy was entirely legally binding and authentic. Which brings up a few questions:
First: Are the people who purchase these policies insane? Or what?
Second, this seems like an awfully good deal for the insurance company, doesn't it? You pay them $100/year for your million-dollar coverage, and in return, they do... nothing. If you get abducted by aliens, you would have to prove to the insurance company that it had happened in order to get a payout -- and consider the number of people who have successfully proved alien abductions thus far in the history of humanity (and that was when a million bucks wasn't on the line).
Third, I wonder how they calculated the premium? Insurance companies hire people called actuaries, whose job it is to assess the overall risk of the company having to pay out, and then fix the premiums at a level that would allow the company to cover their expenses (including payouts) and still turn a profit. So: the higher the risk of payout, the higher the premium. That's why smokers pay more for life insurance, for example. But how do you assess the risk for something that has never happened, and which (to all appearances) won't ever happen? My guess is the actuaries just stayed up late one night discussing it, and after a few martinis they said, "Screw it, let's just charge 'em a hundred dollars yearly per million and call it good."
And last: what happens if the aliens decide not to return you to Earth? Clearly you would be owed the payout, but you wouldn't be around to collect it. This seems like an unfortunate loophole in the policy. However, since it's unlikely that the aliens would honor Earthling currency, I don't suppose that having large quantities of dollars (or pounds, or euros, or whatever) would do you much good in any case, up there on the spacecraft.
So, there you are. I'd go with the St. Lawrence Agency, myself. It's cheaper, comes with a lovely certificate (suitable for framing), and seems to look at the whole thing in the proper light. If anyone is looking for a gift for me for the holidays, let me just specify that I'd like my beneficiary to be my dog, Doolin. It may seem harsh of me to bypass my wife, but I've long suspected that Doolin is an alien herself. She is hands-down the weirdest dog I've ever known, and gives every evidence of being an extraterrestrial life form who is attempting to impersonate a dog and still can't quite manage to make it look authentic. So it's only fitting that she should get the money. I'm sure she'll share with Carol and our other dog, Grendel, although I suspect the cats will have to fend for themselves.
Considering purchasing something truly useful for your friend: Alien Abduction Insurance.
I'm not making this up. British Insurance of Colchester, Essex, England has policies available for £100 per year for £1,000,000 of coverage. (This is the same company that insured three sisters in Inverness, Scotland in 2006 against a virgin birth; evidently the three were afraid that one of them might be responsible for the Second Coming of Christ.) Several American companies offer policies for similar rate/payout ratios. It's reputed that noted wingnut Shirley MacLaine has purchased such a policy, although if she did get abducted a lot of the skeptics I know would be willing to pay the aliens to keep her.
If that's a little expensive for your tastes, a Florida insurance company, the St. Lawrence Agency, will send you a handsome certificate certifying your coverage of $10 million for a one-time payment of only $7.95. Not only are you insured against alien abduction by this policy, your outpatient medical expenses (for recovering from the effects of the abduction) are covered, and you are guaranteed double indemnity if your visit to the spacecraft resulted in any half-human, half-alien children, or if (heaven forbid) the aliens come back insisting on conjugal visits.
While the St. Lawrence Agency's offer is clearly meant as a joke, the rest of these guys are apparently serious. In fact, the London brokerage Goodfellow Rebecca Ingrams Pearson once offered a policy (now discontinued) that was remarkably like the St. Lawrence Agency one, with the addition that men could also insure themselves against impregnation -- because, after all, you never know what those crafty aliens might be capable of. And the GRIP policy was entirely legally binding and authentic. Which brings up a few questions:
First: Are the people who purchase these policies insane? Or what?
Second, this seems like an awfully good deal for the insurance company, doesn't it? You pay them $100/year for your million-dollar coverage, and in return, they do... nothing. If you get abducted by aliens, you would have to prove to the insurance company that it had happened in order to get a payout -- and consider the number of people who have successfully proved alien abductions thus far in the history of humanity (and that was when a million bucks wasn't on the line).
Third, I wonder how they calculated the premium? Insurance companies hire people called actuaries, whose job it is to assess the overall risk of the company having to pay out, and then fix the premiums at a level that would allow the company to cover their expenses (including payouts) and still turn a profit. So: the higher the risk of payout, the higher the premium. That's why smokers pay more for life insurance, for example. But how do you assess the risk for something that has never happened, and which (to all appearances) won't ever happen? My guess is the actuaries just stayed up late one night discussing it, and after a few martinis they said, "Screw it, let's just charge 'em a hundred dollars yearly per million and call it good."
And last: what happens if the aliens decide not to return you to Earth? Clearly you would be owed the payout, but you wouldn't be around to collect it. This seems like an unfortunate loophole in the policy. However, since it's unlikely that the aliens would honor Earthling currency, I don't suppose that having large quantities of dollars (or pounds, or euros, or whatever) would do you much good in any case, up there on the spacecraft.
So, there you are. I'd go with the St. Lawrence Agency, myself. It's cheaper, comes with a lovely certificate (suitable for framing), and seems to look at the whole thing in the proper light. If anyone is looking for a gift for me for the holidays, let me just specify that I'd like my beneficiary to be my dog, Doolin. It may seem harsh of me to bypass my wife, but I've long suspected that Doolin is an alien herself. She is hands-down the weirdest dog I've ever known, and gives every evidence of being an extraterrestrial life form who is attempting to impersonate a dog and still can't quite manage to make it look authentic. So it's only fitting that she should get the money. I'm sure she'll share with Carol and our other dog, Grendel, although I suspect the cats will have to fend for themselves.
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