I think one of the hardest things for me to understand about the woo-woo mindset is how quickly they're willing to jump to a supernatural explanation.
It's not that I don't have the impulse myself sometimes, mind you. When I hear a bump in my attic, when I see something out of the corner of my eye, I (like most people) get a shiver up my spine. But I don't follow that up by saying "Oh, it must be that pesky ghost again." The first thing I look for is a natural explanation. And you know what? When I look for a natural explanation, I generally find it. The bump in the attic was my cat knocking something off a bookshelf; the motion I saw was leaves being blown past the window. In my 52 years, the number of things I've been left with that I haven't been able to satisfactorily explain from a completely ordinary perspective is exactly zero.
Apparently, though, I'm in the minority. Consider the case of the University of Iowa baseball team, who have made some strange enough claims that their story was written up on the New England Sports Network. (Read the story here.) Members of the team have contacted ghost hunters after several of their number reported seeing apparitions, and having a variety of other strange experiences in their living quarters.
"We've lived here over the past two years," pitcher Aaron Smit told reporters. "But over the past few months, we've noticed things getting a little bit weird. We had a kid in here who thought he saw a ghost -- a shadow in the form of a human."
Others have reported "poltergeist-like" phenomena, with objects moving around, doors being slammed, and television channels spontaneously changing. One player said he saw a "little girl in his bedroom." Another, first baseman Brian Niedbalski, says there's an old man ghost living in the house as well, and the team has nicknamed him "Tim." (The ghost, not the first baseman.) "I'm on Tim's good side," Niedbalski said. "I want to leave it that way."
Then, there's the incident in which two of the players' girlfriends, who were spending the night, woke up to find their underwear had been removed, and was elsewhere in the room -- although they were still wearing pants at the time.
Oooookay. So, what do we have here?
First, of course, we have the complete lack of actual hard evidence. Doors can slam because of drafts -- I lived in a house in Seattle where that used to happen regularly -- and the "corner of the eye" phenomenon is something that happens to everyone, whether there's a ghost there or not. I see nothing here that can't be explained through a combination of suggestibility, natural phenomena, and ordinary human perceptual errors, with possibly the contribution of alcohol in the case of the teleporting panties. None of this seems to me to be especially convincing, and you have to wonder if this may not be a few superstitious guys who convinced the whole team that something ghostly was going on, following which every additional stray noise just added to the team's conviction that they were living in a haunted house.
Of course, I have to admit that I'm drawing all of these conclusions long-distance. I've never been to the team's living quarters to check out the claims for myself. Spending a night in a haunted house is one of my bucket-list items -- and who knows, maybe if I get my wish I'll be convinced. But at the moment, all of the natural explanations for the University of Iowa underwear-stealing ghost just seem to me to be much more plausible.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
"Big Pharma" and the package-deal fallacy
My post from a couple of days ago about the fraudulent psychic who convinced Latina singer Jenni Rivera's family that she had survived a plane crash (she didn't) elicited a curious comment from a reader.
I had prefaced my comments about Rivera and the psychic with a statement that woo-woo beliefs cause a lot of harm -- and I cited homeopathy as one example. The commenter ignored the main gist of my post, and leaped upon the homeopathy comment, responding, "Does this (harm) include fraudulent behaviour by clinical scientists who are paid by the big pharmaceutical companies to fudge their data? Typical double standards by pseudosceptics!"
Well. I could call "red herring" on this and be done with it, but I thought it might be more interesting to look at the question a little more closely.
First, let me say at the outset that I am neither a medical professional nor a specialist in corporate law. I am, however, trained to do biology, and I understand anatomy and physiology pretty well. And whatever else you might say about most medications, they do, for the most part, what they're intended to do, and we understand how they do it. To take two examples from my own health: (1) I am currently recovering from a sinus infection, and have been taking amoxicillin; and (2) I have moderate chronic high blood pressure, and am on two medications (nifedipine and hydrochlorothiazide), and I am pleased to report that at my last checkup my blood pressure was a healthy 118/80. And all three of those drugs have mechanisms of action that are thoroughly researched and well understood.
So, here's the deal. While "Big Pharma" is composed of a group of huge corporations, which (like all corporations) exist to make money for stockholders, they do have one thing going for them; the drugs they make seem to work pretty well. It's kind of funny, don't you think? All the fraudulent, on-the-take clinical scientists fudge their data, and evil old "Big Pharma" continues to churn out medications that have made us one of the overall healthiest societies ever. We have virtually eradicated childhood infectious diseases because of vaccination; we have nearly eliminated deaths from bacterial infections because of antibiotics; cancer survival rates have improved significantly because of chemotherapy. I know personally at least a dozen people who owe their lives to "Big Pharma."
Now, of course, the commenter was right in one sense; when corporate interests and the profit motive get mixed up in anything, there is always going to be some degree of corruption. Human greed is as insidious, and harder to cure, than human disease. And while the survival rate from most of the ills that have plagued humanity from the get-go has increased, there are a few conditions that have become more common since the advent of modern medicine, for reasons unknown (allergies, asthma, and autism come to mind). But the idea that because we haven't cured everything, and because there have been some examples of bad science, fudged data, and coverups, all pharmaceuticals should be avoided, is blatant foolishness. This is the "package-deal fallacy" in a particularly dangerous guise.
Because, after all, what does the alternative medicine crowd propose as a replacement? Homeopathy (which I beat on frequently enough that the phrase "'nuff said" comes to mind). "Colorpuncture," about which I wrote last week. Crystals, smudging, aromatherapy, flower essences, chakra manipulation. Oh, yeah, and one other one, that I just found out about last week because of a student in my Critical Thinking class: "Auto-Urine Therapy." Yes, folks, this is exactly what it sounds like; improve your health and cure disease by drinking your own urine. What's it supposed to do, you might ask? I know that's what I asked, after I finished gagging. "This diet minimises toxins and further enhances the power of the immune system. Ojas [the essential energy of the body] is increased and thus the urine contains more valuable biochemicals," the website says. "Urine can also be used to cleanse the stomach, lungs, sinuses and nasal passages in the Yoga practices of Neti and Kunjal Kriyas."
Apparently it can also be used as a "skin tonic." Um, yeah. I'll just stick with lotion, okay?
Now, don't get me wrong; there are some "natural medicines" that have shown efficacy in treating human diseases. Digitalis, aspirin, atropine, vincristine, the opiates, and a variety of other medically-useful compounds, now found routinely in standard medicine, are plant compounds. Others are still being investigated -- the jury is still out on echinacea and turmeric, for example. Others still (such as ginkgo biloba, supposed to be useful to improve memory) have been shown in controlled studies to be useless.
The point is, doctors and medical researchers are constantly looking for new ways to approach treatment, and they have nothing against herbals as a source of new, more effective drugs. But, as Tim Minchin said, in his wonderful piece "Storm" (you should all watch it, but be forewarned -- there's some inappropriate language, should you be sensitive to such things), "There's a name for alternative medicine that's been proved to work. It's called... medicine."
I had prefaced my comments about Rivera and the psychic with a statement that woo-woo beliefs cause a lot of harm -- and I cited homeopathy as one example. The commenter ignored the main gist of my post, and leaped upon the homeopathy comment, responding, "Does this (harm) include fraudulent behaviour by clinical scientists who are paid by the big pharmaceutical companies to fudge their data? Typical double standards by pseudosceptics!"
Well. I could call "red herring" on this and be done with it, but I thought it might be more interesting to look at the question a little more closely.
First, let me say at the outset that I am neither a medical professional nor a specialist in corporate law. I am, however, trained to do biology, and I understand anatomy and physiology pretty well. And whatever else you might say about most medications, they do, for the most part, what they're intended to do, and we understand how they do it. To take two examples from my own health: (1) I am currently recovering from a sinus infection, and have been taking amoxicillin; and (2) I have moderate chronic high blood pressure, and am on two medications (nifedipine and hydrochlorothiazide), and I am pleased to report that at my last checkup my blood pressure was a healthy 118/80. And all three of those drugs have mechanisms of action that are thoroughly researched and well understood.
So, here's the deal. While "Big Pharma" is composed of a group of huge corporations, which (like all corporations) exist to make money for stockholders, they do have one thing going for them; the drugs they make seem to work pretty well. It's kind of funny, don't you think? All the fraudulent, on-the-take clinical scientists fudge their data, and evil old "Big Pharma" continues to churn out medications that have made us one of the overall healthiest societies ever. We have virtually eradicated childhood infectious diseases because of vaccination; we have nearly eliminated deaths from bacterial infections because of antibiotics; cancer survival rates have improved significantly because of chemotherapy. I know personally at least a dozen people who owe their lives to "Big Pharma."
Now, of course, the commenter was right in one sense; when corporate interests and the profit motive get mixed up in anything, there is always going to be some degree of corruption. Human greed is as insidious, and harder to cure, than human disease. And while the survival rate from most of the ills that have plagued humanity from the get-go has increased, there are a few conditions that have become more common since the advent of modern medicine, for reasons unknown (allergies, asthma, and autism come to mind). But the idea that because we haven't cured everything, and because there have been some examples of bad science, fudged data, and coverups, all pharmaceuticals should be avoided, is blatant foolishness. This is the "package-deal fallacy" in a particularly dangerous guise.
Because, after all, what does the alternative medicine crowd propose as a replacement? Homeopathy (which I beat on frequently enough that the phrase "'nuff said" comes to mind). "Colorpuncture," about which I wrote last week. Crystals, smudging, aromatherapy, flower essences, chakra manipulation. Oh, yeah, and one other one, that I just found out about last week because of a student in my Critical Thinking class: "Auto-Urine Therapy." Yes, folks, this is exactly what it sounds like; improve your health and cure disease by drinking your own urine. What's it supposed to do, you might ask? I know that's what I asked, after I finished gagging. "This diet minimises toxins and further enhances the power of the immune system. Ojas [the essential energy of the body] is increased and thus the urine contains more valuable biochemicals," the website says. "Urine can also be used to cleanse the stomach, lungs, sinuses and nasal passages in the Yoga practices of Neti and Kunjal Kriyas."
Apparently it can also be used as a "skin tonic." Um, yeah. I'll just stick with lotion, okay?
Now, don't get me wrong; there are some "natural medicines" that have shown efficacy in treating human diseases. Digitalis, aspirin, atropine, vincristine, the opiates, and a variety of other medically-useful compounds, now found routinely in standard medicine, are plant compounds. Others are still being investigated -- the jury is still out on echinacea and turmeric, for example. Others still (such as ginkgo biloba, supposed to be useful to improve memory) have been shown in controlled studies to be useless.
The point is, doctors and medical researchers are constantly looking for new ways to approach treatment, and they have nothing against herbals as a source of new, more effective drugs. But, as Tim Minchin said, in his wonderful piece "Storm" (you should all watch it, but be forewarned -- there's some inappropriate language, should you be sensitive to such things), "There's a name for alternative medicine that's been proved to work. It's called... medicine."
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Huckabee, Fischer, and the politicization of tragedy
I, like many others, have spent the last twelve hours trying to figure out how to wrap my mind around what happened yesterday at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. A 20 year old man, almost certainly mentally ill, took the lives of 26 people, including his mother (one of the teachers at the school), the principal, the school psychologist, and twenty children between the ages of 5 and 10. A tragedy of this magnitude is hard to comprehend; when I watched some of the video clips coming in from Newtown, when I listened to an emotional President Obama's voice cracking as he delivered his response to the nation, I could do nothing but sit there and cry helplessly myself.
Each of us deals with tragedy in our own way. My (many) Christian friends on Facebook have posted comments that they are comforted by the thought that Jesus has gathered these children in. My (also many) secular/non-religious friends have offered their thoughts and condolences to the bereaved family members of those innocent victims. Members of both groups have voiced their renewed commitment to creating a loving, compassionate world, a world in which things like this don't happen ever again. And at times like this, we are forced to revisit and question our laws regarding access to mental health care and gun control, which is right and proper. We respond by comforting the grieving, giving solace to our own shock, and considering how to prevent such horrors in the future.
Well, at least most of us do. Some of us respond by using the deaths of 26 innocent people to score political points. Consider former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's response: "We ask why there is violence in our schools, but we have systematically removed God from our schools," Huckabee said in an interview on Fox News yesterday. "Should we be so surprised that schools would become a place of carnage?"
I watched the clip of Huckabee's interview with my mouth hanging open a little. And at first, I thought, "Why bother writing about this? Huckabee is a sanctimonious twit. You already knew that." But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I couldn't just keep silent.
Do you really believe that, Mr. Huckabee? Your god is that petty, that heartless, that bloodthirsty? Your concept of the Lord of Lords is that he is sitting there on his throne in heaven, and he's thinking, "I'm just fed up with America's commitment to the separation of church and state. Ever since they eliminated prayer in schools, I've been getting more and more pissed off. Hey, I know! I'll send a crazed gunman to shoot a bunch of kids! Yeah, that's the ticket!"?
And I realized: no, of course he doesn't think that. He's a shill. He is shamelessly using the grief and outrage of others to gain political capital. He's not alone; every time something like this happens, you hear others of his cloth -- people like Ann Coulter, Glenn Beck, and Rush Limbaugh -- do precisely the same thing. They don't even stop for a second to say, "Let's take a break from the politically-motivated finger-pointing. Let's use this horror to incite us to do good. Hug your kids, help the people around you, do what you can to make your own community a safe place. There will be other times to push politics; now is a time to come together, put aside our differences, and remember our common commitment to a better world." No. Before the gunshots have even stopped, they've already started manipulating the situation to further their own ends.
If you think this sort of thing is unique to Huckabee, who had already established his reputation as a heartless asshole by responding the same way to the theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado earlier this year, think again. Take a look at this video if you can stand to, in which American Family Association spokesperson Bryan Fischer states that god could have stopped the shooter, but didn't because "god is not going to go where he's not wanted." If kids were allowed to pray every day in schools, Fischer claims, the whole thing never would have happened. I'm sickened by someone who would stoop this low, who would callously think, "Wow, now people will really see that I was right about religion in public schools!" and give a speech like this on the same damned day that the murders occurred.
The word "reprehensible" doesn't even begin to cover this sort of behavior. I can only hope that the people who hear these men talking, religious and non-religious alike, will be repulsed by the cold, calculated politicization of what should be a cause for national mourning. And I hope that enough of them -- and especially of the Christians to whom Huckabee and Fischer are attempting to pander -- will tell them to sit down and shut the hell up, and that they will get the message that anyone with an ounce of compassion would react to their shilling with nausea.
Each of us deals with tragedy in our own way. My (many) Christian friends on Facebook have posted comments that they are comforted by the thought that Jesus has gathered these children in. My (also many) secular/non-religious friends have offered their thoughts and condolences to the bereaved family members of those innocent victims. Members of both groups have voiced their renewed commitment to creating a loving, compassionate world, a world in which things like this don't happen ever again. And at times like this, we are forced to revisit and question our laws regarding access to mental health care and gun control, which is right and proper. We respond by comforting the grieving, giving solace to our own shock, and considering how to prevent such horrors in the future.
Well, at least most of us do. Some of us respond by using the deaths of 26 innocent people to score political points. Consider former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's response: "We ask why there is violence in our schools, but we have systematically removed God from our schools," Huckabee said in an interview on Fox News yesterday. "Should we be so surprised that schools would become a place of carnage?"
I watched the clip of Huckabee's interview with my mouth hanging open a little. And at first, I thought, "Why bother writing about this? Huckabee is a sanctimonious twit. You already knew that." But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I couldn't just keep silent.
Do you really believe that, Mr. Huckabee? Your god is that petty, that heartless, that bloodthirsty? Your concept of the Lord of Lords is that he is sitting there on his throne in heaven, and he's thinking, "I'm just fed up with America's commitment to the separation of church and state. Ever since they eliminated prayer in schools, I've been getting more and more pissed off. Hey, I know! I'll send a crazed gunman to shoot a bunch of kids! Yeah, that's the ticket!"?
And I realized: no, of course he doesn't think that. He's a shill. He is shamelessly using the grief and outrage of others to gain political capital. He's not alone; every time something like this happens, you hear others of his cloth -- people like Ann Coulter, Glenn Beck, and Rush Limbaugh -- do precisely the same thing. They don't even stop for a second to say, "Let's take a break from the politically-motivated finger-pointing. Let's use this horror to incite us to do good. Hug your kids, help the people around you, do what you can to make your own community a safe place. There will be other times to push politics; now is a time to come together, put aside our differences, and remember our common commitment to a better world." No. Before the gunshots have even stopped, they've already started manipulating the situation to further their own ends.
If you think this sort of thing is unique to Huckabee, who had already established his reputation as a heartless asshole by responding the same way to the theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado earlier this year, think again. Take a look at this video if you can stand to, in which American Family Association spokesperson Bryan Fischer states that god could have stopped the shooter, but didn't because "god is not going to go where he's not wanted." If kids were allowed to pray every day in schools, Fischer claims, the whole thing never would have happened. I'm sickened by someone who would stoop this low, who would callously think, "Wow, now people will really see that I was right about religion in public schools!" and give a speech like this on the same damned day that the murders occurred.
The word "reprehensible" doesn't even begin to cover this sort of behavior. I can only hope that the people who hear these men talking, religious and non-religious alike, will be repulsed by the cold, calculated politicization of what should be a cause for national mourning. And I hope that enough of them -- and especially of the Christians to whom Huckabee and Fischer are attempting to pander -- will tell them to sit down and shut the hell up, and that they will get the message that anyone with an ounce of compassion would react to their shilling with nausea.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Jenni Rivera and false hope from psychics
A question I'm frequently asked is why I'm so vehemently against woo-woo beliefs. What harm does it do if someone believes in astrology or the Psychic Hot Line? And even if it's a belief that impels someone to spend their hard-earned cash -- like the millions of dollars wasted annually on homeopathic "remedies" -- well, it's their choice, right? Really, how much harm does it do?
The answer is: a lot. Belief in irrational bullshit can do a lot of harm.
I ran into an example of this just yesterday. [Source] Most of you by now have probably heard of the death of Jenni Rivera, the Latina "Diva de la Banda" whose music is immensely popular amongst Hispanics and non-Hispanics alike. Rivera was killed in a plane crash on Sunday near the town of Iturbide, Mexico, while on the way to a planned concert in Mexico City. Officials in Iturbide confirmed the crash of the plane, saying that there were no survivors; radar tracking of the aircraft indicates that it lost 28,000 feet of altitude in the last 30 seconds before it struck a mountainside. One person who visited the site said that the plane struck so violently that what's left of it is "scattered like a wash of pebbles."
A horrible tragedy for Rivera's family, friends, and fans. But things suddenly got worse on Monday, when a "psychic" named Gilbert Salas posted on his Facebook that he was certain that Rivera and her makeup artist, Jacob Yebale, who was traveling with her, were still alive.
"Yes it is correct that Jenni Rivera is still alive," Salas wrote. "I believe Jenni and her makeup artists survived, they are located 12 miles west from where they believe the wreckage occurred. It is located behind the mountain on theunderbelly [sic] side near a canyon. It is not visible from an aerial view because it is in a covered area. She is near a stream and she is able to hear the search teams fly overhead that's how close they are to her."
The result is that the family members have launched a campaign to rescue the injured singer and her companion -- and no one has been more insistent about this than Rivera's eleven-year-old son, Johnny Lopez Rivera. "My mama is alive," the boy tweeted on Monday, after reading Salas' post. "I lost hope but I got it back. She is not dead." Lopez Rivera and other members of Jenni Rivera's family have become so insistent that the singer survived that the hashtag #SaveJenni has trended on Twitter.
Of course, no one who has actual information about the crash thinks there is the remotest likelihood that anyone survived. It's not like there haven't been people at the crash site; eyewitnesses to the wreckage say that the plane was so thoroughly destroyed that there's barely anything recognizable, only twisted bits of scrap metal, cloth, and body parts. But facts barely matter when hope and tragedy meet -- especially when that hope is buoyed by someone who claims miraculous, supernatural knowledge of the situation.
This isn't the first time psychics have given the victims of tragedies false hope, only to be dashed when the real circumstances are confirmed. But somehow, these consistent failures never seem to keep the psychics from doing the same thing again -- or keep next bunch of bereaved loved ones from believing them. And of course, there's nothing illegal about what these charlatans are doing. Convincing someone that a lie is the truth isn't a crime, more's the pity.
But I do have to agree with the commentator quoted in Sharon Hill's wonderful blog Doubtful News, in response to the Rivera story: "If there is a hell, there is a special circle reserved for psychics who pull this crap."
The answer is: a lot. Belief in irrational bullshit can do a lot of harm.
I ran into an example of this just yesterday. [Source] Most of you by now have probably heard of the death of Jenni Rivera, the Latina "Diva de la Banda" whose music is immensely popular amongst Hispanics and non-Hispanics alike. Rivera was killed in a plane crash on Sunday near the town of Iturbide, Mexico, while on the way to a planned concert in Mexico City. Officials in Iturbide confirmed the crash of the plane, saying that there were no survivors; radar tracking of the aircraft indicates that it lost 28,000 feet of altitude in the last 30 seconds before it struck a mountainside. One person who visited the site said that the plane struck so violently that what's left of it is "scattered like a wash of pebbles."
A horrible tragedy for Rivera's family, friends, and fans. But things suddenly got worse on Monday, when a "psychic" named Gilbert Salas posted on his Facebook that he was certain that Rivera and her makeup artist, Jacob Yebale, who was traveling with her, were still alive.
"Yes it is correct that Jenni Rivera is still alive," Salas wrote. "I believe Jenni and her makeup artists survived, they are located 12 miles west from where they believe the wreckage occurred. It is located behind the mountain on theunderbelly [sic] side near a canyon. It is not visible from an aerial view because it is in a covered area. She is near a stream and she is able to hear the search teams fly overhead that's how close they are to her."
The result is that the family members have launched a campaign to rescue the injured singer and her companion -- and no one has been more insistent about this than Rivera's eleven-year-old son, Johnny Lopez Rivera. "My mama is alive," the boy tweeted on Monday, after reading Salas' post. "I lost hope but I got it back. She is not dead." Lopez Rivera and other members of Jenni Rivera's family have become so insistent that the singer survived that the hashtag #SaveJenni has trended on Twitter.
Of course, no one who has actual information about the crash thinks there is the remotest likelihood that anyone survived. It's not like there haven't been people at the crash site; eyewitnesses to the wreckage say that the plane was so thoroughly destroyed that there's barely anything recognizable, only twisted bits of scrap metal, cloth, and body parts. But facts barely matter when hope and tragedy meet -- especially when that hope is buoyed by someone who claims miraculous, supernatural knowledge of the situation.
This isn't the first time psychics have given the victims of tragedies false hope, only to be dashed when the real circumstances are confirmed. But somehow, these consistent failures never seem to keep the psychics from doing the same thing again -- or keep next bunch of bereaved loved ones from believing them. And of course, there's nothing illegal about what these charlatans are doing. Convincing someone that a lie is the truth isn't a crime, more's the pity.
But I do have to agree with the commentator quoted in Sharon Hill's wonderful blog Doubtful News, in response to the Rivera story: "If there is a hell, there is a special circle reserved for psychics who pull this crap."
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Ballard, the Black Sea, and the bible
Biblical literalists are crowing with delight over a recent news story that is being widely reported (and subsequently linked and circulated all over the place). Most iterations of this piece have titles like the version I found on ABC News Online: "New Evidence Suggests Biblical Flood Happened, Says Robert Ballard."
The upshot of the story is that Ballard, a prominent archaeologist (and the man whose team located the Titanic), believes that the Black Sea may have once been the site of a catastrophic flood. What is now a deep, salty body of water was once a freshwater lake whose surface was far below sea level -- the seawater being held back from filling it by an ice dam across what is now the Straits of Bosporus. As the weather warmed up following the last ice age, the ice dam receded and finally collapsed, allowing for a sudden, huge inrush of water from the Mediterranean, filling the Black Sea to its current level and drowning anyone who was in the way.
Such events are thought to have occurred elsewhere. A flood of that sort seems to have happened in the current St. Lawrence Seaway (dumping enough fresh water into the North Atlantic to stop the Atlantic Conveyor for a time and causing a second, shorter ice age), and the Columbia River Valley (creating the "Channeled Scablands" of eastern Washington and Oregon). So Ballard's idea is fascinating, and quite in line with our current understanding of glacial geology. Further, it's not unprecedented to have a real event recalled, and mythologized, often many centuries after it happened; so it's entirely possible that this event was the origin of the biblical flood story, and also similar accounts in other traditions (such as the flood mentioned in Gilgamesh).
But of course, this is not how it was reported. The story strongly implies that Ballard is saying that his evidence indicates that the "Great Flood of Noah" actually occurred, as described in the bible -- which is an outright misrepresentation of Ballard's position.
Don't believe me? Here are actual quotes from the ABC News Online article:
If I were Ballard, I'd be pissed.
So, let's just get a few things straight, here. Saying that a bunch of Bronze-Age sheepherders tried to rationalize a cataclysmic flood that washed away bunches of their ancestors by making up a story about god smiting the world for its wickedness is not the same thing as saying that the flood, as per the Book of Genesis, actually occurred. The breaking of an ice dam is not the same thing as it "raining for forty days and forty nights." If an ice dam near your house broke, releasing millions of tons of seawater, you would not have time to build an ark, you would only have time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. You would also not have time to run really quickly and get a pair of wombats from Australia and a pair of three-toed sloths from Brazil, and so on. And while the amount of water in the Black Sea is what is known in scientific circles as "a crapload of water," it does not amount to the entire Earth being covered with water.
The idea of a global flood is, to put not too fine a point on it, unscientific, unsupported, zero-evidence horse waste. The fact that ABC News Online, and many other media outlets, reported Ballard's fascinating work as supporting the literal account of the bible is crummy journalism, and the reporters who produced this hack job of a story should be ashamed of themselves.
The upshot of the story is that Ballard, a prominent archaeologist (and the man whose team located the Titanic), believes that the Black Sea may have once been the site of a catastrophic flood. What is now a deep, salty body of water was once a freshwater lake whose surface was far below sea level -- the seawater being held back from filling it by an ice dam across what is now the Straits of Bosporus. As the weather warmed up following the last ice age, the ice dam receded and finally collapsed, allowing for a sudden, huge inrush of water from the Mediterranean, filling the Black Sea to its current level and drowning anyone who was in the way.
Such events are thought to have occurred elsewhere. A flood of that sort seems to have happened in the current St. Lawrence Seaway (dumping enough fresh water into the North Atlantic to stop the Atlantic Conveyor for a time and causing a second, shorter ice age), and the Columbia River Valley (creating the "Channeled Scablands" of eastern Washington and Oregon). So Ballard's idea is fascinating, and quite in line with our current understanding of glacial geology. Further, it's not unprecedented to have a real event recalled, and mythologized, often many centuries after it happened; so it's entirely possible that this event was the origin of the biblical flood story, and also similar accounts in other traditions (such as the flood mentioned in Gilgamesh).
But of course, this is not how it was reported. The story strongly implies that Ballard is saying that his evidence indicates that the "Great Flood of Noah" actually occurred, as described in the bible -- which is an outright misrepresentation of Ballard's position.
Don't believe me? Here are actual quotes from the ABC News Online article:
The story of Noah's Ark and the Great Flood is one of the most famous from the Bible, and now an acclaimed underwater archaeologist thinks he has found proof that the biblical flood was actually based on real events.Buried in the center of the article is a bit that says, "The theory goes on to suggest that the story of this traumatic event, seared into the collective memory of the survivors, was passed down from generation to generation and eventually inspired the biblical account of Noah," but this is so colossally outweighed by all of the biblical references that Ballard is made to look like some kind of literalist wacko out there diving into the Black Sea looking for evidence of a flood whose only survivors were the family of a 600 year old man.
Now Ballard is using even more advanced robotic technology to travel farther back in time. He is on a marine archeological mission that might support the story of Noah.
By carbon dating shells found along the shoreline, Ballard said he believes they have established a timeline for that catastrophic event, which he estimates happened around 5,000 BC. Some experts believe this was around the time when Noah's flood could have occurred.
Noah is described in the Bible as a family man, a father of three, who is about to celebrate his 600th birthday.
Regardless of whether the details of the Noah story are historically accurate, Armstrong (author of A History of God) believes this story and all the Biblical stories are telling us "about our predicament in the world now."
Ballard does not think he will ever find Noah's Ark, but he does think he may find evidence of a people whose entire world was washed away about 7,000 years ago.
If I were Ballard, I'd be pissed.
So, let's just get a few things straight, here. Saying that a bunch of Bronze-Age sheepherders tried to rationalize a cataclysmic flood that washed away bunches of their ancestors by making up a story about god smiting the world for its wickedness is not the same thing as saying that the flood, as per the Book of Genesis, actually occurred. The breaking of an ice dam is not the same thing as it "raining for forty days and forty nights." If an ice dam near your house broke, releasing millions of tons of seawater, you would not have time to build an ark, you would only have time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. You would also not have time to run really quickly and get a pair of wombats from Australia and a pair of three-toed sloths from Brazil, and so on. And while the amount of water in the Black Sea is what is known in scientific circles as "a crapload of water," it does not amount to the entire Earth being covered with water.
The idea of a global flood is, to put not too fine a point on it, unscientific, unsupported, zero-evidence horse waste. The fact that ABC News Online, and many other media outlets, reported Ballard's fascinating work as supporting the literal account of the bible is crummy journalism, and the reporters who produced this hack job of a story should be ashamed of themselves.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Gangnam Style, Nostradamus, and the end of the world
This morning I have a poem for you, Dear Readers. See what you make of it.
If you think you know the answer to the first half of the question, it's probably because of two things: (1) its characteristic style, laid out in four short phrases, with no obvious rhyme or rhythmic structure; and (2) its wacky, opaque imagery. This by itself is probably enough for you to conclude that it must be one of the famous "quatrains of Nostradamus," the writings of renowned 16th century wingnut Michel de Nostredame (1503-1566), who, depending upon whom you believe, either was a prescient seer who has correctly predicted everything from the assassination of JFK to Hurricane Sandy, or a wacko crank who wrote down predictions that are so vague that they could be interpreted any way you want.
Guess which I believe.
Of course, probably most of you knew about Nostradamus already, and in any case the subject of his overall veracity has been beaten unto death in other venues. Why, then, did I begin this post with one of his quatrains?
Two reasons, actually. The first is that there is currently a claim zinging its way around the internet to the effect that this quatrain was referring to Psy's viral hit "Gangnam Style" (the "dancing horse"), which came out of Korea (the "land of the calm morning"), recently topped one billion hits (nine zeroes -- "nine circles"), and that this means that the world will end, undoubtedly a week from Friday, As Spoken In The Prophecy.
Add this to the fact that Nostradamus himself was born (according to his Wikipedia entry) either on December 14 or December 21, 1503, and I think we have here what the lawyers like to call "an airtight case."
Well, except for the second reason I posted all of this, which is: this isn't actually one of Nostradamus' quatrains.
The origin of the claim was someone who posted it on the phenomenally wacky site Godlike Productions (see the original post here), and interestingly, it almost instantly got called out as bullshit by people who (like I did) took the extra two minutes to see if the quote was actually from Nostradamus. (If you want to spend a few hours turning your brain into cream of mushroom soup, all of Nostradamus' predictions are available here. You won't, if you're wondering, find any mention of a "dancing horse" in any of them.) Eventually the original poster admitted that he'd made it all up, but even with all of the screams of "Lies! It's all lies!" and the original poster's confession, this still made it out into the web as a valid claim. After that, it spiraled out of control, even making it onto mainstream media (I ran into it on The Examiner).
So, what we have here is a repeat of the ridiculous "Rebecca Black's 'Friday' is about the JFK assassination" incident, but with the added twist that even the guy who made it up admits that it was a hoax.
And yet, still people believe it. I have, to date, been asked three times by students if I'd "heard that Nostradamus said that 'Gangnam Style' was going to cause the Mayan apocalypse."
Now, don't get me wrong; it wouldn't surprise me if "Gangnam Style" triggered the End of the World. In fact, I thought Rebecca Black's "Friday" was going to do the same thing, and for the same reason; both songs are so bad that when people hear them, they suddenly feel an urge to stick objects into their ears, even if those objects happen to be screwdrivers. So I can see how either song, or (heaven forfend) both of them played one after the other, would cause massive mortality.
But as far as "Gangnam Style" having anything to do with Nostradamus, or the Mayan apocalypse, I'm afraid that the answer is "no." The only people who believe it are those who don't know how to do a source search. And the guy who originated the claim made the whole thing up. Which, now that I come to think of it, is all Nostradamus himself did, so I suppose it's fitting, somehow.
From the calm morning,Well, what do you think? Most especially, do you know where it's from, and what it means?
the end will come;
when of the dancing horse,
the number of circles will be nine.
If you think you know the answer to the first half of the question, it's probably because of two things: (1) its characteristic style, laid out in four short phrases, with no obvious rhyme or rhythmic structure; and (2) its wacky, opaque imagery. This by itself is probably enough for you to conclude that it must be one of the famous "quatrains of Nostradamus," the writings of renowned 16th century wingnut Michel de Nostredame (1503-1566), who, depending upon whom you believe, either was a prescient seer who has correctly predicted everything from the assassination of JFK to Hurricane Sandy, or a wacko crank who wrote down predictions that are so vague that they could be interpreted any way you want.
Guess which I believe.
Of course, probably most of you knew about Nostradamus already, and in any case the subject of his overall veracity has been beaten unto death in other venues. Why, then, did I begin this post with one of his quatrains?
Two reasons, actually. The first is that there is currently a claim zinging its way around the internet to the effect that this quatrain was referring to Psy's viral hit "Gangnam Style" (the "dancing horse"), which came out of Korea (the "land of the calm morning"), recently topped one billion hits (nine zeroes -- "nine circles"), and that this means that the world will end, undoubtedly a week from Friday, As Spoken In The Prophecy.
Add this to the fact that Nostradamus himself was born (according to his Wikipedia entry) either on December 14 or December 21, 1503, and I think we have here what the lawyers like to call "an airtight case."
Well, except for the second reason I posted all of this, which is: this isn't actually one of Nostradamus' quatrains.
The origin of the claim was someone who posted it on the phenomenally wacky site Godlike Productions (see the original post here), and interestingly, it almost instantly got called out as bullshit by people who (like I did) took the extra two minutes to see if the quote was actually from Nostradamus. (If you want to spend a few hours turning your brain into cream of mushroom soup, all of Nostradamus' predictions are available here. You won't, if you're wondering, find any mention of a "dancing horse" in any of them.) Eventually the original poster admitted that he'd made it all up, but even with all of the screams of "Lies! It's all lies!" and the original poster's confession, this still made it out into the web as a valid claim. After that, it spiraled out of control, even making it onto mainstream media (I ran into it on The Examiner).
So, what we have here is a repeat of the ridiculous "Rebecca Black's 'Friday' is about the JFK assassination" incident, but with the added twist that even the guy who made it up admits that it was a hoax.
And yet, still people believe it. I have, to date, been asked three times by students if I'd "heard that Nostradamus said that 'Gangnam Style' was going to cause the Mayan apocalypse."
Now, don't get me wrong; it wouldn't surprise me if "Gangnam Style" triggered the End of the World. In fact, I thought Rebecca Black's "Friday" was going to do the same thing, and for the same reason; both songs are so bad that when people hear them, they suddenly feel an urge to stick objects into their ears, even if those objects happen to be screwdrivers. So I can see how either song, or (heaven forfend) both of them played one after the other, would cause massive mortality.
But as far as "Gangnam Style" having anything to do with Nostradamus, or the Mayan apocalypse, I'm afraid that the answer is "no." The only people who believe it are those who don't know how to do a source search. And the guy who originated the claim made the whole thing up. Which, now that I come to think of it, is all Nostradamus himself did, so I suppose it's fitting, somehow.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Lights out
So apparently we don't already have enough nonsense being thrown about online regarding the End of the World, now the Tibetans have gotten involved. [Source]
I find it interesting how many folks here in the Western World automatically give more credence to a story if it comes from somewhere mystical-sounding. Look at how many "alternative medicine" treatments come from places like Peru, India, or the American Southwest (adding "Hopi" to a product's name is a sure-fire winner, which makes me wonder how the actual Hopi feel about all of this). Of course, being from one of those places is no guarantee of not being a complete raving wackmobile, as was evidenced just yesterday in a pronouncement by Gyandrek, a Tibetan lama, who sent the following highly illuminating message to NASA, which I present here verbatim:
Now, you're probably thinking, "Why are you even bothering to post this? How could anyone whose IQ exceeds his shoe size believe any of this? I mean, really?"
Apparently, tens of thousands of people in China could. According to a story in The Telegraph, there has been a run on candles and non-perishable food in local markets, because of the predictions of "continuous darkness" and fear that the electrical supply will fail. A 54-year-old university professor's wife in Nanjing took out a £100,000 mortgage on her £300,000 home and plans to give all of the money to underprivileged children, so that she can "do something meaningful before the world ends." (Hard to imagine how the underprivileged children are going to spend all of that money in just ten days, but at least the sentiment is nice.) The Chinese government has tried to counteract all of the silliness, putting out messages directing people to ignore any End-of-the-World nonsense, but apparently it's not having much effect.
For me, the effect is to make me weep softly while banging my forehead on my computer keyboard.
Let's just be clear about this, okay? The planets are not going to line up a week from Friday. We are not going to have two months, or even three days, of darkness at the solstice. There is no such thing as a "galactic zero band." And while I'm sure the Mayans and the Tibetans are lovely people, their ability to predict stuff kind of sucks. No one at NASA is taking any of this seriously, although I'm sure that their receptionist is going to be really glad when the 21st has come and gone so that (s)he can stop having to field calls from panicked wingnuts wondering what the scientists recommend doing to maximize your chances of surviving.
Of course, my tendency to scoff doesn't mean I can't have a little fun with the whole idea. As for me, I'm hosting a party on the 21st. We'll have plenty of high-fat food, and sugary desserts, because after all, we won't have to face any repercussions with our doctors if we're all dead (or ascended, or in the dark, depending on which version you go for). There will, of course, be lots of beer and wine. For the Rapture-minded, we'll have a Confess Your Sins booth, although offhand I can't think of any of our friends who is nearly holy enough to hear confession and grant absolution. My wife wanted to dress up as either a Mayan princess or like Tina Turner in Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome, but the costume store was all out of both of those, so she's just going to surprise me. As for me, I'm coming as a zombie, and just hope that no one thinks to bring a cricket bat.
I find it interesting how many folks here in the Western World automatically give more credence to a story if it comes from somewhere mystical-sounding. Look at how many "alternative medicine" treatments come from places like Peru, India, or the American Southwest (adding "Hopi" to a product's name is a sure-fire winner, which makes me wonder how the actual Hopi feel about all of this). Of course, being from one of those places is no guarantee of not being a complete raving wackmobile, as was evidenced just yesterday in a pronouncement by Gyandrek, a Tibetan lama, who sent the following highly illuminating message to NASA, which I present here verbatim:
In late December, the Solar system planets line up in a row, which is a unique case.Well, I think we can all agree that this sounds pretty dire, especially the "darkness accompanied by light" part. I'm sure that all of the scientists at NASA were tickled that Gyandrek felt obliged to weigh in on the situation, and are sincerely thankful that he warned them that according to his information, the "Solar system planets" are all going to line up in a row, sending us into the "galactic zero band." Whatever the hell that is.
Fall and winter will be warm, and from 12/21/2012 Earth will begin to pass through the galactic zero band. This is a special state space where the blanked and not be subject to any energy.
Was complete darkness and silence. The electricity and communications. Darkness will be accompanied by flashes of light, as well as the play of light and shadow.
Sometimes it may seem that roam figures – as if the dead rose from their graves. earth will shake slightly – like a small earthquake. Some buildings can be destroyed.
Animals feel the earth before the coming of the cosmic dark and go to ground. People in cities do not feel so are the victims of insanity. Can be lost 10% of the population.
You need to prepare for this change of cycles to complete all the works in 2012, not to tie new, pay off debts.
20.12.2012 to take their children, all documents, cash and get out of town into the countryside. Prepare a supply of food for two months, as supply will be restored for a long time.
It is necessary to have in the house supply of water, firewood and candles for lighting. You need to have the stove in the house, as the electricity stops flowing from 21.12.2012 on the wire.
Communications and TV are turned off. During the "dark days" hang windows dark, not to look at them, do not believe your eyes and ears, not to go out. If you see the need to go, you cannot go far – you can get lost, as you’ll even his own hands.
After the appearance of the world is not in a hurry to return to the city, it is better to live in the nature of spring.
Now, you're probably thinking, "Why are you even bothering to post this? How could anyone whose IQ exceeds his shoe size believe any of this? I mean, really?"
Apparently, tens of thousands of people in China could. According to a story in The Telegraph, there has been a run on candles and non-perishable food in local markets, because of the predictions of "continuous darkness" and fear that the electrical supply will fail. A 54-year-old university professor's wife in Nanjing took out a £100,000 mortgage on her £300,000 home and plans to give all of the money to underprivileged children, so that she can "do something meaningful before the world ends." (Hard to imagine how the underprivileged children are going to spend all of that money in just ten days, but at least the sentiment is nice.) The Chinese government has tried to counteract all of the silliness, putting out messages directing people to ignore any End-of-the-World nonsense, but apparently it's not having much effect.
For me, the effect is to make me weep softly while banging my forehead on my computer keyboard.
Let's just be clear about this, okay? The planets are not going to line up a week from Friday. We are not going to have two months, or even three days, of darkness at the solstice. There is no such thing as a "galactic zero band." And while I'm sure the Mayans and the Tibetans are lovely people, their ability to predict stuff kind of sucks. No one at NASA is taking any of this seriously, although I'm sure that their receptionist is going to be really glad when the 21st has come and gone so that (s)he can stop having to field calls from panicked wingnuts wondering what the scientists recommend doing to maximize your chances of surviving.
Of course, my tendency to scoff doesn't mean I can't have a little fun with the whole idea. As for me, I'm hosting a party on the 21st. We'll have plenty of high-fat food, and sugary desserts, because after all, we won't have to face any repercussions with our doctors if we're all dead (or ascended, or in the dark, depending on which version you go for). There will, of course, be lots of beer and wine. For the Rapture-minded, we'll have a Confess Your Sins booth, although offhand I can't think of any of our friends who is nearly holy enough to hear confession and grant absolution. My wife wanted to dress up as either a Mayan princess or like Tina Turner in Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome, but the costume store was all out of both of those, so she's just going to surprise me. As for me, I'm coming as a zombie, and just hope that no one thinks to bring a cricket bat.
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