Hark, hark, the shark

I guess it was bound to happen.

It started decades ago, with Jaws.  Then you had the hyped-up "documentaries" of the 80s and 90s featuring lines like, "Let's put the bikini-clad Baywatch wannabee in the giant metal cage, lower it into the water, and throw around bleeding fish parts, and see what happens."  But things ramped up considerably when the Discovery channel started "Shark Week."  Then we had the following, which made a lot of us science types shake our heads and say, "Um... really?":

Oh, if only it were "enough said."  Because you know it's not.  It is never enough said, once the ball gets rolling, especially if the ball has teeth and fins.  Because just a few days ago we had a new "documentary" on Discovery, one that upped the ante even further, by claiming that one of the largest seagoing predators that has ever lived... is still alive.

 Called Carcharodon megalodon, or just "Megalodon" for short, this thing was, to put it bluntly, freakin' huge.  Fossils have been found that indicate that the biggest ones could reach 18 meters in length (for reference, the largest great white sharks get to be about 6 meters long).  So, this was one scary-ass beast, the likes of which would make me hesitant to set foot in the ocean again.

If it still existed.  Which it doesn't.  Scientists are in agreement that Megalodon went extinct about 1.5 million years ago.  But of course, given the foolishness that has appeared on Discovery (remember Finding Bigfoot?  and The Haunted?  and, most germane to our discussion here, Mermaids: The Body Found?), I shouldn't really be surprised.

Oh, but there's a poll!  Because scientific truth is determined by public consensus, evidently.  You can vote that "YES! The evidence for Megalodon can't be ignored! The monster shark lives!" or "Maybe.  95% of our oceans remain unexplored, so it's possible that Megalodon is still out there."  Or (and I imagine this choice accompanied by a sad shake of the head), "No.  The scientists are right."  So, anyway, I voted (guess which way?), mostly so I could see what the results were, and was unsurprised that 32% of the respondents voted "yes," and 48% "maybe," leaving the poor scientists in the dust with a paltry 20% of the vote.

Of course, given that a common attitude is that public school biology curricula should eliminate the teaching of evolution "because lots of people don't believe in it," I shouldn't be surprised that (1) the public is easy to hoodwink into believing nonsense, and (2) there's a sense that science is a democracy.

Now, don't misunderstand me.  I love the ocean, and I think sharks are really cool.  And there's no doubt that charismatic megafauna are big sellers, explaining why you see lots of calendars and framed prints and greeting cards and tattoos with images of wolves, lions, and jaguars, and far fewer with wombats, possums, and naked mole rats.  I get why there's never been a film called Rabbitnado, although I have to admit I would watch it, especially if the bunnies turned out to be like the Beast of Caer Bannog:

But that's just me.  And since these media outlets exist to make money, not to promote good science, it's no wonder they jump on the bandwagon.

Sharon Hill, in her wonderful blog Doubtful News, did a piece on Megalodon recently, and expressed hope that "Shark Week" and other dubious attempts at nature documentary would raise awareness of shark conservation.  Me, I'm less sanguine.  When the movie Jaws came out in 1975, there followed a senseless slaughter of sharks of all sorts, including the completely harmless gray nurse shark.  Just as people don't get that science is done based on evidence, not on voting in a poll, they also don't tend to respond rationally when an irresponsible media outlet has ramped up the fear.

Anyhow, that's today's exercise in futility.  Given that Megalodon got "record ratings," I'm doubtful that anything I say is going to have an effect.  Maybe I should make my own documentary, you think?  You can't beat 'em, join 'em.  How about Hopping Mad: Is Australia's Carnivorous Kangaroo Still Alive in the Outback?  Start with some photographs of fossil skeletons:

Follow up with some scary drawings:

Hire a scientist or two to weigh in on how we can never be sure that an animal is extinct, because the Coelacanth, you know, and so on.  Then have a poll.   Sure fire winner, right?

Of course, right.

Seeing stars

I am endlessly amused (or endlessly frustrated, depending on my mood) by the way the same piece of information can be interpreted by different woo-woos to support each of their varying, and in many cases mutually contradictory, views of the world.  All of them take the same bit of data, and put their own spin on it, so that it becomes some kind of purportedly incontrovertible support for whatever they already believed in.

In short order, you have a multilayered rainbow-colored cake of craziness, with nuts.

Take, for example, the curious photograph that is currently zinging its way around the Internet, an image from Google Maps taken by satellite of a spot near Lisakovsk, Kazakhstan:

The thing is real, not a photoshopped image; type the coordinates 52°28’46.86″N 62°11’7.68″E into Google Earth to see it for yourself.  But of course, once you know it's real, what is it?

You can bet that the fundamentalist Christians have an answer to that.

The upside-down pentagram is well known as a sign of Satan, and this cadre has accompanied the photograph with a dire-sounding message that the Time Of The Antichrist Is At Hand.  This version of the story is also accompanied by a claim that the pentagram appeared near a pair of towns called "Adam" and "Lucifer," a statement that is supposed to be significant somehow but for which I could find no corroboration.  And frankly, that part sounds a little spurious to me.  Most of the towns in Kazakhstan that I could find on a map have names like "Zhezkagan" and "Stepnogorsk."  "Adam" and "Lucifer" sound a little... anglo to me to be place names in that part of the world.

And, after all, New York has an Adams County and a Lucifer Falls, and I haven't seen any giant pentagrams appearing around here, so there's that.

Another thing, though, is that whether this looks like an upside-down pentagram depends on the angle from which you view it.  Turn the photograph around, or (in fact) rotate it by 36° in either direction,  and all of a sudden it becomes a right-side-up pentagram.  So just color me unconvinced that this is a sign of the End Times.

But of course, the evangelical Christians aren't the only ones who have weighed in on the curious photograph.  You also have the ones who think it's a sign from Mother Earth that we are "abusing nature" and that we need to be more considerate of our environment.  This version of the story has a piece about the pentagram being one of the "signs that we cannot continue to harm our planet without the planet letting us know about it."

These are presumably the same people who think that crop circles are a way for the Spirit of Nature to inform us to give up coal mining and take up organic farming and wear clothes woven from hemp.  And these folks think the upside-down pentagram isn't an evil symbol at all, but a positive, vital neopagan symbol that has suddenly appeared to bring us all to some kind of environmental enlightenment.

Then, you have the people who think that the pentagram is "an unfinished summer camp for the children of the Illuminati."  Because the Illuminati are just that sneaky and secretive, that they would create a structure that you couldn't ever find out about unless you happened to check out Google Maps.  According to this guy, "Kazakistan" (which is how he pronounces it throughout the entire video) is part of the "bloodline of the Illuminati."  Whatever that means.  But that's where the whole world is being controlled from, so... so... just don't let your guard down for a minute.

You know how that goes.

The speculation doesn't end there, however.  There's another group who weighed in on the topic, and they don't think the star is a symbol of Satan, the Illuminati, or Gaea, but a communiqué from... you'll never guess who.

Righty-o.  Because intelligent extraterrestrials who have expended a great amount of effort, time, and energy to get to Earth from a planet light years away would have nothing better to do than to draw a giant star on the ground and then leave.

Of course, the actual explanation turned out to be much simpler.  No Antichrist, Nature Spirits, New World Order, or extraterrestrials needed.

"It is the outline of a park made in the form of a star," archaeologist Emma Usmanova said in an interview with LiveScience about the geographical oddity.  "The star was a popular symbol during the Soviet era.  Stars were often used throughout the Soviet Union to decorate building facades, flags and monuments...  We believe that the star shape was the abandoned site of a Soviet-era lakeside campground."

And Usmanova apparently has years of experience working in the Lisakovsk area, so she should know.

Not that I expect that this will shut up the It's Aliens crew, much less the neopagans or the fundamentalists.  But that's how confirmation bias works, isn't it?  You latch on to an explanation for something because it fits what you already believed, and hang on like grim death even if there's a plausible explanation to the contrary.  Because, let's face it; when it comes to choosing an explanation, "an abandoned campground site" just doesn't have the gravitas that Satan, Mother Earth, the Illuminati, and aliens do.

The skeptic goes on vacation

Well, this will be my last post for a week and a half.  I'm off at way-too-early-o'clock tomorrow morning for the lovely city of Portland, Oregon, for the Cascade Writers' Convention, where I will be participating in workshops focusing on the other kind of writing I do (fiction).  After that, I'm home for only a day or two before going off to Dayton, Ohio for a friend's wedding.  So with all of that to-ing and fro-ing, I'm going to take a wee break from battling the woo-woos.  My next Skeptophilia post will be on Monday, August 5.

Until then, there are a few things you can do to keep your appetite for critical thinking sated.  First, you can buy my book, if you haven't already done so.  It has the creative title Skeptophilia, is a bargain at only $3.99, and is a collection of 120 of my essays on science, skepticism, critical thinking, and woo-woo-ism.  You can get it for Kindle (here) or Nook (here).   If you do decide to buy it, many thanks -- and please leave a review.

This is also a chance for you to check out some other skeptical blogs and webpages, so here are a few of my favorites:

Science, Reason, and Critical Thinking
James Randi Educational Foundation
Pharyngula
SkepChick
The Skeptic's Dictionary
The Call of Troythulu
The Richard Dawkins Foundation for Science and Reason
Friendly Atheist
Quackwatch
Bad Archaeology
Bad Astronomy


If you, too, would like to take a break from thinking about all of the crazy things people believe, there's always fiction to be read.  Mine.  Yes, this is a moment of shameless self-promotion.  Besides the books linked on the sidebar, there are over a dozen other titles to choose from, which you can peruse on my Amazon author's page.  You will note that almost all of them have to do with the paranormal, an irony that my wife thinks is amusing.  Me, I just think that this is why they're filed under the heading "Fiction."  But you should still read them, because they're awesome.

If I do say so myself.

That should be enough to keep you occupied while I'm gone, don't you think?  I encourage you to continue sending me topics -- I'll be ready to sit down and write again when I get back from my travels, and would love to have some ideas of what you'd like me to write about.  Until then, keep hoisting the banner of logic!

The wrath of Herman

We have an interesting story developing in Illinois, where a church pastor has raised some eyebrows by calling down the wrath of god on a federal judge.

Herman Jackson, who is the bishop of the Ark of Safety Apostolic Faith Temple of Cicero (a suburb of Chicago), ran afoul of the law last October when he was arrested on charges of fraud, with allegations that he had been swindling state day care funds.  Jackson was already notorious for a conspicuously flashy lifestyle, with a fleet of luxury vehicles that included a Bentley, a Jaguar, and two Mercedes, and a second home in Georgia, leading non-church-members to suspect that Bishop Jackson may have other priorities than spreading the word of god.

Be that as it may, Jackson was arrested and then freed on bond, but had a directive to live in the bedroom in his church rather than returning to Georgia to be with his family.  Jackson objected to this condition, saying that he needed to drive his 15-year-old son to school, an excuse that in my opinion ranks right up there with "the dog ate my homework" in believability.

So the judge overseeing the case, Sharon Johnson Coleman, refused to let him go.  Jackson blew his stack, and said, "Because of Judge Sharon Coleman’s continual mocking of God’s ecclesiastical order and the sanctity of family and marriage, the wrath of God almighty shall soon visit her home."

One guiding principle of life in the United States is, "Threatening a federal judge is a bad idea."  Speaking with the measured tone that befits her position, she said that she "has concerns about Mr. Jackson’s ability to comply with bond conditions and to appreciate the severity and magnitude of the situation in which he finds himself."

In other words: you can take your wrath of god and stick it where the sun don't shine.

Jackson, however, didn't back down, and continues to claim that the Almighty is on his side.  "I was in prayer.  This is what God told me.  I don’t have the power.  God has the power."

You have to wonder how all of the "America is a Christian Nation" people are going to respond to this.  On the one hand, you have a federal judge, who is clearly carrying out her sworn duty in prosecuting this wingnut.  On the other hand, you have a guy who sincerely believes that he's hearing the voice of god, and that voice is fully in support of everything he does.

Because, of course, "calling down god's wrath" kind of happens all the time in the bible, and when they read these passages, most Christians seem to shrug and say, "Well, you know, god is just like that."  We have, for example, 2 Kings 23-24, where the prophet Elisha is meandering about, and some kids make fun of him:

From there Elisha went up to Bethel. As he was walking along the road, some boys came out of the town and jeered at him. “Get out of here, baldy!” they said. “Get out of here, baldy!”  He turned around, looked at them and called down a curse on them in the name of the Lord. Then two bears came out of the woods and mauled forty-two of the boys.

Well, that's edifying.   And lest you think that this is the sort of thing that only happened in the Old Testament, that by New Testament times god had upped his dosage of antipsychotic meds, we have the lovely tale of Ananias and Sapphira in Acts 5:1-11, which goes as follows:

Now a man named Ananias, together with his wife Sapphira, also sold a piece of property. With his wife’s full knowledge he kept back part of the money for himself, but brought the rest and put it at the apostles’ feet.

Then Peter said, “Ananias, how is it that Satan has so filled your heart that you have lied to the Holy Spirit and have kept for yourself some of the money you received for the land?  Didn’t it belong to you before it was sold?  And after it was sold, wasn’t the money at your disposal? What made you think of doing such a thing?  You have not lied just to human beings but to God.”

When Ananias heard this, he fell down and died. And great fear seized all who heard what had happened.  Then some young men came forward, wrapped up his body, and carried him out and buried him.

About three hours later his wife came in, not knowing what had happened.  Peter asked her, “Tell me, is this the price you and Ananias got for the land?”

“Yes,” she said, “that is the price.”

Peter said to her, “How could you conspire to test the Spirit of the Lord?  Listen!  The feet of the men who buried your husband are at the door, and they will carry you out also.”

At that moment she fell down at his feet and died. Then the young men came in and, finding her dead, carried her out and buried her beside her husband.  Great fear seized the whole church and all who heard about these events.

I'll just bet it did.

So Bishop Jackson does have some basis for his actions.  Not that the wrath of god seems like it's all that easy to call down these days, for some reason.  In spite of the fact that the folks in the bible seemed to be able to get god to smite people left and right, for damn near anything, nowadays it doesn't happen nearly so often.  I know my dad used to regularly request that the wrath of god descend upon tailgaters and telemarketers, and I don't recall that in either case anyone dropped dead or got eaten by a bear.

Which is kind of a shame, now that I come to think of it.

So, I don't think that Judge Coleman has all that much to worry about.  But it'll be interesting to see how this plays out -- if she decides that what Bishop Jackson has said actually constitutes a threat.  If so, I'm guessing that even living in his church will cease to be an option, and he'll find himself being fitted for an orange jumpsuit post-haste.

So, that's our news from the wacky religious fringe.  I live in hope that even the devout Christians who hear about people like Bishop Jackson don't believe his fire-and-brimstone pronouncements, although there are dozens of biblical passages that then require some rather awkward explanation.   So keep your eye on the Chicago area.  Let me know if you hear about bears in the vicinity.  Other than these guys:

Psychic disasters

It's been a month of mixed news in the psychic world.  First, we had news that the Texas psychic who said that there was a mass grave on property belonging to a couple in Liberty County (and "bones in the house and messages written on the wall in blood") had to pay the couple $6.8 million in damages for defamation.  But it doesn't always work out that way; only a few days later, we heard that "Britain's favorite medium," Psychic Sally Morgan, had won a $193,000 award in her lawsuit against The Daily Mail after a reporter claimed that she had tricked an Irish audience by getting information from an accomplice through an earpiece.

But neither of the judgments should have been a surprise to the psychics, right?  Of course right.

Be that as it may, the psychics may be feeling a little beleaguered, of late.  At least, that's the impression I get from Ron Bard, who calls himself "The King of Psychics," who has been trying desperately to save either Japan or his reputation, depending on which version of the story you go for.

Bard, who is US-born but who has lived in Japan for some years, recently made a prediction that the country was going to be struck by a major disaster "some time before the end of 2013."  He had a press conference about it, where he told a reporter that everyone had better listen to him, for death awaits, with big, nasty, pointy teeth.

And the overall reaction he got was:

*silence*

Well, naturally, you don't get to be the King of Psychics if you're willing to take something like that lying down.  So he naturally turned to the most convincing medium for disseminating vital information, used by everyone from the Pope on down: Twitter.

Here is the series of Tweets Bard wrote (translation courtesy of Yoko Fujimoto):

To everyone in Japan, once again, hello. I have some important messages to convey to you today in Japanese. 

Last night, I was able to see into the future of Japan. I’d like to share those visions with you.

In two or three months, Japan is going to experience a natural disaster.

My message is very important. Everyone, please retweet this so that many people in Japan will know. In particular, tell your family, friends and loved ones. Please tell as many people as possible to follow me on Twitter.

This is not a joke. If you are not going to believe this message, please go ahead and stop reading now.

But if you would like to keep your loved ones and many other safe, pass my message on to as many people as possible. Or have them follow me on Twitter.

For the next couple of months, please read my tweets carefully. As the day of the disaster gets closer, I will be able to say which parts of Japan are most at risk.

As you all know, I predicted the March 11 disaster. Around the summer of 2010, it began to become clear to me. That prediction was published in the Tokyo Sports Shimbun, but it appears few people took notice of it. That’s why I want to stress the importance of my message this time.

If you want to protect your family and friends and others around you, please take my tweets seriously. And encourage people to follow me on Twitter. In this way, many people’s lives might be saved.

When it has passed, two or three months feels like a twinkling of an eye, but when there are two or three months to go, it feels like an eternity. But time is of the essence. From this moment on, you must imagine yourself in a state of emergency, and it is important that you prepare yourself mentally, as well as stocking up necessary goods.

I was raised in Christianity and Judaism, but now I believe that Japan is the source of all the world’s religions. Everyone, please pray together with me for the safety of the people of Japan. If you pray with me, perhaps we will be able to save your family, friends and loved ones.

Well, that convinces me.  Especially since if you look carefully at his claim to have "predicted the March 11 disaster" (the day of the horrific earthquake and tsunami in 2011), his actual prediction on March 8 reads, and I quote, "Before Japan reaches a major turning point, it is going to experience a great difficulty."

I'm sorry, Mr. Bard, could you be a little more vague?  Because I almost felt like I had to take action, there.

So it's not like he's exactly known for giving details.  If on March 8, he had said, "The spirits have told me that it's time to shut down the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor, because it's about to be hit by a bigass wave," I might pay a little more attention.

What's funniest about all of this is his last tweet, about how if we all pray together maybe the disaster won't happen after all.  So this makes his message sum up as follows:

1)  Please follow me on Twitter.

2)  A horrifying disaster will hit Japan in the next few months, so you need to be prepared.

3)  And follow me on Twitter.

4)  Except maybe the disaster won't happen if you pray a lot.

5)  And follow me on Twitter.

6)  So don't blame me if you don't listen and end up getting yourself killed.

7)  Which is what will happen if you don't follow me on Twitter.

Myself, I find the increasing desperation of the psychics, mediums, and other woo-woo con artists to be a good thing.  Maybe it means that finally, finally people aren't listening to them any more, and have realized that what they really excel at are two things: (1) on-stage drama; and (2) making shit up.  And I don't know about you, but I'm not paying good money for that kind of thing.  If I had my way, they'd be playing to empty rooms.

Nor will I even follow them on Twitter.

Teacher scores and error bars

One of the first rules of handling data that students learn in science classes is the concept of "significant figures."  Although the rules for determining whether a particular digit in a measurement or calculation is significant (i.e. reliably accurate) are a little complicated, the whole idea boils down to a simplistic concept:

When you do a calculation that combines various pieces of measured data, the result cannot be any more accurate than the least accurate piece of data that went into the calculation.

It's why you see "error bars" around data points in scientific papers.  You have to keep in mind how precise the data is, so that when you combine different measurements, you know how accurate the result is.  And the difficulty is that error is cumulative; the more pieces of data you combine, the greater the cumulative error becomes, and the lower the confidence that the outcome is actually right.

Which brings me to how teachers' grades are being calculated in New York state.

Our grades this year are a composite of three measures.  60% of our grade comes from numerical scores assigned by our principal from classroom observations; 40% comes from the outcome of our students' performance on tests (20% each from two different sets of tests).  This year, my two blocks of twenty percentage points each came from my AP Biology exam results, and the total of my student's results on my in-class final exams.  So, here are my results:

I got 60/60 on classroom observations.  I got 20/20 on my AP Biology exam results, which is mystifying for two reasons: (1) the exam itself was a poorly-designed exercise in frustration, as I described in a previous blog post; and (2) three of my 27 students got a 2 on the exam, which is below the benchmark, so my score should have been knocked down a peg because of that.

I got a 10/20 on my in-class final exam results.

Why?  A combination of reasons.  The state, in their desperation to pretend that all outcomes are quantifiable, required that for the purposes of calculating our "teacher grade," the exit exam score had to be compared to a "pre-test."  My pre-test, in AP Biology, was the combination of the students' Regents (Introductory) Biology and Regents Chemistry final exams -- both markedly easier tests.  Every student in my class scored below their pre-test score on my rigorous, college-level final, so in the state's eyes it looks like the year they spent in my class actively made them stupider.

I also got graded down because of the three students in my elective who chose not to take the final exam.  You might ask yourself why the teacher should be blamed for a student's choice to skip the day of the final.  The state has a ready answer: "It is the teacher's responsibility to make certain that all students complete the requirements of the course."  (That's a direct quote, folks.)

So, my overall grade this year is a 90, which you'd think I'd be pretty pleased with.  Actually, I'm not, because my grade -- supposedly, a measure of my effectiveness as a teacher -- isn't a 90 at all.  What should it be, then?  Damned if I know.  We've combined three measurements to get that score that were all measuring different things, at different accuracies.

Remember error bars?

Were my classroom observation scores accurate?  I'd say so, and I'm not just saying that because I scored well.  The principal I work for is outstanding, and has a real sense of what good classroom teaching is.  Of the three measures, I'd say that this is the one I'm the most confident of.

How about the 40% that came from test scores?  Honestly, I'd say that number has a wobble factor of at least ten points either way.  In part, the test score outcomes are due to my effectiveness as a teacher; it'd be a sad state of affairs if how my students performed had nothing to do with me at all.  But are there other factors involved?

Of course.  On the plus side, there's the hard work the students put in.  Dedication to a class they've enjoyed.  Good study skills.  Raw intelligence.

On the minus side, there's poverty.  Cognitive disabilities.  Lack of parental support.  Bad attitude.  Frustration.  Laziness. 

To name a few.

So, really, how confident are you that my grade of 90 is actually a reflection of my effectiveness as a teacher?  Because that confidence can't be any higher than the least accurate measure that went into calculating it.

The funny thing is, this statistical concept is one that is taught in every Educational Statistics class in the world, and yet the powers-that-be in the State Department of Education have been completely unresponsive to claims that the way they're handling numbers is spurious.  Of course, I don't know why we should expect any different; the way they handle scaling final exams in New York state is also spurious, and they have feigned deafness to objections from teachers on that count, too.

As an example, on the state biology final, students have consistently needed to get 46% of the answers correct to score a scaled score of 65 [passing], while on the physics exam, the fraction of correct answers students need to score a 65 has varied from 59% to 67%.  Yes, that's correct; there have been years where exam scores in physics have been scaled downward.  When questioned about how this can possibly be fair, Carl Preske, Education Specialist at the New York State Department of Education, responded (this is a direct quote):

I promised myself that I would not join in any discussion of negative curve and the quality of the questions.  So much for promises, unless you personally have a degree in tests and measurements  I doubt that you have the expertise that the twenty teachers who have worked on each question.  Secondly if you lack a degree in psychometrics than [sic] comments on negative curves are useless. That being said,  each subject area established their own cut points for 65 and 85 more than 10 years ago: we (those constructing the physics exam) have the advantage of having a much larger number of difficult questions to place on each exam than does Chemistry  and with that greater number of difficult questions we are able to avoid what you prefer to call a negative.  Since we have about 20-25 questions above the 65 cut point we are able to stretch out the top 35 scaled credits,  Chemistry has between12 and 18 questions above the cut point over which they may scale the 35 credits.   If you wish to remove the "negative curve" than [sic] please find a way to generate 20 difficult questions to give to the test writing group each year.

Well, that was lucid.

So, we're basing teachers' scores on a combination of metrics based on the scaled scores of flawed tests.

Remember the idea of error being cumulative?  ("Your score is a 90!  ± 50 points!")

Now, you may be thinking, what real difference does a teacher's score make?  How can it be used against them?  My own opinion is that we are, country-wide, moving toward using teachers' end-of-the year scores for purposes of awarding (or revoking) tenure, job retention, and (ultimately) raises and salary.  None of that has happened yet.  But already, these scores are being considered reliable enough that they are being used as a criterion for the awarding grant money.  I just saw last week an offer of research grant money that was open to teachers -- but only if you were considered "Highly Effective," that is, you scored a 91 or higher for the year.

That's right, folks.  If I'd gotten one point higher, I would be able to apply for a four-year research grant worth $15,000/year.  But I'm only "Effective," not "Highly Effective," so there you are.

The whole thing is intensely frustrating, because it seems like all of the rank-and-file teachers grasp the problem with this immediately, and none of the higher-ups in the State Department of Education are even willing to admit that what they're doing is statistically invalid.  Their attitude seems to be that if it can be converted to numbers, it's real.  And if it's real, it can be converted to numbers.

Oh, and if it can be converted to numbers, it's valid.  Right?

Of course right.

Me, I'm just going to keep loping along doing what I've always done, teacher score be damned.  I told a colleague this year that I didn't care what I got as long as it was above a 65, because if I "failed" I'd have to do more paperwork, which makes me sound like one of my less-motivated students.  But I know that what I do in the classroom works; I know I'm effective.  Whether I got a 90, or a 100, or a 72, means absolutely nothing, neither in the statistical sense nor in any other sense.  What we do as teachers has an inherently unquantifiable aspect to it.  How can you measure students' excitement?  Or creativity?  Or the sense of wonder they get at learning about the world?  Or the moment that a kid decides, "I love this subject.  I want to spend the rest of my life doing this?"

But the b-b stackers in the state capitol don't, apparently, recognize any of that as valuable.  It's a good thing that most of us teachers still do.

Funeral march for HAARP and orchestra

In fiction, when an evil villain against whom you have fought long and hard is finally vanquished, you are generally depicted as being pretty happy about it.  When the Ring was destroyed and Sauron defeated, there was, as I remember, a great big ol' party afterwards.  The slaying of the Emperor, and the Death Star being blown to smithereens, was followed by a feast, complete with dancing Ewoks.  Even Jean-Luc Picard, not known for his effusive outbursts of emotion, stopped for celebratory cup of Earl Grey tea after the Borg cube self-destructed.

I find that in real life people don't react that way.

Last week it was announced that the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program, HAARP for short, was closing due to lack of funding.  HAARP, which journalist Sharon Weinberger calls "the Moby Dick of conspiracy theories," has been accused of almost everything evil you can imagine -- creating hurricanes, generating earthquakes, spawning tornadoes, triggering droughts (and floods), and even exerting direct-into-your-skull mind control over the innocent citizens of the U. S. of A.  So when Deborah Byrd, of EarthSky Science News, announced that HAARP was shutting down, you'd think there would be Great Rejoicing, right?

Here's a direct quote from Byrd's article:

The 35-acre ionospheric research facility in remote Gakona, Alaska – 200 miles north of Anchorage – shut down in early May 2013. HAARP has an antenna array used by scientists to study the outer atmosphere by zapping it with radio waves generated by 3,600 kilowatts of electricity. Not sure how, but HAARP became infamous among conspiracy theorists and some environmental activists, who believed it was responsible for intentional weather modification. Dire events – such as Hurricane Sandy in late 2012 – have been blamed on HAARP by people called “uninformed” by scientists and other commentators. But no more. HAARP’s program manager, Dr James Keeney, said in a July 15, 2013 press release: "Currently the site is abandoned. It comes down to money. We don’t have any...  If I actually could affect the weather, I'd keep it open."

"Ha!" you would think the conspiracy theorists would shout.  "The American people have finally triumphed!  HAARP is no more!"

Nope.  You should read the comments on Byrd's article.  The conspiracy theorists are pissed.  They also don't believe she's telling the truth, so they're really pissed.  Here's a sampler, in case you don't want to risk valuable cells in your prefrontal cortex reading through them all.  You'll just have to believe me that spelling and grammar have been left as-written, because I didn't want to write "sic" 548 times.

This is the facility for the public to see. The real HAARP culprit is in Gakona, Alaska. Does anybody know if that facility is shut down. I don't think so. It's like we have two space program. NASA and the military. The military is functioning real well unlike NASA which is a shell of its former self.

READ: According to Keeney’s press release, the only bright spot on HAARP’s  horizon right now is that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is expected on site as a client to finish up some research in fall 2013 and winter 2014. DARPA has nearly $8.8 million in its FY 14 budget plan to research:

there are MULTIPLE facilities, not just Alaska!! Stationed GLOBALLY.

most scientists deny obvious Facts all the time.
most scientists are afraid to "loose credibility" if they dont repeat the nonsense they had to learn to graduate...
most scientists forget to try to disprove their own Thesis.

There is no right or wrong, just people who want to believe it's all A OK and those who suspect that it's not.

the moon is waxing to waning in a single night,doubt it,look at 3 hour intervals top lit at rise bottom lit at set,this isnt caused by cow farts .stop being stupid for a minute and think about it,,why is the moon flipping a 180 each night,it is the earth tilting on axis nightly,,face N mark spot u stand.then find earth bound 2nd optic reference and then the big dipper,,dipper N. of Polaris"N star as earth rotates always to the left big dipper north of N star should be moving W-E,,as the stars S of Polaris move E-W,,the big dipper and Polaris and the rest of the star field clearly dip ofer 70 degrees west moving against the normal ball like star pattern,our axis is being pulled 70 degrees a night or more,this is easily seen with your own eyes,,why dont you wake up and see the signs in the sun the moon and the stars

I speculate that the reason for all of this angst over HAARP's imminent demise is partly because in order to believe that HAARP is being shut down from lack of funding, you have to accept that it must not have been that important to the government in the first place.  If they really had developed the ability to create earthquakes, hurricanes, et al., do you think that the powers-that-be would have just... given up?  To accept this press release as true, the conspiracy theorists would have to do something unimaginable:

Admit that they have been wrong all along.

No way can they do that.  It's too big a revision of their worldview.  So the press release is an outright lie.  Or the facility is being relocated elsewhere, because too many non-sheeple figured out what they were up to.  Or the government has moved on to even more evil things, like making the moon flip over once a night.  (Can anyone tell me what the hell that guy was actually trying to say?)

So, they'd much rather believe that the Enemy is still out there, and still ultra-powerful, rather than settle in and enjoy their victory.  It reminds me of the line from C. S. Lewis' That Hideous Strength, in which Lord Feverstone implies that the college bureaucrat Curry actually likes having obstructionists to complain about: "'Damn it all,' continued Feverstone, 'no man likes to have his stock-in-trade taken away. What would poor Curry do if the Die-hards one day all refused to do any die-harding?'"

In any case, I don't think there is going to be any celebrating tonight.  No party, no Ewoks, not even a nice cup of Earl Grey tea.  Because, you know... you can never let down your guard.  Not even for a moment.

It will be interesting, though, to see what they turn their attention to next.  It's probably too much to hope for that it will be something that actually has a basis in fact.