As I mentioned earlier this week in my post about the "Majestic 12" conspiracy, once you've fallen down the rabbit hole of seeing conspiracies everywhere, there's no getting out. Anyone who doesn't see the pattern is a dupe; anyone who tries to argue you out of believing it is a shill, or worse yet...
... one of the conspirators.
And the power of a conspiracy theory seems completely unrelated to its plausibility. After all, we still have people believing that HAARP is creating hurricanes and tornadoes and blizzards and earthquakes, despite the fact that (1) it was shut down completely two years ago, (2) it never could do that stuff in the first place, and (3) if it could have done that stuff, there's no way in hell the government would have shut it down.
But logic doesn't stop people from yammering on as if what they were saying made sense. Which is why a tweet a week ago about Outback Steak House having ties to the Illuminati has gone viral.
It all started with Twitter user @eatmyaesthetics, who noticed that if you mapped out the positions of five Outback Steak House in various cities, you could connect them with lines to form a pentagram -- a five-pointed star. Of course, the emphasis here was on the sinister connotations of this symbol, especially when it's upside-down, which it was if you turned the map the right way.
Then the retweet machine got started, and within short order the tweet had been reposted tens of thousands of times. Undoubtedly some of the people who retweeted it did so because of the humor value, but some of them evidently believed that @eatmyaesthetics was on to something, because people started mapping out the positions Outback in their own cities, and lo and behold, found the same scary pattern.
Then Lauren Evans over at Jezebel threw her two cents' worth into the mix, saying, "Now that I know the truth, it's impossible to see it any other way. And you don't get a ten-ounce steak for twelve dollars without at least a little help from the devil."
Which was tongue-in-cheek. I think.
Then Outback itself got involved, first stating that that their official position was that they "neither would confirm nor deny" Illuminati involvement in their restaurants, following it up with a tweet that "If the Bloomin' Onion is evil, then we don't want to be good." They added a winky-face emoji after the tweet, which could alternately be interpreted as "we're kidding, of course" or "we are an evil agency allied with the Forces of Darkness to engage in mind control via drugs sprinkled on your medium-rare ribeye steak."
All of which induced multiple orgasms in the conspiracy theory world.
But here's the thing, of course; what shape did they expect you'd get by connecting five dots with lines? Here's an experiment I want you to run: get a sheet of paper, and draw five dots on it. The only requirement is that no three of the dots can be in a straight line. See if you can find a configuration of dots that you can't inscribe with a pentagram.
Go ahead, I'll wait.
So this isn't so much a conspiracy theory as it is a test to detect who failed 10th-grade geometry. In fact, any business that has more than five locations in a city can be connected with at least a reasonably recognizable pentagram. So if Outback is an arm of the Illuminati, then so are McDonald's, Dairy Queen, and Taco Bell.
Although now that I come to think of it, I've been suspicious about Taco Bell myself for a while.
So as usual, we've got a case of what Michael Shermer calls "You can't miss it when I tell you what's there." The upshot is that if you like Outback, you don't have to worry that part of the money you spend for dinner is going to support the New World Order. Your biggest concern is that there have been people whose arteries have clogged up just looking at "Bloomin' Onions," but I doubt seriously whether that has anything to do with the Illuminati.
Skeptophilia (skep-to-fil-i-a) (n.) - the love of logical thought, skepticism, and thinking critically. Being an exploration of the applications of skeptical thinking to the world at large, with periodic excursions into linguistics, music, politics, cryptozoology, and why people keep seeing the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches.
Thursday, August 3, 2017
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
Our alien ancestors
A friend and long-time faithful reader of Skeptophilia sent me a link a few days ago to a webpage entitled, "Expert Says Humans Are Aliens -- and We Were Brought to Earth Hundreds of Thousands of Years Ago."
Now, I hasten to state for the record that this friend didn't send me this because she believes it; she clearly sent me this so I would do a faceplant on my desk so hard that it would leave a comical impression of my computer keyboard on my forehead for the rest of the day. But I have to admit it starts out with a good question, to wit: "What if Humans are the aliens we've been looking for all along?"
To which I would answer: "What if C-A-T spelled 'dog'?" Even if you were to entertain seriously the possibility that the ancestors of today's humans were dropped off here from another planet, which I am not for a moment suggesting you should, there's the pesky little problem of human DNA showing 70-80% homology with that of other mammal species, presuming of course that those species didn't come from other planets, too.
I mean, I'm a little suspicious about platypuses, myself, because it's hard to imagine how evolution would produce something so completely ridiculous looking. It's not so hard to believe that aliens deposited platypuses in Australia as some kind of bizarre prank, and we humans just haven't gotten the joke yet.
But I digress.
So we're off to a rocky start, but it gets worse. The author goes on to describe how the development of written communication is an indication that we're different from other species, and the only possible reason for this is that we're aliens. But the problem is that you can do this with damn near any species on Earth. For example: the archer fish of Southeast Asia has evolved the ability to spit water at insects on overhanging leaves and branches, to knock them into the water, whereupon the archer fish has dinner. To my knowledge, no other animal can do this.
Does this mean the archer fish is also an alien?
Argument #2 goes something like, "Humans can't be evolved from other terrestrial life forms, because if you took a typical human and put him/her in the jungle, in short order (s)he would become jaguar chow, if (s)he didn't starve to death first." But again, consider other earthly species; of course if you stick some unlucky individual into an environment that's hostile, or radically different from where it evolved, it's gonna die. I'm guessing if you took a spider monkey and put it on the coast of Greenland, you would very quickly have a monkeysicle. But that doesn't mean that monkeys aren't from the Planet Earth; it just means they're not from Greenland.
Oh, and then there's the argument that since we can't look at the sun directly without hurting our eyes, we must be from a planet where the sun is dimmer, or it's cloudy all the time.
For fuck's sake.
Then the "expert" gets on board, in the person of Dr. Ellis Silver, who has written a book called Humans Are Not From Earth: A Scientific Evaluation of the Evidence. The first thing I did was to look up Dr. Silver's book on Amazon, and I found it had received 115 reviews, which follow the usual horseshoe-shaped distribution typical of wacko ideas; lots of 5s, lots of 1s, and not a hell of a lot in between. In other words, either you're a true believer or a doubter right from the outset, and the book itself didn't make any difference to either group. Here is a sampler of the reviews:
Now, I hasten to state for the record that this friend didn't send me this because she believes it; she clearly sent me this so I would do a faceplant on my desk so hard that it would leave a comical impression of my computer keyboard on my forehead for the rest of the day. But I have to admit it starts out with a good question, to wit: "What if Humans are the aliens we've been looking for all along?"
To which I would answer: "What if C-A-T spelled 'dog'?" Even if you were to entertain seriously the possibility that the ancestors of today's humans were dropped off here from another planet, which I am not for a moment suggesting you should, there's the pesky little problem of human DNA showing 70-80% homology with that of other mammal species, presuming of course that those species didn't come from other planets, too.
I mean, I'm a little suspicious about platypuses, myself, because it's hard to imagine how evolution would produce something so completely ridiculous looking. It's not so hard to believe that aliens deposited platypuses in Australia as some kind of bizarre prank, and we humans just haven't gotten the joke yet.
But I digress.
So we're off to a rocky start, but it gets worse. The author goes on to describe how the development of written communication is an indication that we're different from other species, and the only possible reason for this is that we're aliens. But the problem is that you can do this with damn near any species on Earth. For example: the archer fish of Southeast Asia has evolved the ability to spit water at insects on overhanging leaves and branches, to knock them into the water, whereupon the archer fish has dinner. To my knowledge, no other animal can do this.
Does this mean the archer fish is also an alien?
Argument #2 goes something like, "Humans can't be evolved from other terrestrial life forms, because if you took a typical human and put him/her in the jungle, in short order (s)he would become jaguar chow, if (s)he didn't starve to death first." But again, consider other earthly species; of course if you stick some unlucky individual into an environment that's hostile, or radically different from where it evolved, it's gonna die. I'm guessing if you took a spider monkey and put it on the coast of Greenland, you would very quickly have a monkeysicle. But that doesn't mean that monkeys aren't from the Planet Earth; it just means they're not from Greenland.
Oh, and then there's the argument that since we can't look at the sun directly without hurting our eyes, we must be from a planet where the sun is dimmer, or it's cloudy all the time.
For fuck's sake.
A photograph of my Cousin Fred, taken at last year's family reunion on the planet Gzork. I told him to smile, but this is the best he could do. [image courtesy of the Wikimedia Commons]
- [T]here is not a shred of logic, science, empricism, or plausibility in this book. It is SO bad that I'm almost inclined to think it's a hoax.
- This author seems to have no understanding of either evolution or the scientific method. On the bright side, whenever I go outside now and find myself squinting at the sun, I take comfort in the notion that on my home planet it's always cloudy.
- If you're thinking of buying this book save yourself the time and money and don't. More evidence to support my opinion: study the book cover for a few moments and tell me it wasn't made up in MS Paint in 2 minutes.
- The author really should take a couple anthropology classes at a community college.
So not exactly ringing endorsements. The author then goes on to cite a different "expert," one Robert Sepehr, who has written his own book (of course), this one called Species With Amnesia: Our Forbidden History. So of course I had to check that one out. The basic idea here is apparently that the Rh-negative blood type allele is weird, therefore we have to be the descendants of technologically advanced aliens who have forgotten where we came from and are now in the process of reinventing everything our ancestors knew. Which, I think we can all agree, is what lawyers call an "air-tight argument."
Only one review for Sepehr's book stood out:
- [T]his author is obviously creating multiple Amazon accounts to leave favorable rankings and reviews on his books. Click on the hyperlinks of the names of the people leaving five star reviews; all of them have left reviews on Sepehr's books only, all 5-star, and most left on the same day! The author's credentials seem nonexistent, and with 5 minutes of research I could plainly see that the majority of praise for his work online is fake.
So there's that.
On the other hand, my mother was Rh-negative, meaning she has not just one, but two Rh-negative alleles, so she's alien on both sides of her family.
Which, now that I think about it, explains a great deal about my mother's relatives.
In any case, the whole thing seems to be a non-starter, which is kind of a shame. I'd love nothing better than to discover that I'm an alien, especially if it meant that at some point my extraterrestrial cousins would whoosh down on their hyper-light-speed spaceship and pick me up to return to our home world, light years away from Donald Trump. But I suppose that's too much to hope for, even if I do have at least some Rh-negative alien DNA.
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
Majestic 12, anachronistic typeset, and Cigarette-Smoking Man
A friend and loyal reader of Skeptophilia said, "You haven't yet written about my favorite conspiracy theory -- Majestic 12." There was a brief moment in which I wondered whether "Majestic 12" might be some kind of sequel to Ocean's Eleven, but then I realized that they've already done that (they're up to what, now, Ocean's Seventeen, or something?), so it had to be something else.
It turns out that Majestic 12 is a code name, which makes it cool right from the get-go. The story is that during the presidency of Harry Truman, a secret committee of scientists, military leaders, and government officials was formed in order to investigate the Roswell incident and to keep tabs on the aliens. Since that time, thousands of pages' worth of documents have been "leaked" from this alleged committee, most of them dealing with covert operations by the CIA, and giving highly oblique references to UFO sightings. A few of the documents have hinted at darker doings -- alliances with evil aliens, and a secret intent to use technology of extraterrestrial provenance to further our military goals and monitor our enemies.
The original members of Majestic 12 were allegedly the following prominent individuals:
Oh, wait, the last one was fictional. Silly me. The problem is, so are the documents. The FBI has done a thorough investigation of the various Majestic 12 files, and declared them "completely bogus." Of course, they would say that, claim the conspiracy theorists; the government's response is always "deny, deny, deny." However, there have been independent studies done, by reasonably objective and disinterested parties (for example, Philip J. Klass, noted UFO skeptic and debunker), and virtually all of them think that the whole thing is a hoax -- probably perpetrated by Stanton Friedman, William Moore, and Jaime Shandera, three UFOlogists who are more-or-less obsessed with the Roswell Incident. In fact, Moore and Shandera were actually the recipients of some of the Majestic 12 documents -- sent to them by an "anonymous source high up in the government."
How did the skeptics come to the conclusion that the whole thing was a hoax? One of the main pieces of evidence was the simple, pragmatic matter of how the documents were typed. In many cases, it's possible to date a document simply by looking at the font, spacing, and ink -- these changed with fair regularity, and even a discrepancy of a couple of years can be enough to prove a document to be fake. In the case of a number of the Majestic 12 documents, there were font changes and space-justification that were impossible in the late 1940s and 1950s -- the first typewriter capable of this was invented in 1961.
An amusing sidebar: when Philip Klass was investigating the Majestic 12 claim, he offered $1000 to anyone who could produce government documents that had typefaces matching the ones found in the Majestic 12 papers. Who popped up to claim the prize? None other than Stanton Friedman, prime suspect as the chief engineer of the hoax. As skeptic Brian Dunning wrote, "Don't take the bait if you don't want to be hooked."
One of the frustrations with debunking conspiracy theories, though, is that once someone believes that a conspiracy exists, there always is a way to argue away the evidence. One of the most popular ones is argument from ignorance -- we don't know what the government was doing back then, so they could have been doing anything. As for the typewriters -- oh, sure, the first typewriter capable of justification (the IBM 72) was released to the public in 1961, but maybe the Big Secret Government Circles had access to it fourteen years earlier. Who knows? (And by "who knows?", of course what they mean is "we do.")
And as far as my aforementioned "objective and disinterested" investigators -- in the conspiracy theorists' minds, there is no such thing as an objectivity. Anyone who argues against the theory at hand is either a dupe, or else a de facto member of the conspiracy. Between this and the argument from ignorance, there is no way to win.
But wait, you may be saying; what if the government was engaged in covert nasty stuff? How would you know, given that the government would certainly deny their involvement, claim it was a hoax? Well, first, I'm sure that the government is, in fact, engaged in covert nasty stuff. I just don't think this is it. We fall back on Ockham's Razor yet again -- what is the simplest explanation that adequately accounts for all of the known facts?
So, anyway, I think we can safely say that the Majestic 12 papers are fakes. Which is, no doubt, exactly what Cigarette-Smoking Man wants us to think, and will make him smile in that skeevy way of his, and walk off into the night until the next episode.
It turns out that Majestic 12 is a code name, which makes it cool right from the get-go. The story is that during the presidency of Harry Truman, a secret committee of scientists, military leaders, and government officials was formed in order to investigate the Roswell incident and to keep tabs on the aliens. Since that time, thousands of pages' worth of documents have been "leaked" from this alleged committee, most of them dealing with covert operations by the CIA, and giving highly oblique references to UFO sightings. A few of the documents have hinted at darker doings -- alliances with evil aliens, and a secret intent to use technology of extraterrestrial provenance to further our military goals and monitor our enemies.
The original members of Majestic 12 were allegedly the following prominent individuals:
- Roscoe Hillenkoetter (first director of the CIA)
- Vannevar Bush (president of the Carnegie Institute, amongst many other titles)
- James Forrestal (Secretary of the Navy)
- Nathan Twining (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff)
- Hoyt Vandenberg (Air Force Chief of Staff)
- Robert Montague (Commander of Fort Bliss)
- Jerome Hunsaker (aeronautics engineer at MIT)
- Sidney Souers (first executive secretary of the National Security Council)
- Gordon Gray (Secretary of the Army)
- Donald Menzel (astronomer at Harvard)
- Detlev Bronk (chair of the National Academy of Sciences)
- Lloyd Berkner (prominent physicist)
Oh, wait, the last one was fictional. Silly me. The problem is, so are the documents. The FBI has done a thorough investigation of the various Majestic 12 files, and declared them "completely bogus." Of course, they would say that, claim the conspiracy theorists; the government's response is always "deny, deny, deny." However, there have been independent studies done, by reasonably objective and disinterested parties (for example, Philip J. Klass, noted UFO skeptic and debunker), and virtually all of them think that the whole thing is a hoax -- probably perpetrated by Stanton Friedman, William Moore, and Jaime Shandera, three UFOlogists who are more-or-less obsessed with the Roswell Incident. In fact, Moore and Shandera were actually the recipients of some of the Majestic 12 documents -- sent to them by an "anonymous source high up in the government."
How did the skeptics come to the conclusion that the whole thing was a hoax? One of the main pieces of evidence was the simple, pragmatic matter of how the documents were typed. In many cases, it's possible to date a document simply by looking at the font, spacing, and ink -- these changed with fair regularity, and even a discrepancy of a couple of years can be enough to prove a document to be fake. In the case of a number of the Majestic 12 documents, there were font changes and space-justification that were impossible in the late 1940s and 1950s -- the first typewriter capable of this was invented in 1961.
An amusing sidebar: when Philip Klass was investigating the Majestic 12 claim, he offered $1000 to anyone who could produce government documents that had typefaces matching the ones found in the Majestic 12 papers. Who popped up to claim the prize? None other than Stanton Friedman, prime suspect as the chief engineer of the hoax. As skeptic Brian Dunning wrote, "Don't take the bait if you don't want to be hooked."
One of the frustrations with debunking conspiracy theories, though, is that once someone believes that a conspiracy exists, there always is a way to argue away the evidence. One of the most popular ones is argument from ignorance -- we don't know what the government was doing back then, so they could have been doing anything. As for the typewriters -- oh, sure, the first typewriter capable of justification (the IBM 72) was released to the public in 1961, but maybe the Big Secret Government Circles had access to it fourteen years earlier. Who knows? (And by "who knows?", of course what they mean is "we do.")
And as far as my aforementioned "objective and disinterested" investigators -- in the conspiracy theorists' minds, there is no such thing as an objectivity. Anyone who argues against the theory at hand is either a dupe, or else a de facto member of the conspiracy. Between this and the argument from ignorance, there is no way to win.
But wait, you may be saying; what if the government was engaged in covert nasty stuff? How would you know, given that the government would certainly deny their involvement, claim it was a hoax? Well, first, I'm sure that the government is, in fact, engaged in covert nasty stuff. I just don't think this is it. We fall back on Ockham's Razor yet again -- what is the simplest explanation that adequately accounts for all of the known facts?
So, anyway, I think we can safely say that the Majestic 12 papers are fakes. Which is, no doubt, exactly what Cigarette-Smoking Man wants us to think, and will make him smile in that skeevy way of his, and walk off into the night until the next episode.
Monday, July 31, 2017
The strange case of the glow-in-the-dark pterodactyl
In the past week, I've written about a few cases for which an application of the sharp edge of Ockham's Razor would be advisable -- such as claiming that clouds are produced by UFOs as camouflage, deciding that the common perception of having less time to do stuff is because time itself is actually speeding up, and warning people about the pleasures and possible hazards of "astral sex."
There should be a name for the opposite of Ockham's Razor, shouldn't there? Taking the available evidence, giving it careful consideration, and then running right off the cliff with it -- coming up with the weirdest, most convoluted, most difficult-to-swallow explanation you can.
Take the recent case of the the strange observations of a flying creature reported by a woman in Pennsylvania. She states that she saw a "strange glowing thing at night" that flew over her car while she was driving. It was "quite large," she said, and "was not too terribly high off the ground;" and "(it) seemed to be lit, or glowing."
Okay, that's the evidence; one woman's claim of a strange sighting. From this, what hypotheses can we devise?
On second thought, there is a name for the opposite of Ockham's Razor; it's called confirmation bias -- the acceptance of minuscule pieces of evidence to support a theory you already had decided was true. It's why believers in astrology will crow about the one newspaper horoscope a year that happens to be reasonably accurate, and ignore all the ones that aren't; it's why the religious will proclaim it a miracle when the ill person they prayed for got better, and ignore all the people who were prayed for and died in horrible agony. Maybe at this point I should tell you the website the glowing pterodactyl story appeared on.
It's called LivePterosaur.
Yup, there's an entire website devoted to the idea that pteranodons and other pterodactyloids have survived through the millions of years since the last fossil evidence, conveniently leaving not a trace behind in all of the geologic strata from the intervening eras, and now are gliding their way over the wilds of Pennsylvania. A lot of the evidence, if you can call it that, comes from native legends, just as the totality of the "evidence" for Mokele-Mbembe and the Bunyip being dinosaur survivals comes from tales from the natives of central Africa and Australia, respectively. The pterodactyl legend is apparently especially to be found in Papua New Guinea, where a flying creature called the "Ropen" supposedly haunts the rain forest; but there's the "Wawanar" of western Australia and the "Kongamato" of Africa, and also an unnamed sighting in Cuba where it presumably was called the "holy mother of god what the fuck is that thing?", only in Spanish.
Did these people actually see something strange? Could be. There are plenty of big birds around; in the tropics, we also have fruit bats, one group of which (the "flying foxes" of the genus Pteropus) can have a wingspan of five feet. Could they have been lying? Drunk? Crazy? Sure. Could it just be a story, and no more true than tales of unicorns and dragons? Sure. And I think any of those is more likely than it being a pterodactyl.
Now, don't mistake me; no one would think it was cooler than I would if it turned out that some kind of pterodactyloid actually had survived all these years. In fact, the pterodactyloids are somewhere in my top five favorite categories of extinct animal. I'm also fully aware of the times that it's turned out that something has made it to the present day, after years of only being known from the fossil record. (The most famous being the coelacanth, the prehistoric lobe-finned fish that turned out not to be so prehistoric after all.) I just don't think that it's all that likely that somehow a giant bioluminescent pterodactyl is gliding around in the woods of Pennsylvania, and has escaped all notice of the biologists until now. It's slightly more likely that one could live in the forests of Papua New Guinea, or central Africa, given the remoteness, dense woods, and low population density; but only slightly. The likelihood of it being a tall tale is orders of magnitude greater.
So, sorry to be a party-pooper, but I really do think that the lady in Pennsylvania saw a barn owl. Or else should be more careful to take her medication regularly. Whatever it was she saw, I'd be willing to bet a significant amount of money that it wasn't a glow-in-the-dark pterodactyl.
There should be a name for the opposite of Ockham's Razor, shouldn't there? Taking the available evidence, giving it careful consideration, and then running right off the cliff with it -- coming up with the weirdest, most convoluted, most difficult-to-swallow explanation you can.
Take the recent case of the the strange observations of a flying creature reported by a woman in Pennsylvania. She states that she saw a "strange glowing thing at night" that flew over her car while she was driving. It was "quite large," she said, and "was not too terribly high off the ground;" and "(it) seemed to be lit, or glowing."
Okay, that's the evidence; one woman's claim of a strange sighting. From this, what hypotheses can we devise?
- She saw an ordinary flying creature -- possibly a barn owl, whose silent flight and all-white underside could easily trick the eye into thinking that it was a glowing creature in the air.
- She was making up the story for her own reasons, possibly for the attention or because she likes to tell weird stories -- i.e., she was lying.
- She's a wingnut.
- She saw a glow-in-the-dark pterodactyl.
[image courtesy of the Wikimedia Commons]
On second thought, there is a name for the opposite of Ockham's Razor; it's called confirmation bias -- the acceptance of minuscule pieces of evidence to support a theory you already had decided was true. It's why believers in astrology will crow about the one newspaper horoscope a year that happens to be reasonably accurate, and ignore all the ones that aren't; it's why the religious will proclaim it a miracle when the ill person they prayed for got better, and ignore all the people who were prayed for and died in horrible agony. Maybe at this point I should tell you the website the glowing pterodactyl story appeared on.
It's called LivePterosaur.
Yup, there's an entire website devoted to the idea that pteranodons and other pterodactyloids have survived through the millions of years since the last fossil evidence, conveniently leaving not a trace behind in all of the geologic strata from the intervening eras, and now are gliding their way over the wilds of Pennsylvania. A lot of the evidence, if you can call it that, comes from native legends, just as the totality of the "evidence" for Mokele-Mbembe and the Bunyip being dinosaur survivals comes from tales from the natives of central Africa and Australia, respectively. The pterodactyl legend is apparently especially to be found in Papua New Guinea, where a flying creature called the "Ropen" supposedly haunts the rain forest; but there's the "Wawanar" of western Australia and the "Kongamato" of Africa, and also an unnamed sighting in Cuba where it presumably was called the "holy mother of god what the fuck is that thing?", only in Spanish.
Did these people actually see something strange? Could be. There are plenty of big birds around; in the tropics, we also have fruit bats, one group of which (the "flying foxes" of the genus Pteropus) can have a wingspan of five feet. Could they have been lying? Drunk? Crazy? Sure. Could it just be a story, and no more true than tales of unicorns and dragons? Sure. And I think any of those is more likely than it being a pterodactyl.
Now, don't mistake me; no one would think it was cooler than I would if it turned out that some kind of pterodactyloid actually had survived all these years. In fact, the pterodactyloids are somewhere in my top five favorite categories of extinct animal. I'm also fully aware of the times that it's turned out that something has made it to the present day, after years of only being known from the fossil record. (The most famous being the coelacanth, the prehistoric lobe-finned fish that turned out not to be so prehistoric after all.) I just don't think that it's all that likely that somehow a giant bioluminescent pterodactyl is gliding around in the woods of Pennsylvania, and has escaped all notice of the biologists until now. It's slightly more likely that one could live in the forests of Papua New Guinea, or central Africa, given the remoteness, dense woods, and low population density; but only slightly. The likelihood of it being a tall tale is orders of magnitude greater.
So, sorry to be a party-pooper, but I really do think that the lady in Pennsylvania saw a barn owl. Or else should be more careful to take her medication regularly. Whatever it was she saw, I'd be willing to bet a significant amount of money that it wasn't a glow-in-the-dark pterodactyl.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Picture perfect
Neil deGrasse Tyson once quipped that photographic evidence was no longer reliable because Photoshop probably had an "Add UFO" button. It's an exercise I like to demonstrate with my Critical Thinking class; after watching a documentary about fake ghost photographs, they have an optional assignment to try to create the most realistic-looking and/or scary UFO, ghost, or other paranormal photograph they can.
The results are so creepy -- and so easy to make, if you have access even to rudimentary digital image modification software -- that the wall of photographs we display afterwards makes a real impact.
"I'll never believe a photograph is real again," one student said in an awed voice while looking at the collection of ghosts, spacecrafts, and Bigfoots.
While that is honestly a bit of an overreaction, it's always best to be on the suspicious side whenever anyone claims a photograph as proof for a claim. Not only are altered images easy to make -- as a paper just released last week in Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications shows, humans are kind of lousy at differentiated between retouched and unretouched photos.
In "Can People Identify Original and Manipulated Photos of Real-World Scenes?", authors Sophie J. Nightingale, Kimberley A. Wade, and Derrick G. Watson set up a series of tests in which subjects were asked if they could detect digitally-altered photographs that had impossibilities -- shadows pointing the wrong way, geometrical inconsistencies, features missing (such as removing the crosswise structural supports from a suspension bridge) or added (such as tables with extra legs). They were given ten photographs, some altered and some not, and as much time as they wanted to study them, and then were asked to identify which (if any) had been manipulated, and if so, how.
And people, in general, were terrible at it. The authors write:
And the more sophisticated the digital manipulation software gets, the worse this problem will become. Early digital photography programs were nothing short of crude, and attempts to mess around with the image always left traces that a discerning eye could see. But now? It's telling that a bunch of inexperienced high school students could, in short order, produce images that were absolutely convincing.
Think of how much could be done by people who were experts in digital image modification.
So we might well be approaching the "Trust Nothing" stance of my student from last year. I hate to promote cynicism, but honestly, casting a wry eye on any photographic evidence is probably a smart thing place to start. We're not quite at the point of having an "Add UFO" button -- but it's not far away.
The results are so creepy -- and so easy to make, if you have access even to rudimentary digital image modification software -- that the wall of photographs we display afterwards makes a real impact.
"I'll never believe a photograph is real again," one student said in an awed voice while looking at the collection of ghosts, spacecrafts, and Bigfoots.
Mont St. Michel is beautiful, isn't it? Yes, but the water and the reflection were all added to the image via Photoshop. [image courtesy of photographer Andrés Nieto Porras and the Wikimedia Commons]
In "Can People Identify Original and Manipulated Photos of Real-World Scenes?", authors Sophie J. Nightingale, Kimberley A. Wade, and Derrick G. Watson set up a series of tests in which subjects were asked if they could detect digitally-altered photographs that had impossibilities -- shadows pointing the wrong way, geometrical inconsistencies, features missing (such as removing the crosswise structural supports from a suspension bridge) or added (such as tables with extra legs). They were given ten photographs, some altered and some not, and as much time as they wanted to study them, and then were asked to identify which (if any) had been manipulated, and if so, how.
And people, in general, were terrible at it. The authors write:
In two separate experiments we have shown, for the first time, that people’s ability to detect manipulated photos of real-world scenes is extremely limited. Considering the prevalence of manipulated images in the media, on social networking sites, and in other domains, our findings warrant concern about the extent to which people may be frequently fooled in their daily lives. Furthermore, we did not find any strong evidence to suggest that individual factors, such as having an interest in photography or beliefs about the extent of image manipulation in society, are associated with improved ability to detect or locate manipulations.
Recall that we looked at two categories of manipulations—implausible and plausible—and we predicted that people would perform better on implausible manipulations because these scenes provide additional evidence that people can use to determine if a photo has been manipulated. Yet the story was not so simple... [E]ven when subjects correctly identified the implausible photo manipulations, they did not necessarily go on to accurately locate the manipulation. It is clear that people find it difficult to detect and locate manipulations in real-world photos, regardless of whether those manipulations lead to physically plausible or implausible scenes.Which, of course, should be enough to give anyone pause. Our capacity for recognizing when we've been fooled is far poorer than we tend to believe.
And the more sophisticated the digital manipulation software gets, the worse this problem will become. Early digital photography programs were nothing short of crude, and attempts to mess around with the image always left traces that a discerning eye could see. But now? It's telling that a bunch of inexperienced high school students could, in short order, produce images that were absolutely convincing.
Think of how much could be done by people who were experts in digital image modification.
There's even an iPhone app that adds six-pack abs and broader shoulders to your photo. Wouldn't it be nice if it were this easy in real life?
Friday, July 28, 2017
Silence is golden
A while back my cousin Carla from New Mexico brought to my attention a paranormal phenomenon I had never heard of before. Carla's husband Dan is a geography professor at New Mexico State University, and the three of us basically have the same approach to the paranormal; namely to discuss it with grave expressions, drawing up maps, passing back and forth grainy, blurred photographs of ghosts, UFOs, and sasquatches ("sasquatchi?" "sasquatchim?" There's got to be a more entertaining plural than "sasquatches"), and examining evidence of Ancient Astronauts Visiting the Earth. Then we all burst into guffaws because we just can't take it any more.
In any case, Dan (code name: Dr. Monsoon Havoc, B.S., M.S., Ph.D., President, and Director of the Department of Multi-Dimensional Topography) and Carla (code name: Cria Havoc, Vice President, and Director of the Department of Hermetics, Hermeneutics, and Historiography) kindly inducted me two years ago into their organization, ISNOT (Institute for the Study of Non-Objective Theories). (My code name: Gordon "Whirlwind" McTeague, Director of the Department of Exobiology and Cryptozoology, a.k.a. "The Blond Yeti"). Since then, it's been one adventure after another, as we investigated reports of El Chupacabra, the Connecticut Hill Monster (the upstate New York cousin of Bigfoot), and various sightings of the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches. But now... now, we have a serious matter to look into.
Carla/Cria sent me a link with information about a place called the Zone of Silence. This spot, located about 400 miles from El Paso, Texas, and near the point where the borders of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Chihuahua, and Durango meet, has a lot of the same characteristics as the Bermuda Triangle. Within this area, "radio and TV signals... are gobbled up," "strange lights or fireballs (maneuver) at night, changing colors, hanging motionless and then taking off at great speed," and there are falls of "small metallic balls... known locally as guÃjolas," which are "collected by locals and visitors alike, and treated with great reverence."
My thought on this last part is that if you are the sort of person who might be tempted to treat a small metallic ball with great reverence, you probably should not be allowed to wander about in the desert unaccompanied.
But I digress.
One difference between this place and the Bermuda Triangle is that being dry land (extremely dry, in this case), the Zone of Silence can also host honest-to-Fox-Mulder Close Encounters of the Third Kind. There have been several reports of meetings with "tall, blond individuals," who spoke flawless Spanish "with a musical ring." In one case, they were wearing yellow raincoats, and helped some lost travelers whose car was stuck in the mud during one of the area's infrequent, but torrential, downpours. This is encouraging; most of the other aliens I've heard of seem more interested in evil pastimes, such as infiltrating world governments, dissecting livestock, and placing computer chips in the heads of abducted earthlings, after the obligatory horrifying medical exam on board the spacecraft, about which we will say no more out of respect for the more sensitive members of the studio audience. Myself, I find reports of helpful aliens distinctly encouraging, and hope you won't think me self-serving if I just mention briefly that if there are any like-minded aliens visiting upstate New York soon, I could sure use a hand cleaning my gutters.
Of course, my more scientific readers will be asking themselves why, exactly, is this spot a "zone of silence?" Answers vary, as you might expect. One explanation I've seen proffered is the presence of uranium ore in nearby mountains (because diffuse deposits of radioactive ores clearly attract aliens, cause small metal balls to fall from the sky, and interfere with radio signals). Another is that this spot represents a "concentration of earth energies." Whatever the fuck that means. It is also claimed that there is an "astronomical observatory thousands of years old... a Mexican Stonehenge" in the area. Well, that's enough for me! Uranium ore + "concentration of earth energies" + anything that can be compared to Stonehenge = some serious shit! ISNOT is on it! Mobilize the troops!
Well, not really. Sadly, we're not able to mobilize in this direction at the present time. The disappointing fact is that given the current state of affairs in northern Mexico, it's not all that appealing to go down and visit the place. I mean, tall blond aliens with yellow rain slickers are one thing; dodging bullets from members of mutually hostile drug cartels is quite another. I think the field work will have to wait until things calm down a little.
Until then, however, keep your eyes open for any other Non-Objective phenomena that may pop up -- we have three highly trained professionals here at ISNOT who are ready to investigate. I'll post further research notes here. You'll be the first to know.
In any case, Dan (code name: Dr. Monsoon Havoc, B.S., M.S., Ph.D., President, and Director of the Department of Multi-Dimensional Topography) and Carla (code name: Cria Havoc, Vice President, and Director of the Department of Hermetics, Hermeneutics, and Historiography) kindly inducted me two years ago into their organization, ISNOT (Institute for the Study of Non-Objective Theories). (My code name: Gordon "Whirlwind" McTeague, Director of the Department of Exobiology and Cryptozoology, a.k.a. "The Blond Yeti"). Since then, it's been one adventure after another, as we investigated reports of El Chupacabra, the Connecticut Hill Monster (the upstate New York cousin of Bigfoot), and various sightings of the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches. But now... now, we have a serious matter to look into.
Carla/Cria sent me a link with information about a place called the Zone of Silence. This spot, located about 400 miles from El Paso, Texas, and near the point where the borders of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Chihuahua, and Durango meet, has a lot of the same characteristics as the Bermuda Triangle. Within this area, "radio and TV signals... are gobbled up," "strange lights or fireballs (maneuver) at night, changing colors, hanging motionless and then taking off at great speed," and there are falls of "small metallic balls... known locally as guÃjolas," which are "collected by locals and visitors alike, and treated with great reverence."
My thought on this last part is that if you are the sort of person who might be tempted to treat a small metallic ball with great reverence, you probably should not be allowed to wander about in the desert unaccompanied.
But I digress.
One difference between this place and the Bermuda Triangle is that being dry land (extremely dry, in this case), the Zone of Silence can also host honest-to-Fox-Mulder Close Encounters of the Third Kind. There have been several reports of meetings with "tall, blond individuals," who spoke flawless Spanish "with a musical ring." In one case, they were wearing yellow raincoats, and helped some lost travelers whose car was stuck in the mud during one of the area's infrequent, but torrential, downpours. This is encouraging; most of the other aliens I've heard of seem more interested in evil pastimes, such as infiltrating world governments, dissecting livestock, and placing computer chips in the heads of abducted earthlings, after the obligatory horrifying medical exam on board the spacecraft, about which we will say no more out of respect for the more sensitive members of the studio audience. Myself, I find reports of helpful aliens distinctly encouraging, and hope you won't think me self-serving if I just mention briefly that if there are any like-minded aliens visiting upstate New York soon, I could sure use a hand cleaning my gutters.
I found this image of a "Nordic Alien" on a website that cautions you against getting into a spaceship piloted by tall blond extraterrestrials, which honestly seems like good advice. It also says that The Matrix was a coded message warning us about the dangers of being harvested by aliens. The good news is that if you are approached, all you have to do is say, "I decline your offer to a contract," and they'll have no choice but to retreat in disarray.
Of course, my more scientific readers will be asking themselves why, exactly, is this spot a "zone of silence?" Answers vary, as you might expect. One explanation I've seen proffered is the presence of uranium ore in nearby mountains (because diffuse deposits of radioactive ores clearly attract aliens, cause small metal balls to fall from the sky, and interfere with radio signals). Another is that this spot represents a "concentration of earth energies." Whatever the fuck that means. It is also claimed that there is an "astronomical observatory thousands of years old... a Mexican Stonehenge" in the area. Well, that's enough for me! Uranium ore + "concentration of earth energies" + anything that can be compared to Stonehenge = some serious shit! ISNOT is on it! Mobilize the troops!
Well, not really. Sadly, we're not able to mobilize in this direction at the present time. The disappointing fact is that given the current state of affairs in northern Mexico, it's not all that appealing to go down and visit the place. I mean, tall blond aliens with yellow rain slickers are one thing; dodging bullets from members of mutually hostile drug cartels is quite another. I think the field work will have to wait until things calm down a little.
Until then, however, keep your eyes open for any other Non-Objective phenomena that may pop up -- we have three highly trained professionals here at ISNOT who are ready to investigate. I'll post further research notes here. You'll be the first to know.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Zombie cult feud
A Senegalese saying goes, "There are forty different kinds of lunacy, but only one kind of common sense."
I got an object lesson in this principle from a link sent to me by a friend and loyal reader of Skeptophilia a few days ago, wherein I learned that two rival zombie apocalypse cults are currently embroiled in a feud. The article, by Robyn Pennacchia over at Wonkette, is well worth reading in its entirety. But my ears perked up instantly when I found out that one of the feuders is one Sherry Shriner. I knew I'd seen her name before, but where?
A brief search was enough to determine why my memory was jogged. Back in 2014, I did a post about how the Evil Shadow Government is outfitting us all with microchips in our dental fillings and implanted medical devices, not to mention through vaccination, with the ultimate aim of controlling our behavior in much the same fashion as a ten-year-old uses the remote control to steer his plastic car directly into a wall.
Fortunately, Shriner is one smart cookie, and found out a way to neutralize the chips, something so unexpected and technical and sophisticated there's no way the Evil Scientists would ever have thought of it: magnets. Apparently the chips kind of conk out when they're placed in a magnetic field. So they turn out to be not such a threat after all, especially if you've ever had an MRI, which must cause the chips to short-circuit so badly that it causes Bad Guy Scientific Laboratories the world over to go up in flames.
But the failure of Shriner's microchip-implant claim apparently didn't discourage her in the least. She is still around, and has come into the news lately through her alleged connection to a crime you might have heard about -- a woman in Tobyhanna, Pennsylvania shot and killed her boyfriend, supposedly when he asked her to because he'd found out that the leader of the cult they belonged to was a "reptilian alien."
Because that makes total sense.
Anyhow, the leader of the cult, and alleged reptilian alien, is none other than Shriner herself. Apparently Shriner tried to warn Steven Mineo, the victim of the shooting, that his girlfriend (Barbara Rogers) was a loon. Not in so many words, of course; what Shriner said was that Rogers was a "Super Soldier." From Shriner's Facebook page:
In case those are a problem in your neighborhood.
Interestingly, Shriner's "Orgone Blasters" are something I've also addressed here at Skeptophilia. "Orgone," if you're curious, is a fantastically powerful kind of energy that is the force of "psychosexual release" that happens at orgasm. How on earth you could use such an energy even if it exists is kind of a mystery, because when most folks have an orgasm they're thinking about other things than how to combat Alien-Demonic-Zombie-Vampire beings.
Or maybe that's just me. I dunno.
You'd think that'd be enough to think about for today, but in the words of the infomercial: "Wait! There's more!" Shriner is currently engaged in a feud with another zombie apocalypse cult, which is called either "Amightywind" or "Almightywind" (even the cult itself seems to be unsure which is correct). The leaders of this cult, Ezra and Elizabeth Elijah Nikomia, have come up with something even better than Shriner's use of magnets to defeat implanted microchips; they say you can defeat zombies by hitting them with a board:
Myself, I'm just glad that Shriner and the Nikomias all live in different states than I do. I'm sure that New York has its share of wackos, but these three seem like they're in a class by themselves. And the fact that they're feuding is honestly kind of scary, because when you have people whose grasp on sanity is so tenuous, you never know what they might do.
Or maybe I'm one of the Secret Reptilian Alien Zombie Vampire Libtards. You can see how that would be just as likely.
I got an object lesson in this principle from a link sent to me by a friend and loyal reader of Skeptophilia a few days ago, wherein I learned that two rival zombie apocalypse cults are currently embroiled in a feud. The article, by Robyn Pennacchia over at Wonkette, is well worth reading in its entirety. But my ears perked up instantly when I found out that one of the feuders is one Sherry Shriner. I knew I'd seen her name before, but where?
A brief search was enough to determine why my memory was jogged. Back in 2014, I did a post about how the Evil Shadow Government is outfitting us all with microchips in our dental fillings and implanted medical devices, not to mention through vaccination, with the ultimate aim of controlling our behavior in much the same fashion as a ten-year-old uses the remote control to steer his plastic car directly into a wall.
Fortunately, Shriner is one smart cookie, and found out a way to neutralize the chips, something so unexpected and technical and sophisticated there's no way the Evil Scientists would ever have thought of it: magnets. Apparently the chips kind of conk out when they're placed in a magnetic field. So they turn out to be not such a threat after all, especially if you've ever had an MRI, which must cause the chips to short-circuit so badly that it causes Bad Guy Scientific Laboratories the world over to go up in flames.
But the failure of Shriner's microchip-implant claim apparently didn't discourage her in the least. She is still around, and has come into the news lately through her alleged connection to a crime you might have heard about -- a woman in Tobyhanna, Pennsylvania shot and killed her boyfriend, supposedly when he asked her to because he'd found out that the leader of the cult they belonged to was a "reptilian alien."
Because that makes total sense.
Anyhow, the leader of the cult, and alleged reptilian alien, is none other than Shriner herself. Apparently Shriner tried to warn Steven Mineo, the victim of the shooting, that his girlfriend (Barbara Rogers) was a loon. Not in so many words, of course; what Shriner said was that Rogers was a "Super Soldier." From Shriner's Facebook page:
They're trying to spin it that I'm responsible for Steve's death? No, Barb is. I tried to protect Steve. I tried to warn him about Barbara Rogers, but he wouldn't listen to me. He thought I was insulting his 'wife'... when I was just trying to protect him from her! I knew what she was! He began to realize that what I said about her was true, and that's why she killed him, to protect her lies and keep her secrets. They want to call me a cult leader? No, I am just a humble servant and a Messenger of the Most High. I spent my life serving HIM, and for that I get beat up by Cain's kids, libtards, Satanists, witches, and haters everywhere. If you open your eyes it's clear to see she was involved with witchcraft and Satanism. Steve didn't want to believe it and now he's dead from her hands. Steve wasn't suicidal, it was her plan all along to destroy him. So all the lies and garbage against me and others just needs to stop...
I warned him she was a Super Soldier who would kill him and move on... but I'm the 'False Prophet'... Perhaps he finally figured her out but it was too late for him. It wasn't the 'online cult' that killed him, it was Barbara Rogers who they had all warned him about! They always try to paint me as a cult... nice try libtards.So yeah, that sounds like the pinnacle of rationality. The picture becomes even more vivid when you add to that the fact that Pennacchia found out that Shriner also thinks she's Lucifer's sister, and that she's personally interviewed her brother (and in fact wrote a book about it, one review of which begins with the memorable line, "This woman is a delusional loon."). Oh, and she also sells crystals called "Orgone Blasters," which supposedly will destroy chemtrails, and which are (this is a direct quote from her website) "the only thing that works against Alien-Demonic-Zombie-Vampire beings."
In case those are a problem in your neighborhood.
[image courtesy of photographer Bob Jagendorf and the Wikimedia Commons]
Or maybe that's just me. I dunno.
You'd think that'd be enough to think about for today, but in the words of the infomercial: "Wait! There's more!" Shriner is currently engaged in a feud with another zombie apocalypse cult, which is called either "Amightywind" or "Almightywind" (even the cult itself seems to be unsure which is correct). The leaders of this cult, Ezra and Elizabeth Elijah Nikomia, have come up with something even better than Shriner's use of magnets to defeat implanted microchips; they say you can defeat zombies by hitting them with a board:
I tell you this now so when you see these things come to pass you will not fear his army of ZOMBIES that will be slain by the POWER OF THE CROSS of YAHUSHUA ha MASHIACH! Remember hit them with a board or wood that represents the CROSS. The dead in YAHUSHUA (Christ) which shall walk and witness to MY Glory will walk as in times of old and testify of Heaven, not to take the MARK of the BEAST! They shall prove there is life after death. MY saints you will hear and see in Glorified Bodies that CAN NOT BE KILLED!So anyhow, Shriner absolutely hates A(l)mightywind, almost as much as she hates "libtards." Alleged boyfriend-killer Barbara Rogers, Shriner says, was an evil witch affiliated with the Nikomias' group, and there's been a years-long war between their rival cults of an intensity reminiscent of the Hatfields and McCoys:
So all the witches online seem to be rallying their covens and fake Christian ministries to protect fellow witch Barbara Rogers and come against me and paint the lie Steve wanted to die. Almightywind Witch Cult is run by a woman who was a witch in the Great White Brotherhood of Indiana, broke off from them to begin her own “ministry’ online. She’s been making hate videos about me for years. Steve was well aware of them.And apparently the idea is that the Nikomias talked Barbara into shooting Steve because Steve had allied himself with Sherry Shriner. From here on it gets kind of confusing, however, so I'll simply direct you to Pennacchia's excellent article if you want more information.
Myself, I'm just glad that Shriner and the Nikomias all live in different states than I do. I'm sure that New York has its share of wackos, but these three seem like they're in a class by themselves. And the fact that they're feuding is honestly kind of scary, because when you have people whose grasp on sanity is so tenuous, you never know what they might do.
Or maybe I'm one of the Secret Reptilian Alien Zombie Vampire Libtards. You can see how that would be just as likely.
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