House of cards

One question that has been raised over and over -- both by me and to me -- is, "what would it take for the diehard core of Donald Trump's base to recognize they'd been had?"

I mean, it's hard to fathom how what's already happened isn't enough.  His disastrous, ill-thought-out punitive tariffs have damaged long-standing trade partnerships and driven exports down and prices up, hurting farming and manufacturing.  Much of what comes out of his mouth is either a calculated lie or else made up on the spot; keeping track of his verifiable falsehoods is very nearly a full-time job.  And then we had his horrifying performance in Helsinki this week, wherein he did everything but kiss Vladimir Putin on the mouth -- along with making statements that, in my opinion, should have resulted in his being arrested for treason the moment he set foot on American soil.

But his base still loves him, and even more bizarrely, the Republicans in Congress do, too.  The criticism the GOP powers-that-be gave him after the Helsinki Summit can be summed up as, "Gee whiz, we wish you hadn't done that.  Oh well."  Worse yet, Senator Bob Corker, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, blocked a measure that would have allowed subpoena of the translator's notes from Trump's closed-door meeting with Putin -- a meeting at which, in Trump's own words, "many agreements were made," even though nobody has the slightest clue what those agreements are.

[Image licensed under the Creative Commons Michael Vadon, Mr Donald Trump New Hampshire Town Hall on August 19th 2015 at Pinkerton Academy in Derry, NH by Michael Vadon 07, CC BY-SA 4.0]

Oh, and how about the fact that the GOP shot down a demand by Democrats that Congress be allowed to question Maria Butina, the accused Russian spy who allegedly funneled millions of dollars from Russia, through the NRA, and into the Trump campaign.  Devin Nunes, who heads the House Intelligence Committee, wouldn't comment, but the only spin I can put on it is that they were afraid of what Butina would say.  Representative Mike Quigley of Illinois concurs:

The fact that we were shut down, they refused to allow subpoenas to go forward involving the gun rights group she formed in Russia and its connection to the NRA — the fact that there were so many other documents they refused subpoena.  They refused to subpoena anyone and make them answer questions.  They went along with the White House insisting no one has to answer our questions.  That sounds like they wanted to work with the White House to protect it politically and legally not get to the truth.

The GOP leaders don't spin it that way, of course.  They simply say, "We trust President Trump."

Myself, I trust President Trump so little that if he said the front lawn was green, I'd want to go outside to verify it myself.

And of course, Trump himself blames his shameful kowtowing to Putin on... surprise!... the media.  Two days ago, he tweeted, "The Summit with Russia was a great success, except with the real enemy of the people, the Fake News Media.  I look forward to our second meeting so that we can start implementing some of the many things discussed."  Because, apparently, the "Fake News Media" is responsible for Trump's siding with Russia, against American intelligence agencies, in full view on television.

In other words, don't believe what you've seen with your own eyes and heard with your own ears.  Believe what I tell you.  Even when I tell you one thing today, and exactly the opposite tomorrow.  I wasn't wrong either time, I wasn't lying either time.  It's the media, trying to confuse matters and make me look bad.

But no group of Trump supporters baffles me more than the evangelicals.  I know I've said it before, but I simply cannot fathom how a group priding themselves on being the Pillars of Morality in America can continue to support a greedy, grasping, lying, narcissistic, ignorant bigot.  "God can work with a broken tool," I had one person tell me.  The fact is, the evangelicals as a whole still believe in Trump without question.  And that belief isn't just strong, it's got the zeal and fervor of a cult.  Consider what evangelical television host Rick Wiles said yesterday on his show:

[Rachel Maddow] was spewing out, last night, calls for revolution.  She was telling the left, ‘Take a deep breath, we’re at the moment, it’s coming, we’re almost there, we’re going to remove him from the White House.  We’re about 72 hours—possibly 72 hours—from a coup.  Be prepared that you’re going to turn on the television and see helicopters hovering over the roof of the White House with men clad in black rappelling down ropes, entering into the White House.  Be prepared for a shootout in the White House as Secret Service agents shoot commandos coming in to arrest President Trump.  That is how close we are to a revolution.  Be prepared for a mob— a leftist mob—to tear down the gates, the fence at the White House and to go into the White House and to drag him out with his family and decapitate them on the lawn of the White House.

I'd laugh if it weren't for the fact that a significant number of Americans believe he's right.

I am seriously afraid of where this country is headed.  Wiles may be right about the armed mobs, but it's not the leftists I'm worried about.  It's the right-wing fanatics -- that 30% who still, after all this, think that Donald Trump is the best man to lead our nation.  Because when this house of cards falls, it's going to fall hard.  The effective half-life of tyranny is always short, however horrible it is for the people who have to live through it.  But there is no way that Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Dana Rohrabacher, and the rest of the people running around propping up the Trump edifice with sticks can succeed for long.

I just hope the damage to our nation isn't irreparable by the time it happens.

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This week's Skeptophilia book recommendation is a must-read for anyone concerned about the current state of the world's environment.  The Sixth Extinction, by Elizabeth Kolbert, is a retrospective of the five great extinction events the Earth has experienced -- the largest of which, the Permian-Triassic extinction of 252 million years ago, wiped out 95% of the species on Earth.  Kolbert makes a persuasive, if devastating, argument; that we are currently in the middle of a sixth mass extinction -- this one caused exclusively by the activities of humans.  It's a fascinating, alarming, and absolutely essential read.  [If you purchase the book from Amazon using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to supporting Skeptophilia!]

Sunk cost and treason

There's this thing called the sunk-cost fallacy -- that once a person has put a lot of time, money, effort, or emotional investment into something, they are unlikely admit that it didn't live up to its expectations.

This is the only thing I can come up with to explain why Republican leaders are still sticking with Donald Trump, even after credible allegations that not only did the Russians tamper with the election results, Trump encouraged them to do so.  Giving a foreign power access to our government for malign purposes is, I thought, the definition of treason.  Imagine, for example, if there were evidence that Barack Obama had allowed a foreign government to manipulate election results.  These same people who are giving Trump a pass on this, or ignoring it completely, would be calling for reinstating crucifixion.

To be fair, some Republicans are aghast at this.  Lindsey Graham has been outspoken in his call for an independent investigation of the allegations.  John McCain went even further, saying that if the claims are true, it could "destroy democracy" in the United States.  Even Mitch McConnell, who has been one of Trump's biggest supporters, has joined in the call.  Much as I hate to admit agreeing with Joe Walsh on anything, he hit the nail on the head a few days ago with this tweet:

Which is it exactly.  I would think that anyone, regardless of party affiliation, would be appalled at the idea that the Russians may have influenced a national election, and would want it investigated.

But astonishingly, that isn't what's happening.  Other than a few outspoken conservatives who want the issue looked at -- if for no other reason, to clear Trump's name and get rid of any taint of illegitimacy -- most Republicans are shrugging their shoulders and saying, "Meh.  No biggie."

Now wait just a moment.  These were the same people who were chanting "Lock her up!" because of allegations that Hillary Clinton mishandled some emails.  Instead, what has been the overall response?

An increase in the positive ratings of Vladimir Putin.

I'm not making this up.  In a poll conducted by The Economist, favorable ratings for Putin tripled in the past two years, most of the increase being in the last month.  In fact, Representative Dana Rohrabacher of California made the following astonishing statement: "There’s a lot of negative things about [Putin] that are accurate but there are a lot of negative things about him that have been said that are inaccurate.  At least the other other side of the coin is being heard now...  Finally there’s some refutation of some of the inaccurate criticisms finally being heard."

So instead of people being outraged that Putin and his cronies may have interfered in the election, they're saying, "Well, maybe Putin's not so bad after all."

I can't think of anything but sunk cost as an explanation for this.  These people have already overlooked so much in the way of Donald Trump's unethical behavior, evasions, and outright lies, not to mention his blatant lack of qualifications for the job, that to admit that this finally drives them over the edge would require a huge shift of perspective.  I've never seen a candidate that elicits such an enormous emotional response from ordinary citizens; huge investments of time and energy have been put into seeing him in the White House.  For the pro-Trump cadre to say "Okay, we were wrong about him" is apparently a bridge too far.  Easier to say, "Trump's got to be right, so we were wrong about Putin."

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, agrees.  He said, "The Republican base, particularly the Trump part of the Republican base, is going to regard anyone and anything that helped their great leader to win as a positive force, or at least a less negative force."

I hope that wise heads prevail and that the allegations are at least investigated.  And although I don't like Trump, I hope they turn out to be false, because the idea that the Russians (or any other country) are able to manipulate our government so boldly is profoundly terrifying.  But if they are true -- if the evidence supports the Russian hacks -- we have to act.  I'm no constitutional law scholar, but there has to be some provision for invalidating an election's results if the outcome was affected by a foreign power.

Especially if a cold, calculating villain like Vladimir Putin is responsible for it.