Christen Simensen, a materials scientist with Norwegian research firm SINTEF, has provided a scientific explanation of how collision with jets brought down the Twin Towers.  [Source]
In a recent paper in the journal Aluminum International Today, Simensen describes how the jet fuel alone could have heated up the aluminum in the fuselage to its melting point.  The molten aluminum would have reacted with water from the sprinkler system, generating hydrogen gas, an explosion, and a rapid heating to 2,200 degrees Fahrenheit -- sufficient to melt the steel girders, resulting in the building's collapse.
This, Simensen claims, should put to rest all of the claims by conspiracy theorists that 9/11 was an "inside job," as it convincingly explains all of the observed data, including the explosions that preceded the collapse of the building.  These explosions are some of the main points in arguments made by people who think that someone -- variously claimed to be the Bush administration, the Bilderburg Group, the Illuminati, the Jews, and probably a whole host of others -- planted bombs in the Twin Towers, prior to the airplane collisions, to assure that the buildings would fall.
To which I say: Mr. Simensen, you are an optimist.
Conspiracy theorists have no respect for data, logic, and science.  I would not hesitate to guess that the conspiracy theorists you think will be silenced by your paper will now only squawk the louder, and claim that you were paid to write what you did.  That's the trouble with folks who believe in conspiracies; if you argue with them, they merely shake their heads and add you to the list of Conspirators.
Coincidentally, last Thursday Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is in New York City for a meeting of the UN General Assembly, met with reporters from the Associated Press, and stated that "as an engineer," he thinks it is impossible for two planes to have brought down the Twin Towers.  He stopped short of claiming the the US government was complicit in the catastrophe, but that was clearly what he was implying.  I seriously doubt that Ahmadinejad would be at all convinced by Simensen's paper -- given that he considers the Holocaust a "mythical claim" that the Jews fabricated in order to facilitate the creation of Israel.  Believe me, if you can discount tens of thousands of photographs, records, and first-hand accounts of a catastrophe that killed six million, you can certainly ignore an argument in Aluminum International Today.
Conspiracy theories are kind of like taking the idea of confirmation bias and running off the cliff with it.  Confirmation bias, you may remember from yesterday's post, is when you already have decided what you believe, so you exaggerate the importance of tiny bits of evidence in favor of your claim, and ignore mountains of evidence against it.  Proponents of conspiracy theories take it a step further; they look on a complete lack of evidence as a point in their favor.  "Of course there's no hard evidence," they say.  "They're a wily bunch, those conspirators.  They wouldn't just leave evidence hanging around."
The whole thing reminds me of the story of the man whose friend, every time he came for a visit, would stop in the doorway, put his hands together as if in prayer, and intone, "May this house be safe from tigers."  After this had happened several times, the man said to his friend, "Why do you keep doing that?  It's pointless.  I've never seen any tigers.  There's probably not a tiger within a thousand miles of here."
The friend smiled.  "It works well, doesn't it?"
Skeptophilia (skep-to-fil-i-a) (n.) - the love of logical thought, skepticism, and thinking critically.  Being an exploration of the applications of skeptical thinking to the world at large, with periodic excursions into linguistics, music, politics, cryptozoology, and why people keep seeing the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Deconstructing Wah!
Yesterday, I received a mailing from The Omega Institute, of Rhinebeck, New York, suggesting that I might be interested in taking some of their classes. 
Frankly, I suspect that I'd last six hours there before security guards escorted me off the premises for guffawing at the staff. I first started receiving mailings from them because I was interested in their art and writing intensives, but (as I found out on my first perusal of their catalog) at least half of their offerings are seriously woo-woo. One I particularly enjoyed reading about is the use of music in healing, taught by a woman named Wah! (The exclamation point is not me being emphatic; it's part of her name.) What would possess someone to change her name to Wah! is a mystery in and of itself, but I did go to her website and listen to some of her music, and what I heard seemed to fall into the Overwrought, Therapy-Session-Gone-Horribly-Wrong School of Music. I didn't find it particularly healing, myself, but maybe the point was that it was healing to her -- I don't honestly know.
A more interesting example, however, are the workshops offered by a fellow named John Perkins that claim to teach you how to shape-shift. From the description of one of these workshops:
It is amazing the lengths to which the woo-woos of the world will go to support their beliefs. My wife Carol, in her nursing program, had to take a course in "alternatives to traditional medicine." Her own take on this was that if it had been about the role of belief in the efficacy of medicine, that would have been fine; but they didn't stop there. They started out with therapies for which there is at least some experimental support (such as acupuncture) and from there took a flying leap out into the void, landing amongst such ridiculous and discredited ideas as homeopathy, chakras, and healing through crystal energies. This last one led to a spectacle that was (according to Carol) acutely embarrassing to watch, wherein the teacher held a crystal hanging from a string over a student's head, to show that the crystal could pick up the student's "life energy" and begin to swing of its own volition. There was no response from the crystal (surprise!!!) for some minutes, while the students sat fidgeting and looking at each other, but after about ten minutes the crystal moved. Hallelujah! The theory is vindicated!
All of which brings up the subject of confirmation bias. This is when you've already decided on your conclusion, and you therefore only pay attention to any evidence (however minuscule) that confirms your idea, and everything else is ignored. Any movement of the crystal had to be due to the subject's energy field -- other hypotheses (such as that the teacher's arm was getting a bit tired after holding the crystal up there for ten minutes, and he moved his hand a little, causing the crystal to swing) are not even acknowledged.
You see what you want to see. And, if you're lucky, you get to make a bunch of poor college students sit there while you're doing it.
So far, I am sounding awfully self-confident, as I have a tendency to do. But if I'm being totally honest, I have to look at my own ideas in the same light. One of the great myths of the last hundred years is, I think, that somehow everyone is biased except for the scientists -- that the scientists have this blinding clarity of vision, that they are objective and unbiased and therefore have cornered the market on truth. While there are probably scientists who believe this, the truth of the matter is that most scientists are well aware of their biases. We, too, see what we want to see. First, we have to believe that the scientific way of knowing leads us closer to the truth -- which statement, of course, you can't prove. Furthermore, if you're a researcher, you're not approaching a question with a completely open mind; you already have (at least to some extent) figured out what you think is going on, and so when you design your measurement equipment and your experimental protocol, you do so in a way to find what you think it is that you're going to find. If there's something else going on, you might not even see it -- unless you're extraordinarily lucky. Perhaps that's why serious paradigm shifts have so often happened because of some random piece of evidence, from an unexpected source, that someone (often by accident) notices. It's how Kepler found out that planetary orbits are elliptical; it's how plate tectonics was discovered; it's how penicillin was discovered. (Witness yesterday's announcement that physicists at CERN may have found a particle that can move faster than the speed of light -- a finding that, if confirmed, will knock out one of the major underpinnings of Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity.)
Science doesn't proceed by clear, logical little steps, by people adding brick after brick to an edifice whose plan is already well known and laid out on the table. Like most of the other things in this world, it proceeds by jerky fits and starts, false turns, and backtracking. The "scientific method" no more explains how we've accrued the knowledge we have than "life energies" explain the movement of a crystal hanging from a string.
So then, why am I a scientist? Why don't I just go and join Wah! and John Perkins? (Just think, I could come up with a pretentious single syllable name, with a punctuation mark, too! I think I'd be "Huh?") For me, the single strength of science as a world view is its ability to self-correct. You claim that plate tectonics exists? Okay -- anyone with the equipment, time, and inclination can go out there and verify the evidence themselves. If an experiment is not found to be repeatable (such as the "cold fusion" debacle), it's not explained away with some foolishness like "the energy fields were being interfered with by the chakras of your aura" -- the whole idea is simply abandoned. The procedures, equipment, and outcomes are out there for peer review, and if they are found wanting, the theory is modified, altered, or scrapped entirely.
Try that with the healing energy of music. I bet if several of you were sick, and I played some of Wah!'s music for you, some of you would get better. Some of you might get sicker. (I suspect I'd be in the latter category.) And for those of you who got well, how could we be certain that it was the music that was responsible? Because Wah! says so? Because the idea that music could have a healing energy appeals to you? If I've learned anything in my fifty years on this planet, it's that there seems to be no connection between ideas I find appealing and ideas that are true -- if anything, the opposite seems to be the case.
Anyhow, as usual, I've probably pissed off large quantities of people who are into homeopathy, crystal energies, numerology, astrology, faith healing, and so on. But I'm reminded of a quote from (of all people) C. S. Lewis, whose wonderful character Mr. MacPhee said in That Hideous Strength, "If anything wants Andrew MacPhee to believe in its existence, I'll be obliged if it will present itself in full daylight, with a sufficient number of witnesses present, and not get shy if you hold up a camera or a thermometer."
To which I say, "hear, hear." On the other hand, if I get visited tonight by an anaconda, I suppose it will serve me right.
Frankly, I suspect that I'd last six hours there before security guards escorted me off the premises for guffawing at the staff. I first started receiving mailings from them because I was interested in their art and writing intensives, but (as I found out on my first perusal of their catalog) at least half of their offerings are seriously woo-woo. One I particularly enjoyed reading about is the use of music in healing, taught by a woman named Wah! (The exclamation point is not me being emphatic; it's part of her name.) What would possess someone to change her name to Wah! is a mystery in and of itself, but I did go to her website and listen to some of her music, and what I heard seemed to fall into the Overwrought, Therapy-Session-Gone-Horribly-Wrong School of Music. I didn't find it particularly healing, myself, but maybe the point was that it was healing to her -- I don't honestly know.
A more interesting example, however, are the workshops offered by a fellow named John Perkins that claim to teach you how to shape-shift. From the description of one of these workshops:
We have entered a time prophesied by many cultures for shapeshifting into higher consciousness. Polynesian shamans shapeshift through oceans, Amazon warriors transform into anacondas, and Andean birdpeople and Tibetan monks bilocate across mountains. These shamans have taught John Perkins that shapeshifting - the ability to alter form at will - can be used to create positive change.Well, okay. I'm willing to accept that some Amazonian shamans believed that they could become anacondas. I'm also all too willing to accept that certain other, fairly gullible, Amazonian natives believed that the shamans were becoming anacondas. But this demands the question, doesn't it, of whether they actually are becoming anacondas. Some of the disciples of the woo-woo will respond with something like, "reality is what you think it is." Which works just fine until reality in the form of a baseball bat wallops you in the forehead, at which point you can think it doesn't exist, you can in fact think that you're an Andean birdperson, but what you really will be is a confused, non-Andean, ordinary person with a concussion and a big old dent in your head.
It is amazing the lengths to which the woo-woos of the world will go to support their beliefs. My wife Carol, in her nursing program, had to take a course in "alternatives to traditional medicine." Her own take on this was that if it had been about the role of belief in the efficacy of medicine, that would have been fine; but they didn't stop there. They started out with therapies for which there is at least some experimental support (such as acupuncture) and from there took a flying leap out into the void, landing amongst such ridiculous and discredited ideas as homeopathy, chakras, and healing through crystal energies. This last one led to a spectacle that was (according to Carol) acutely embarrassing to watch, wherein the teacher held a crystal hanging from a string over a student's head, to show that the crystal could pick up the student's "life energy" and begin to swing of its own volition. There was no response from the crystal (surprise!!!) for some minutes, while the students sat fidgeting and looking at each other, but after about ten minutes the crystal moved. Hallelujah! The theory is vindicated!
All of which brings up the subject of confirmation bias. This is when you've already decided on your conclusion, and you therefore only pay attention to any evidence (however minuscule) that confirms your idea, and everything else is ignored. Any movement of the crystal had to be due to the subject's energy field -- other hypotheses (such as that the teacher's arm was getting a bit tired after holding the crystal up there for ten minutes, and he moved his hand a little, causing the crystal to swing) are not even acknowledged.
You see what you want to see. And, if you're lucky, you get to make a bunch of poor college students sit there while you're doing it.
So far, I am sounding awfully self-confident, as I have a tendency to do. But if I'm being totally honest, I have to look at my own ideas in the same light. One of the great myths of the last hundred years is, I think, that somehow everyone is biased except for the scientists -- that the scientists have this blinding clarity of vision, that they are objective and unbiased and therefore have cornered the market on truth. While there are probably scientists who believe this, the truth of the matter is that most scientists are well aware of their biases. We, too, see what we want to see. First, we have to believe that the scientific way of knowing leads us closer to the truth -- which statement, of course, you can't prove. Furthermore, if you're a researcher, you're not approaching a question with a completely open mind; you already have (at least to some extent) figured out what you think is going on, and so when you design your measurement equipment and your experimental protocol, you do so in a way to find what you think it is that you're going to find. If there's something else going on, you might not even see it -- unless you're extraordinarily lucky. Perhaps that's why serious paradigm shifts have so often happened because of some random piece of evidence, from an unexpected source, that someone (often by accident) notices. It's how Kepler found out that planetary orbits are elliptical; it's how plate tectonics was discovered; it's how penicillin was discovered. (Witness yesterday's announcement that physicists at CERN may have found a particle that can move faster than the speed of light -- a finding that, if confirmed, will knock out one of the major underpinnings of Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity.)
Science doesn't proceed by clear, logical little steps, by people adding brick after brick to an edifice whose plan is already well known and laid out on the table. Like most of the other things in this world, it proceeds by jerky fits and starts, false turns, and backtracking. The "scientific method" no more explains how we've accrued the knowledge we have than "life energies" explain the movement of a crystal hanging from a string.
So then, why am I a scientist? Why don't I just go and join Wah! and John Perkins? (Just think, I could come up with a pretentious single syllable name, with a punctuation mark, too! I think I'd be "Huh?") For me, the single strength of science as a world view is its ability to self-correct. You claim that plate tectonics exists? Okay -- anyone with the equipment, time, and inclination can go out there and verify the evidence themselves. If an experiment is not found to be repeatable (such as the "cold fusion" debacle), it's not explained away with some foolishness like "the energy fields were being interfered with by the chakras of your aura" -- the whole idea is simply abandoned. The procedures, equipment, and outcomes are out there for peer review, and if they are found wanting, the theory is modified, altered, or scrapped entirely.
Try that with the healing energy of music. I bet if several of you were sick, and I played some of Wah!'s music for you, some of you would get better. Some of you might get sicker. (I suspect I'd be in the latter category.) And for those of you who got well, how could we be certain that it was the music that was responsible? Because Wah! says so? Because the idea that music could have a healing energy appeals to you? If I've learned anything in my fifty years on this planet, it's that there seems to be no connection between ideas I find appealing and ideas that are true -- if anything, the opposite seems to be the case.
Anyhow, as usual, I've probably pissed off large quantities of people who are into homeopathy, crystal energies, numerology, astrology, faith healing, and so on. But I'm reminded of a quote from (of all people) C. S. Lewis, whose wonderful character Mr. MacPhee said in That Hideous Strength, "If anything wants Andrew MacPhee to believe in its existence, I'll be obliged if it will present itself in full daylight, with a sufficient number of witnesses present, and not get shy if you hold up a camera or a thermometer."
To which I say, "hear, hear." On the other hand, if I get visited tonight by an anaconda, I suppose it will serve me right.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The ley of the land
I ran into the idea of ley lines fifteen years ago on a trip to the UK.  I spent a month in the summer of 1995 hiking in the north of England, visiting old cathedrals and monastery ruins, and while I was at Rievaulx Abbey, I had a chance meeting with an English woman who said that if you connected the positions of holy sites on a map with straight lines, it made a pattern.
"They sited monasteries, cloisters, and cathedrals where they did because they were places of power," she said. "The ley lines are channels of psychic energy, and where they intersect, it creates a kind of vortex. The ancients felt this, and that's why they built monuments there, and later churches and abbeys."
Couldn't it, I asked her, also have to do with building in places where there was good access to water, and perhaps pre-existing roads?
"I suppose that also might have had something to do with it," she said, sounding doubtful.
For all her claims of the antiquity of this idea, the concept of ley lines is less than a hundred years old, and at first, it had nothing to do with anything psychic. Alfred Watkins, an amateur archaeologist, noted in his books Early British Trackways and The Old Straight Track how often multiple sites of archaeological or historical relevance lay upon the same straight lines, and he coined the term "ley lines" to describe this phenomenon. He suggested that the reason was for ease of road-building -- especially in the southern half of England, where the terrain is mostly gentle, a straight line connecting several population centers is the smartest way site roads and settlements. It wasn't until 48 years later that noted woo-woo John Michell, author of The View Over Atlantis, took Watkins' ley lines and connected them to the Chinese idea of feng shui and came up with the theory that ley lines were rivers of psychic energy, and the intersections ("nodes") were places of power.
The interesting thing is that Watkins himself wasn't even right, appealing though the idea is. Mathematician David George Kendall and others have used a technique called shape analysis to demonstrate that the occurrence of straight-line connections between archaeological sites in England is no greater than you would expect from chance. Put simply, a densely-settled place like England has so many sites of historical relevance that if you are allowed to pick and choose, you can find any number of lines that intersect, or at least clip, interesting places.
Take a look, for example, at the following diagram (courtesy of the Wikimedia Commons):
This image shows 137 randomly-placed points. A computer program was employed to find all of the straight-line connections of four or more points -- and it found eighty of them!
So, even if you eliminate all of the woo-woo trappings from the idea, it seems like the whole concept of "sacred sites" falling along straight lines is attributable to coincidence. A pity, really. I have always wondered if our house was at the intersection of two ley lines. I was all prepared to use Intersections of Psychic Energy Channels and Nodes of Power Vortexes to explain why my digital alarm clock runs fast and why the dryer keeps eating my socks.
"They sited monasteries, cloisters, and cathedrals where they did because they were places of power," she said. "The ley lines are channels of psychic energy, and where they intersect, it creates a kind of vortex. The ancients felt this, and that's why they built monuments there, and later churches and abbeys."
Couldn't it, I asked her, also have to do with building in places where there was good access to water, and perhaps pre-existing roads?
"I suppose that also might have had something to do with it," she said, sounding doubtful.
For all her claims of the antiquity of this idea, the concept of ley lines is less than a hundred years old, and at first, it had nothing to do with anything psychic. Alfred Watkins, an amateur archaeologist, noted in his books Early British Trackways and The Old Straight Track how often multiple sites of archaeological or historical relevance lay upon the same straight lines, and he coined the term "ley lines" to describe this phenomenon. He suggested that the reason was for ease of road-building -- especially in the southern half of England, where the terrain is mostly gentle, a straight line connecting several population centers is the smartest way site roads and settlements. It wasn't until 48 years later that noted woo-woo John Michell, author of The View Over Atlantis, took Watkins' ley lines and connected them to the Chinese idea of feng shui and came up with the theory that ley lines were rivers of psychic energy, and the intersections ("nodes") were places of power.
The interesting thing is that Watkins himself wasn't even right, appealing though the idea is. Mathematician David George Kendall and others have used a technique called shape analysis to demonstrate that the occurrence of straight-line connections between archaeological sites in England is no greater than you would expect from chance. Put simply, a densely-settled place like England has so many sites of historical relevance that if you are allowed to pick and choose, you can find any number of lines that intersect, or at least clip, interesting places.
Take a look, for example, at the following diagram (courtesy of the Wikimedia Commons):
This image shows 137 randomly-placed points. A computer program was employed to find all of the straight-line connections of four or more points -- and it found eighty of them!
So, even if you eliminate all of the woo-woo trappings from the idea, it seems like the whole concept of "sacred sites" falling along straight lines is attributable to coincidence. A pity, really. I have always wondered if our house was at the intersection of two ley lines. I was all prepared to use Intersections of Psychic Energy Channels and Nodes of Power Vortexes to explain why my digital alarm clock runs fast and why the dryer keeps eating my socks.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Facts, lies, slant, and politics
Why are we willing to accept that in politics, facts don't matter?
Let's say that in my biology classes, I told the students that eating yogurt was directly linked to male pattern baldness, and that studies had shown that raspberry yogurt was the worst -- eating one serving of raspberry yogurt per week boosted your risk of hair loss by 50%. Then, a student does some research, and finds that this statement is, in fact, false, that no such studies have ever been done, and that yogurt-eaters are just as likely to keep their hair as anyone else. And I respond: "Well, it was true to the best of my knowledge at the time. And in any case, we all agree that male pattern baldness is still a serious problem that we need to address."
I suspect I'd be shown the door by the principal, tolerant man though he is -- if the students and their parents hadn't run me out of town first.
Politics, however, seems to give you an immediate gloss of immunity from telling the truth. Witness the much-publicized claim by Michele Bachmann that the HPV vaccine causes mental retardation. In an interview with Matt Lauer on NBC's Today, she related a story about a "crying mother" who had come up to her, and spoken about her daughter:
"She told me that her little daughter took that vaccine, that injection, and she suffered from mental retardation thereafter. It can have very dangerous side effects," Bachmann said. "This is the very real concern, and people have to draw their own conclusions."
Well, this incident may have actually occurred, but of course there turns out to be no connection whatsoever between the HPV vaccine (or any other vaccine) and mental retardation. Like any medicine, it can have side effects, but these are infrequent, seldom severe, and are in any case are far outweighed by the protection the vaccine provides. In the case of the HPV vaccine, the CDC reports that of the 35 million doses that have been administered, there have been 18,000 reports of side effects, of which 92% were classified as "non-serious" -- and none of the serious side effects included mental retardation. To save you from having to do the math, that's a rate of serious side effects of a little more than 0.004%.
Then, we had Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina claiming that substance abuse was widespread at government facilities. She was giving a speech in favor of her plan to introduce drug testing as a requirement before the jobless could collect unemployment. In defense of her plan, she made the statement that substance abuse was an "epidemic," and that at South Carolina's Savannah River Nuclear Power Facility, "... of everyone they interviewed, half of them failed a drug test."
Government officials who oversee the site immediately said, quote, "What the hell?" and demanded that Haley retract the statement. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy brought forth records proving that (1) they don't drug test people during interviews, only after they are offered a job; (2) the rate of failure of people offered jobs at the Savannah River site is under 1%; and (3) passing a drug test is a condition of employment, so that less-than-1% never began work there in the first place. Haley at first tried to defend her claim, but when the demands to retract grew louder, she said, and I quote: "I've never felt like I had to back up what people tell me. You assume you're given good information."
Please note here that I am deliberately not addressing the points that either Bachmann or Haley were trying to make -- whether it is a good idea to force parents of pre-teen girls to be vaccinated for HPV, or whether it is a good idea to require mandatory drug testing as a condition for receiving unemployment benefits. My point here is, if you think something is a good idea, shouldn't you have actual factual reasons for your belief, and not just half-truths, exaggerations, and outright fabrications? Why would you stand up in public, with its virtually instantaneous access to fact-checking via the internet, and make patently erroneous statements? And confronted with incontrovertible evidence that you had said something incorrect, why wouldn't you stand up and say, "I was wrong. The statement I made was completely non-factual, and for that I apologize."?
Politics seems to be one of the only venues around where people can make up facts and statistics as they go along, continue to defend them when confronted, and still somehow maintain credibility with their supporters. In fact, their supporters are sometimes so vehement in their defense that they question the facts themselves, as if facts had a political spin, as if the CDC (for example) based its statistics on some kind of political agenda. In one of the infrequent political arguments I've been in -- I tend to avoid them like the plague, as I find them generally pointless in every sense of the word -- I was accused of believing the "slanted liberal spin machine" because I quoted statistics that (1) were a matter of public record, and (2) had been verified by FactCheck.org.
The whole thing demands that I say it bluntly: facts matter. What conclusions you draw from those facts are up to you. But the data is available to all, and is the same for everyone, and data has no political bias. I have more than once quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, but it bears saying again: "You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts."
Let's say that in my biology classes, I told the students that eating yogurt was directly linked to male pattern baldness, and that studies had shown that raspberry yogurt was the worst -- eating one serving of raspberry yogurt per week boosted your risk of hair loss by 50%. Then, a student does some research, and finds that this statement is, in fact, false, that no such studies have ever been done, and that yogurt-eaters are just as likely to keep their hair as anyone else. And I respond: "Well, it was true to the best of my knowledge at the time. And in any case, we all agree that male pattern baldness is still a serious problem that we need to address."
I suspect I'd be shown the door by the principal, tolerant man though he is -- if the students and their parents hadn't run me out of town first.
Politics, however, seems to give you an immediate gloss of immunity from telling the truth. Witness the much-publicized claim by Michele Bachmann that the HPV vaccine causes mental retardation. In an interview with Matt Lauer on NBC's Today, she related a story about a "crying mother" who had come up to her, and spoken about her daughter:
"She told me that her little daughter took that vaccine, that injection, and she suffered from mental retardation thereafter. It can have very dangerous side effects," Bachmann said. "This is the very real concern, and people have to draw their own conclusions."
Well, this incident may have actually occurred, but of course there turns out to be no connection whatsoever between the HPV vaccine (or any other vaccine) and mental retardation. Like any medicine, it can have side effects, but these are infrequent, seldom severe, and are in any case are far outweighed by the protection the vaccine provides. In the case of the HPV vaccine, the CDC reports that of the 35 million doses that have been administered, there have been 18,000 reports of side effects, of which 92% were classified as "non-serious" -- and none of the serious side effects included mental retardation. To save you from having to do the math, that's a rate of serious side effects of a little more than 0.004%.
Then, we had Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina claiming that substance abuse was widespread at government facilities. She was giving a speech in favor of her plan to introduce drug testing as a requirement before the jobless could collect unemployment. In defense of her plan, she made the statement that substance abuse was an "epidemic," and that at South Carolina's Savannah River Nuclear Power Facility, "... of everyone they interviewed, half of them failed a drug test."
Government officials who oversee the site immediately said, quote, "What the hell?" and demanded that Haley retract the statement. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy brought forth records proving that (1) they don't drug test people during interviews, only after they are offered a job; (2) the rate of failure of people offered jobs at the Savannah River site is under 1%; and (3) passing a drug test is a condition of employment, so that less-than-1% never began work there in the first place. Haley at first tried to defend her claim, but when the demands to retract grew louder, she said, and I quote: "I've never felt like I had to back up what people tell me. You assume you're given good information."
Please note here that I am deliberately not addressing the points that either Bachmann or Haley were trying to make -- whether it is a good idea to force parents of pre-teen girls to be vaccinated for HPV, or whether it is a good idea to require mandatory drug testing as a condition for receiving unemployment benefits. My point here is, if you think something is a good idea, shouldn't you have actual factual reasons for your belief, and not just half-truths, exaggerations, and outright fabrications? Why would you stand up in public, with its virtually instantaneous access to fact-checking via the internet, and make patently erroneous statements? And confronted with incontrovertible evidence that you had said something incorrect, why wouldn't you stand up and say, "I was wrong. The statement I made was completely non-factual, and for that I apologize."?
Politics seems to be one of the only venues around where people can make up facts and statistics as they go along, continue to defend them when confronted, and still somehow maintain credibility with their supporters. In fact, their supporters are sometimes so vehement in their defense that they question the facts themselves, as if facts had a political spin, as if the CDC (for example) based its statistics on some kind of political agenda. In one of the infrequent political arguments I've been in -- I tend to avoid them like the plague, as I find them generally pointless in every sense of the word -- I was accused of believing the "slanted liberal spin machine" because I quoted statistics that (1) were a matter of public record, and (2) had been verified by FactCheck.org.
The whole thing demands that I say it bluntly: facts matter. What conclusions you draw from those facts are up to you. But the data is available to all, and is the same for everyone, and data has no political bias. I have more than once quoted Daniel Patrick Moynihan, but it bears saying again: "You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts."
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
It's raining death satellites, hallelujah!
Is anyone but me worried about the satellite that's going to come crashing down at the end of this week?
The powers-that-be have known about the upcoming collision for months; it's a US UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) that was launched in 1991. It was decommissioned and shut down six years ago, and its orbit has been decaying ever since. Without any intervention, the satellite will reenter the earth's atmosphere, and strike the ground on Friday, September 23, give or take six hours or so on either side. The satellite itself weighs 6 tons, which is enough to make a helluva crater.
But not to worry; NASA has narrowed down the impact site to being "probably somewhere on Earth."
Our response? Being that our president is Barack "No More Mr. Nice Guy" Obama, we seem to be doing nothing more than sitting here watching it plummet toward us.
"We're doing our best to compromise with the satellite," the president said, in a press conference. "We attempted to persuade it to fall on Warren Buffett, but this would likely put his secretary at risk, too, and there's no justification for that. We hope to have an agreement reached with the satellite by some time next year."
In a stinging criticism of the president, Texas governor and presidential hopeful Rick Perry stated that this was an entirely inadequate response, and said that a falling death satellite could have devastating effects on the economy. He ended on a hopeful note, however, suggesting that the danger from the satellite might well be overblown. "We should remember," Perry stated to a cheering crowd of Republicans, "that gravity is, after all, only a theory."
Okay, maybe I'm being a little unfair, here; it's not like there's really anything they can do at this point. If they'd gotten on the stick a little earlier, they might have been able to shoot the satellite down, which is what they did the last time this happened. Of course, this was during the presidency of George "Git 'Er Done" Bush, whose entire foreign policy was, quote, "YEEEEEE-HAWWWW!", and who seemed to think that "Blast the crap out of it" was an appropriate response to damn near everything. In that case, however, it actually worked, and the satellite was blown into pieces small enough to burn up in the atmosphere. But it's too late to attempt anything like that this time, so all we can do now is sit back and wait. As one NASA official put it, and unlike the previous quotes, I'm not making this one up, "If you're near the impact site, you'll be in for a nice fireworks show as it breaks up on descent."
Well, isn't that a lovely thought! We might even be able to appreciate the pretty lights for several seconds before we get flattened. And it's not like the "breaking up on descent" part makes it any better; instead of one big chunk o' metal, we'll now have a hundred slightly smaller chunks o' metal. It's not like all 26 tons of satellite are going to vaporize, Star Trek style, into a cloud of dust.
And no one, as far as I've heard, has questioned the wisdom of putting the damn things up there in the first place. You'd think that the folks at NASA would have heard of the concept of air resistance, wherein drag with the atmosphere (thin as it is up there) eventually causes the orbits of all satellites to decay. Apparently not, given the fact that every time we send a rocket up, we basically put another piece of space junk into high orbit. All that stuff will, sooner or later, come crashing down. But fear not; it probably won't be for a long while for most of them, and the Earth's a big place. As far as this Friday's event, the chance that anyone's house will get hit by a falling satellite part is only "one in 3,200."
Nevertheless, I'm keeping my eye on the sky on Friday. I won't have time to run if I'm in the bullseye, but at least I won't get caught unawares.
Which, now that I come to think of it, isn't all that much consolation.
The powers-that-be have known about the upcoming collision for months; it's a US UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) that was launched in 1991. It was decommissioned and shut down six years ago, and its orbit has been decaying ever since. Without any intervention, the satellite will reenter the earth's atmosphere, and strike the ground on Friday, September 23, give or take six hours or so on either side. The satellite itself weighs 6 tons, which is enough to make a helluva crater.
But not to worry; NASA has narrowed down the impact site to being "probably somewhere on Earth."
Our response? Being that our president is Barack "No More Mr. Nice Guy" Obama, we seem to be doing nothing more than sitting here watching it plummet toward us.
"We're doing our best to compromise with the satellite," the president said, in a press conference. "We attempted to persuade it to fall on Warren Buffett, but this would likely put his secretary at risk, too, and there's no justification for that. We hope to have an agreement reached with the satellite by some time next year."
In a stinging criticism of the president, Texas governor and presidential hopeful Rick Perry stated that this was an entirely inadequate response, and said that a falling death satellite could have devastating effects on the economy. He ended on a hopeful note, however, suggesting that the danger from the satellite might well be overblown. "We should remember," Perry stated to a cheering crowd of Republicans, "that gravity is, after all, only a theory."
Okay, maybe I'm being a little unfair, here; it's not like there's really anything they can do at this point. If they'd gotten on the stick a little earlier, they might have been able to shoot the satellite down, which is what they did the last time this happened. Of course, this was during the presidency of George "Git 'Er Done" Bush, whose entire foreign policy was, quote, "YEEEEEE-HAWWWW!", and who seemed to think that "Blast the crap out of it" was an appropriate response to damn near everything. In that case, however, it actually worked, and the satellite was blown into pieces small enough to burn up in the atmosphere. But it's too late to attempt anything like that this time, so all we can do now is sit back and wait. As one NASA official put it, and unlike the previous quotes, I'm not making this one up, "If you're near the impact site, you'll be in for a nice fireworks show as it breaks up on descent."
Well, isn't that a lovely thought! We might even be able to appreciate the pretty lights for several seconds before we get flattened. And it's not like the "breaking up on descent" part makes it any better; instead of one big chunk o' metal, we'll now have a hundred slightly smaller chunks o' metal. It's not like all 26 tons of satellite are going to vaporize, Star Trek style, into a cloud of dust.
And no one, as far as I've heard, has questioned the wisdom of putting the damn things up there in the first place. You'd think that the folks at NASA would have heard of the concept of air resistance, wherein drag with the atmosphere (thin as it is up there) eventually causes the orbits of all satellites to decay. Apparently not, given the fact that every time we send a rocket up, we basically put another piece of space junk into high orbit. All that stuff will, sooner or later, come crashing down. But fear not; it probably won't be for a long while for most of them, and the Earth's a big place. As far as this Friday's event, the chance that anyone's house will get hit by a falling satellite part is only "one in 3,200."
Nevertheless, I'm keeping my eye on the sky on Friday. I won't have time to run if I'm in the bullseye, but at least I won't get caught unawares.
Which, now that I come to think of it, isn't all that much consolation.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Face off
In the third of our series on Giving Woo-Woo Explanations For Every Damn Thing You See, we have:  chance resemblances proving that famous people are actually Evil Undead Creatures of the Night.
I was looking through the news yesterday, and I came across the story of a Civil War era photograph from Tennessee being offered at auction. What's unusual about it is that the owner is hoping someone will pay a million dollars for it. By now, you're probably pretty curious about it, so without further ado, here's the photograph:
So, I'm thinking, "Why would anyone pay a million dollars for this?" So I looked closer, and saw that the guy in the photograph does look kind of like Nicolas Cage. This made me go, "Huh. Why would anyone spend a million dollars for a photo just because it looks a little like Nicolas Cage?"
But that's not what the owner claims. The owner claims that it is Nicolas Cage. Here's the advertisement for the item in the auction:
*brief pause to pound my head on the desk*
Of course, this isn't the first time this sort of thing has been claimed. You may not know it, but Keanu Reeves is also one of the undead, and I'm not referring to the fact that he only seems to be capable of a single facial expression:
Yes, folks, this painting by the 19th century French painter Louis-Maurice Boutet de Monvel is actually of the star of The Matrix. You'd think it would be hard to persuade an evil immortal vampire to sit still long enough to have his portrait painted. Oh, well, I guess if you're The One, you can do whatever the hell you want.
Then, there's the claim that Shia LaBeouf is an immortal, shapeshifting clone (see the YouTube video here). I think this one may be a joke, but honestly, who can tell? As far as I can see the Nicolas Cage and Keanu Reeves claims are dead serious, so by comparison, the LaBeouf thing is maybe one notch more ridiculous, and still not as generally stupid as (for example) the claim made earlier this year that Han Solo had crashed the Millennium Falcon into the Baltic Sea, where it was later found by some intrepid Swedish treasure hunters.
The whole thing kind of makes me crazy, mostly because I feel sure that today I'll have at least one student ask me today, "Did you hear that they found a photograph of Nicolas Cage from the Civil War?" causing various other students to say, "Dude, that's amazing," or words to that effect, and I'm going to have to exert a heroic effort not to say something extremely snarky.
I was looking through the news yesterday, and I came across the story of a Civil War era photograph from Tennessee being offered at auction. What's unusual about it is that the owner is hoping someone will pay a million dollars for it. By now, you're probably pretty curious about it, so without further ado, here's the photograph:
So, I'm thinking, "Why would anyone pay a million dollars for this?" So I looked closer, and saw that the guy in the photograph does look kind of like Nicolas Cage. This made me go, "Huh. Why would anyone spend a million dollars for a photo just because it looks a little like Nicolas Cage?"
But that's not what the owner claims. The owner claims that it is Nicolas Cage. Here's the advertisement for the item in the auction:
Original c.1870 carte de visite showing a man who looks exactly like Nick Cage. Personally, I believe it's him and that he is some sort of walking undead / vampire, et cetera, who quickens / reinvents himself once every 75 years or so. 150 years from now, he might be a politician, the leader of a cult, or a talk show host. This is not a trick photo of any kind and has not been manipulated in Photoshop or any other graphics program.Oh, okay. That makes sense. Nicolas Cage is lying about having been born in California in 1964. All of this stuff about his being the nephew of Francis Ford Coppola is also a lie. Childhood photographs that you find on his fan site? They're of some other kid. It makes far more sense that he is an immortal vampire who lived in Tennessee during the Civil War.
*brief pause to pound my head on the desk*
Of course, this isn't the first time this sort of thing has been claimed. You may not know it, but Keanu Reeves is also one of the undead, and I'm not referring to the fact that he only seems to be capable of a single facial expression:
Yes, folks, this painting by the 19th century French painter Louis-Maurice Boutet de Monvel is actually of the star of The Matrix. You'd think it would be hard to persuade an evil immortal vampire to sit still long enough to have his portrait painted. Oh, well, I guess if you're The One, you can do whatever the hell you want.
Then, there's the claim that Shia LaBeouf is an immortal, shapeshifting clone (see the YouTube video here). I think this one may be a joke, but honestly, who can tell? As far as I can see the Nicolas Cage and Keanu Reeves claims are dead serious, so by comparison, the LaBeouf thing is maybe one notch more ridiculous, and still not as generally stupid as (for example) the claim made earlier this year that Han Solo had crashed the Millennium Falcon into the Baltic Sea, where it was later found by some intrepid Swedish treasure hunters.
The whole thing kind of makes me crazy, mostly because I feel sure that today I'll have at least one student ask me today, "Did you hear that they found a photograph of Nicolas Cage from the Civil War?" causing various other students to say, "Dude, that's amazing," or words to that effect, and I'm going to have to exert a heroic effort not to say something extremely snarky.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
In the dark
To further investigate yesterday's topic of people wanting to give woo-woo explanations to everything, today we investigate:  The Dark.
First, a brief physics lesson.
Things are generally called "dark" for one of two reasons. First, there are objects whose chemical makeup results in their absorbing most of the light that falls on them. Second, there are things that don't interact with light much at all, so they neither absorb nor reflect light -- light passes right through them. An example of the first would be a charcoal briquet. An example of the second would be interstellar space, which is sort of dark-by-default.
This whole thing comes up because of the recent discovery of an extrasolar planet, with the mellifluous name TrES-2b. TrES-2b orbits the even more charmingly named GSC 03549-02811, a star about 718 light years away. TrES-2b has the distinction of being the darkest extrasolar planet yet discovered. David Kipping, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, stated, "TrES-2b is considerably less reflective than black acrylic paint, so it is truly an alien world."
That was all it took. Whereas my reaction was, "Huh! A Jupiter-sized charcoal briquet! That's kinda cool," the woo-woos just couldn't resist wooing all over this story. We now have the following speculations, all from websites owned by people who probably shouldn't be allowed outside unsupervised:
The first two explanations left me with a giant bruise on my forehead from doing a faceplant while reading. At the risk of insulting my readers' intelligence, let me just say quickly that (1) antimatter's "opposite properties" have nothing to do with regular matter being light and antimatter being dark, because if it did, the next time a kindergartner pulled a black crayon out of the box, he would explode in a burst of gamma rays; and (2) "dark matter" is called "dark" because of the second reason, that it doesn't interact with much of anything, including light, so the idea of a planet made of it is kind of ridiculous, and in any case physicists haven't even proved that it exists, so if some astrophysicist found a whole freakin' planet made of it it would KIND OF MAKE HEADLINES, YOU KNOW?
Sorry for getting carried away, there. But I will reiterate something I have said more than once, in this blog; if you're going to start blathering on about science, for cryin' in the sink at least get the science right. Even the least scientific woo-woo out there can read the Wikipedia page for "Dark Matter," for example, wherein we find that the first line is, "In astronomy and cosmology, dark matter is matter that neither emits nor scatters light or other electromagnetic radiation, and so cannot be directly detected via optical or radio astronomy." (Italics mine, and put in so that any of the aforementioned woo-woos who are reading this post will focus on the important part.)
And I won't even address the "secret alien base" and "hell" theories regarding TrES-2b, except to say that it should come as a relief that the evil aliens or Satan (depending on which version you went for) are safely 718 light years away. To put this in perspective, this means that if they were heading here in the fastest spacecraft humans have ever created, Voyager 1, which travels at about 16 kilometers per second -- it would still take them eleven million years to get here.
In any case, I guess it's all a matter of how you view what's around you. I find the universe, and therefore science, endlessly fascinating, because what scientists have uncovered is weird, wonderful, and counter-intuitive. I don't need to start attaching all sorts of anti-scientific bunk to their discoveries -- nature is cool enough as it is.
Okay, thus endeth today's rant. I will simply end with an admonishment to be careful next time you barbeque. I hear those charcoal briquets can be made of antimatter, which could make your next cook-out a dicey affair. You might want to wear gloves while you handle them. Better safe than sorry!
First, a brief physics lesson.
Things are generally called "dark" for one of two reasons. First, there are objects whose chemical makeup results in their absorbing most of the light that falls on them. Second, there are things that don't interact with light much at all, so they neither absorb nor reflect light -- light passes right through them. An example of the first would be a charcoal briquet. An example of the second would be interstellar space, which is sort of dark-by-default.
This whole thing comes up because of the recent discovery of an extrasolar planet, with the mellifluous name TrES-2b. TrES-2b orbits the even more charmingly named GSC 03549-02811, a star about 718 light years away. TrES-2b has the distinction of being the darkest extrasolar planet yet discovered. David Kipping, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, stated, "TrES-2b is considerably less reflective than black acrylic paint, so it is truly an alien world."
That was all it took. Whereas my reaction was, "Huh! A Jupiter-sized charcoal briquet! That's kinda cool," the woo-woos just couldn't resist wooing all over this story. We now have the following speculations, all from websites owned by people who probably shouldn't be allowed outside unsupervised:
- TrES-2b is made of antimatter, and we shouldn't go there because it would blow up. We know it's antimatter because antimatter has the opposite properties to matter, so it's dark.
- TrES-2b is made of "dark matter," and yes, they're not just talking about stuff that's black, they're talking about the physicists' "dark matter," about which I'll have more to say in a moment.
- TrES-2b is dark because it's being hidden by aliens who are currently on their way to Earth to take over. Lucky for us we spotted it in time!
- TrES-2b is hell. No, I'm not making this up.
The first two explanations left me with a giant bruise on my forehead from doing a faceplant while reading. At the risk of insulting my readers' intelligence, let me just say quickly that (1) antimatter's "opposite properties" have nothing to do with regular matter being light and antimatter being dark, because if it did, the next time a kindergartner pulled a black crayon out of the box, he would explode in a burst of gamma rays; and (2) "dark matter" is called "dark" because of the second reason, that it doesn't interact with much of anything, including light, so the idea of a planet made of it is kind of ridiculous, and in any case physicists haven't even proved that it exists, so if some astrophysicist found a whole freakin' planet made of it it would KIND OF MAKE HEADLINES, YOU KNOW?
Sorry for getting carried away, there. But I will reiterate something I have said more than once, in this blog; if you're going to start blathering on about science, for cryin' in the sink at least get the science right. Even the least scientific woo-woo out there can read the Wikipedia page for "Dark Matter," for example, wherein we find that the first line is, "In astronomy and cosmology, dark matter is matter that neither emits nor scatters light or other electromagnetic radiation, and so cannot be directly detected via optical or radio astronomy." (Italics mine, and put in so that any of the aforementioned woo-woos who are reading this post will focus on the important part.)
And I won't even address the "secret alien base" and "hell" theories regarding TrES-2b, except to say that it should come as a relief that the evil aliens or Satan (depending on which version you went for) are safely 718 light years away. To put this in perspective, this means that if they were heading here in the fastest spacecraft humans have ever created, Voyager 1, which travels at about 16 kilometers per second -- it would still take them eleven million years to get here.
In any case, I guess it's all a matter of how you view what's around you. I find the universe, and therefore science, endlessly fascinating, because what scientists have uncovered is weird, wonderful, and counter-intuitive. I don't need to start attaching all sorts of anti-scientific bunk to their discoveries -- nature is cool enough as it is.
Okay, thus endeth today's rant. I will simply end with an admonishment to be careful next time you barbeque. I hear those charcoal briquets can be made of antimatter, which could make your next cook-out a dicey affair. You might want to wear gloves while you handle them. Better safe than sorry!
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