Everyone loves a good correlation. Our brains are outstanding pattern-finders; we are very good at picking patterns out of the sensory input that bombards us constantly, so good that we sometimes invent patterns where there is nothing there but some random array (numerology and pareidolia are two excellent examples of this).
There's a second problem, though, and that is that although our brains are pretty good at finding patterns, they're not nearly as good at determining what those patterns mean. Presented with a correlation, we're quick to assume that there's a causation present -- especially if the relationship seems to support something we already thought was true.
Take, for example, the following table, that has been making the rounds of liberal websites this week:
The statistics given -- the percent of adults 25 years or older who have a college degree -- correlates strongly with which of the two presidential candidates the state went for. The states with the highest percentage of college graduates went for Obama; the ones with the lowest went for Romney. And of course, the crowing on the liberal websites was loud and long, and mostly to the effect of "Ha! We're smarter! We knew it!"
The problem is, is this really what this table shows? What we have here is a correlation; that Democrats actually are smarter, or that being smarter caused you to vote Democrat, very much remains to be seen. I can think of three other explanations for the data without even trying hard. (1) A college education is also correlated to having a higher-paying, more stable job; the message about Obama being weak on jobs resonated more with the people with fewer marketable credentials. (2) The lack of diplomas from colleges, and tendency to vote Republican, in the right hand list are both caused by a second factor; a higher adherence to evangelical religion in those states. (3) Going to college brainwashes you into becoming a Democrat; colleges are frequently accused of being hotbeds of liberalism.
Which is it? Or is it something different still? I think you can see that establishing what caused the pattern is a lot harder than seeing the pattern in the first place. But when someone finds a pattern that seems to suggest something we already believed, it's easier just to jump to a causation when one has yet to be established. (Especially when the conclusion is, "Boy, aren't we smart?" Psychological studies have been done that have shown that nearly everyone thinks (s)he is above average in intelligence, something that has been nicknamed the Lake Wobegon Effect.)
Now, to be sure, patterns like this certainly do demand an explanation; saying "correlation does not imply causation" and then forthwith giving up thinking is lazy. Something is going on here that needs explaining. And as Daniel Engber, in his wonderful piece "The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase," put it, "Correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint." Whatever the reason behind the pattern in the table -- whether it is true that Democrats, on average, are smarter than Republicans, or one of my three alternate explanations is correct, or that some combination of those reasons is responsible, or that it is caused by something else entirely -- it certainly is a question that should be of interest to sociologists and political scientists. What it is not is a reason for the liberals to go "Woo hoo!" and then stop thinking.
Because, of course, that one is not the only correlation that is out there. How about this one, that made the rounds after the 2008 election:
Yes, the red state/blue state split correlates almost perfectly with another statistic, the number of breweries per capita. I can see it now -- conservatives claiming that the election was invalid, that people who voted for Obama in the blue states actually meant to vote for Romney but screwed up their ballots because they were drunk.
Skeptophilia (skep-to-fil-i-a) (n.) - the love of logical thought, skepticism, and thinking critically. Being an exploration of the applications of skeptical thinking to the world at large, with periodic excursions into linguistics, music, politics, cryptozoology, and why people keep seeing the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Telehealing
I have a commitment to the truth, and I try never to let other considerations (money, power, pride, personal gain) trump that commitment. It's why I have made the statement in Skeptophilia more than once; if you can show me that anything I've written here is demonstrably wrong, and have the facts to back you up, I will happily print a retraction.
That isn't to say that sometimes I'm not sorely tempted to lie. I'm only human, after all. In fact, today's post is about a guy whose moneymaking idea is so inspired, so completely brilliant, that I wish I'd thought of it first. Had I done so... well, let's just leave it at "I hope I'd have done the right thing."
Meet Michael Mohoric, who runs Qigong Energy Healing. Now, I'm sure you've heard of Qigong before; it's the same old tired "revitalize your aura and realign your chakras" stuff, and his site is full of our favorite words "vibration" and "frequency" and "energy." But most Qigong practitioners at least make a show of having their clients show up in their offices, and then lie down while the practitioner waves his/her hands around or does whatever it takes to manipulate an essentially nonexistent "energy field." Mr. Mohoric, on the other hand, has gone the next logical step -- he does the whole thing long-distance.
For a monthly subscription fee of $99, Mr. Mohoric will "send you energy" once a week. "I feel that this series of energy transmissions can be life transforming for many people," he tells us on his website. "Although one session can often provide dramatic results, multiple sessions can deepen the energy work and get to deep-seated core issues. By receiving energy for a full month, the energy will continue to work deeper and be able to address long held patterns and anchor the changes. When one has had an energetic pattern for many years, it can take time to release and cancel the pattern and move it out of one’s energy field."
For your $99 a month, he will do a "long-distance healing session" and "energy adjustment" once a week, sending out a "major energy transmission" every Wednesday night. He suggests meditating at that time so you can pick up his signal, but you don't need to worry if you forget to tune in; he says you'll get the energy anyhow, and there's a testimonial from a guy who forgot and then started feeling really energized on Wednesday night, and suddenly remembered what was happening. "The energy is intelligent and will work with you individually to give you personalized attention to your specific energetic needs," Mr. Mohoric writes.
Oh, yeah, and for another $39 he'll energize your pets long-distance, too.
Well, let's see; we have confirmation bias, dart-thrower's bias, misuse of scientific terminology, and the placebo effect going on here. Have I missed any?
That said, don't you think it's a brilliant idea? What a job! You maintain a website, get people to subscribe to your services not just one time only, but for a monthly fee, and in return, you work one night a week. Assuming he really is doing anything on Wednesday nights. Doesn't this sound like the career of a lifetime? Even if you really believe that what you are doing is real -- and however outlandish it sounds, he appears to be sincere -- the sum total of your job is to sit there for an hour on Wednesday evening and beam out some "energy" to your customers. Doesn't matter if it gets there or not; he has the usual disclaimer at the bottom of the page that he is "not making a medical claim" and that "all healing is self-healing" and that "like any modality, it won't work for everyone." The rest of the week you can sleep in late, go for a run, play with your dog, take a nap in the hammock, whatever floats your boat.
Given that I'm shortly to get myself together and spend the day attempting to educate savage hordes of teenagers, that kind of life sounds pretty awesome.
Of course, there's just this one teensy problem, and that's that commitment-to-the-truth thing I was mentioning earlier. Given that controlled scientific studies have never found a shred of evidence for the existence of chakras, energy meridians, or the rest of it (for a nice summary of the studies that have been done in this regard, go here), I couldn't in good conscience take your money when I knew that what I was accomplishing was precisely nothing.
Well, okay, how about this as an idea? You send me $99 a month ($39 additional if you want me to include your pets), and every Tuesday night I'll think about you in a scientific way. I'll picture you thinking critically, using scientifically-sound logic, and being rational, and applying those skills to your everyday life. I'll ponder how much more clearly you'll think if you can accomplish those goals. Okay, I know that my thinking about you won't make you change, but I promise I'll do it faithfully. Ready to sign up for my service?
No?
Oh, well, it was worth a shot. Truth always comes at a cost, I suppose.
That isn't to say that sometimes I'm not sorely tempted to lie. I'm only human, after all. In fact, today's post is about a guy whose moneymaking idea is so inspired, so completely brilliant, that I wish I'd thought of it first. Had I done so... well, let's just leave it at "I hope I'd have done the right thing."
Meet Michael Mohoric, who runs Qigong Energy Healing. Now, I'm sure you've heard of Qigong before; it's the same old tired "revitalize your aura and realign your chakras" stuff, and his site is full of our favorite words "vibration" and "frequency" and "energy." But most Qigong practitioners at least make a show of having their clients show up in their offices, and then lie down while the practitioner waves his/her hands around or does whatever it takes to manipulate an essentially nonexistent "energy field." Mr. Mohoric, on the other hand, has gone the next logical step -- he does the whole thing long-distance.
For a monthly subscription fee of $99, Mr. Mohoric will "send you energy" once a week. "I feel that this series of energy transmissions can be life transforming for many people," he tells us on his website. "Although one session can often provide dramatic results, multiple sessions can deepen the energy work and get to deep-seated core issues. By receiving energy for a full month, the energy will continue to work deeper and be able to address long held patterns and anchor the changes. When one has had an energetic pattern for many years, it can take time to release and cancel the pattern and move it out of one’s energy field."
For your $99 a month, he will do a "long-distance healing session" and "energy adjustment" once a week, sending out a "major energy transmission" every Wednesday night. He suggests meditating at that time so you can pick up his signal, but you don't need to worry if you forget to tune in; he says you'll get the energy anyhow, and there's a testimonial from a guy who forgot and then started feeling really energized on Wednesday night, and suddenly remembered what was happening. "The energy is intelligent and will work with you individually to give you personalized attention to your specific energetic needs," Mr. Mohoric writes.
Oh, yeah, and for another $39 he'll energize your pets long-distance, too.
Well, let's see; we have confirmation bias, dart-thrower's bias, misuse of scientific terminology, and the placebo effect going on here. Have I missed any?
That said, don't you think it's a brilliant idea? What a job! You maintain a website, get people to subscribe to your services not just one time only, but for a monthly fee, and in return, you work one night a week. Assuming he really is doing anything on Wednesday nights. Doesn't this sound like the career of a lifetime? Even if you really believe that what you are doing is real -- and however outlandish it sounds, he appears to be sincere -- the sum total of your job is to sit there for an hour on Wednesday evening and beam out some "energy" to your customers. Doesn't matter if it gets there or not; he has the usual disclaimer at the bottom of the page that he is "not making a medical claim" and that "all healing is self-healing" and that "like any modality, it won't work for everyone." The rest of the week you can sleep in late, go for a run, play with your dog, take a nap in the hammock, whatever floats your boat.
Given that I'm shortly to get myself together and spend the day attempting to educate savage hordes of teenagers, that kind of life sounds pretty awesome.
Of course, there's just this one teensy problem, and that's that commitment-to-the-truth thing I was mentioning earlier. Given that controlled scientific studies have never found a shred of evidence for the existence of chakras, energy meridians, or the rest of it (for a nice summary of the studies that have been done in this regard, go here), I couldn't in good conscience take your money when I knew that what I was accomplishing was precisely nothing.
Well, okay, how about this as an idea? You send me $99 a month ($39 additional if you want me to include your pets), and every Tuesday night I'll think about you in a scientific way. I'll picture you thinking critically, using scientifically-sound logic, and being rational, and applying those skills to your everyday life. I'll ponder how much more clearly you'll think if you can accomplish those goals. Okay, I know that my thinking about you won't make you change, but I promise I'll do it faithfully. Ready to sign up for my service?
No?
Oh, well, it was worth a shot. Truth always comes at a cost, I suppose.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
The creationists target Indiana
Well, here we go again.
Dr. Eugenie C. Scott, director of the National Center for Science Education, has once again put rationalist Americans on high alert that a state legislator is planning to give a go to at undermining public schools' teaching of biology.
Dennis Kruse (R-Indiana) has announced plans to introduce a bill into legislation drafted by none other than our friends in the Discovery Institute, who have listed amongst their stated goals:
Kruse, for his part, is serious about this. He pledged when elected to remove evolution from state science standards, and publicly stated, "I'd guess that 80% of Indiana would be oriented with the bible and creation." No equivocation there, is there? No mealy-mouthed "teach the controversy" nonsense. Nope, just good, old-fashioned young-earth literalism, designed to further hack away at the state of science education in the United States. It's no wonder there are so many international students in US college science programs, given our determination as a nation to destroy the underpinnings of science teaching in American high schools.
It's to be hoped that the legislators will handle this sensibly (well, in my opinion, "sensibly" would include laughing directly in Kruse's face, but I'm not optimistic enough to hope for that). Kruse has attempted this sort of thing before, and failed, the last time because the legislature refused to vote and the bill died when they adjourned -- a remarkably spineless way to handle things, and one which doesn't bode well for the future.
The whole thing makes me despair a little. Of course, that's what Kruse et al. want; to wear down the opposition, to make them give up out of sheer exhaustion. I don't think they reckon with the likes of Dr. Scott, however, who doesn't strike me as the capitulating sort. I think her attitude can much better be summed up in the immortal words of Captain Mathazar from Galaxy Quest: "Never give up, never surrender."
Dr. Eugenie C. Scott, director of the National Center for Science Education, has once again put rationalist Americans on high alert that a state legislator is planning to give a go to at undermining public schools' teaching of biology.
Dennis Kruse (R-Indiana) has announced plans to introduce a bill into legislation drafted by none other than our friends in the Discovery Institute, who have listed amongst their stated goals:
Scientific research and experimentation have produced staggering advances in our knowledge about the natural world, but they have also led to increasing abuse of science as the so-called “new atheists” have enlisted science to promote a materialistic worldview, to deny human freedom and dignity and to smother free inquiry. Our Center for Science and Culture works to defend free inquiry. It also seeks to counter the materialistic interpretation of science by demonstrating that life and the universe are the products of intelligent design and by challenging the materialistic conception of a self-existent, self-organizing universe and the Darwinian view that life developed through a blind and purposeless process.Lest my more optimistic (and scientific) readers think this won't have a chance, such efforts have already been successful in Louisiana (2008) and Tennessee (2012). Inevitably it takes the form of some sort of "teach the controversy" argument -- as if instructing students in the findings of valid, peer-reviewed, evidence-supported science represents some kind of satanic indoctrination. Interesting, too, that no one ever suggests "teaching the controversy" in, for example, chemistry, inducing chemistry teachers to spend a few weeks discussing alchemy -- despite the fact that the findings of evolutionary biologists are no more controversial in scientific circles than those of the chemists. Oh, and isn't it odd that it seems to be only people who are poorly educated in biological science who think there's a controversy? (Wait, that's probably just because we biologists were "indoctrinated" ourselves. Never mind.)
Kruse, for his part, is serious about this. He pledged when elected to remove evolution from state science standards, and publicly stated, "I'd guess that 80% of Indiana would be oriented with the bible and creation." No equivocation there, is there? No mealy-mouthed "teach the controversy" nonsense. Nope, just good, old-fashioned young-earth literalism, designed to further hack away at the state of science education in the United States. It's no wonder there are so many international students in US college science programs, given our determination as a nation to destroy the underpinnings of science teaching in American high schools.
It's to be hoped that the legislators will handle this sensibly (well, in my opinion, "sensibly" would include laughing directly in Kruse's face, but I'm not optimistic enough to hope for that). Kruse has attempted this sort of thing before, and failed, the last time because the legislature refused to vote and the bill died when they adjourned -- a remarkably spineless way to handle things, and one which doesn't bode well for the future.
The whole thing makes me despair a little. Of course, that's what Kruse et al. want; to wear down the opposition, to make them give up out of sheer exhaustion. I don't think they reckon with the likes of Dr. Scott, however, who doesn't strike me as the capitulating sort. I think her attitude can much better be summed up in the immortal words of Captain Mathazar from Galaxy Quest: "Never give up, never surrender."
Monday, November 12, 2012
News, slant, and the Weeping Jesus of Huntsville
One of the points I make repeatedly in my Critical Thinking classes is that there is no such thing as unbiased media. Every media has slant. Even the decision to say "this is news" and "this is not news, don't show/print this" represents a bias -- they are deciding for you what is important for you to hear. This is not to say that you shouldn't believe anything you read, hear, or see on public media, but it does mean that you can't just watch with your brain shut off.
Of course, not everyone approaches it this way, which is why it really pisses me off when a professional media outlet prints (and televises) stuff like this article, entitled "'Black Jesus' Draws Mystery To Visitors At Historic Cemetery."
In this story, we hear about the early 20th century sculpture "The Comforting Christ," which stands in historic Oakwood Cemetery in Huntsville, Texas. The statue was commissioned by Judge Benjamin Powell and his wife in honor of their son, who had died young during a botched surgery. The statue, made of bronze, has darkened to near black by the effects of weathering. It is clearly an imposing figure in the quiet cemetery.
But the story isn't about a historically interesting piece of art work, nor about a public figure's grief over losing a child, nor even about how the beauty of a local churchyard attracts visitors. No, this story is about...
... spirits.
And hauntings. And the fact that the Jesus statue sometimes cries, sometimes its eyes open, and sometimes its hands, which normally face downwards, turn palm up. And even at this point, the people at KVUE and KHOU who did this story could have to some extent salvaged it, by focusing on how people are sometimes primed by their emotions and fears to believe bizarre, counterfactual stuff.
But no. The reporters and writers leapt right into this big ol' vat of woo-woo, and called out their own "investigators" who came there, armed with divining rods and a "paranormal activity meter." The rods and the meter, the "investigators" said, showed clearly that the ghost of Rawley Powell was present. The "investigators" asked Rawley's ghost if the statue's hands would turn upward that night, and Rawley answered yes. However, evidently he got his ghostly wires crossed, because the reporters and "investigators" stayed there all evening, and nothing happened... although the "paranormal activity meter registered a spike."
Oooh. My little heart is just going thumpety-thump.
I'm sorry, folks at KVUE and KHOU, this is not a news story. It's not even a human interest story. This is a story about suckering the credulous. None of the alleged antics of the Jesus statue -- opening and closing eyes, weeping, moving hands -- has the least bit of supporting evidence other than the usual "my aunt's best friend's daughter saw it happen." (James Patton of the Walker County Historical Commission called the claims "ridiculous.") Controlled tests of divining rods have repeatedly failed (see an excellent summary of those studies here); evidence of ghosts is sketchy at best, although (as I have said before) there are some suggestive bits of evidence here and there regarding hauntings. It would certainly take more than someone swinging around some divining rods and claiming that the "paranormal activity meter" pegged the needle to convince me that there was anything going on.
But of course, that's not how the news sources presented it, is it? A quick mention of Patton's dismissive comment was the only skeptical statement in the entire article; in fact, just the idea that KVUE and KHOU themselves invited "paranormal investigators" out lends an unwarranted credibility to the whole thing.
So, all of this further reinforces my impression that what sells sponsorship to news agencies isn't veracity, or even good reporting; it's "whatever the public will buy." Meaning that as always, a good skeptic's motto should be caveat emptor.
Of course, not everyone approaches it this way, which is why it really pisses me off when a professional media outlet prints (and televises) stuff like this article, entitled "'Black Jesus' Draws Mystery To Visitors At Historic Cemetery."
In this story, we hear about the early 20th century sculpture "The Comforting Christ," which stands in historic Oakwood Cemetery in Huntsville, Texas. The statue was commissioned by Judge Benjamin Powell and his wife in honor of their son, who had died young during a botched surgery. The statue, made of bronze, has darkened to near black by the effects of weathering. It is clearly an imposing figure in the quiet cemetery.
But the story isn't about a historically interesting piece of art work, nor about a public figure's grief over losing a child, nor even about how the beauty of a local churchyard attracts visitors. No, this story is about...
... spirits.
And hauntings. And the fact that the Jesus statue sometimes cries, sometimes its eyes open, and sometimes its hands, which normally face downwards, turn palm up. And even at this point, the people at KVUE and KHOU who did this story could have to some extent salvaged it, by focusing on how people are sometimes primed by their emotions and fears to believe bizarre, counterfactual stuff.
But no. The reporters and writers leapt right into this big ol' vat of woo-woo, and called out their own "investigators" who came there, armed with divining rods and a "paranormal activity meter." The rods and the meter, the "investigators" said, showed clearly that the ghost of Rawley Powell was present. The "investigators" asked Rawley's ghost if the statue's hands would turn upward that night, and Rawley answered yes. However, evidently he got his ghostly wires crossed, because the reporters and "investigators" stayed there all evening, and nothing happened... although the "paranormal activity meter registered a spike."
Oooh. My little heart is just going thumpety-thump.
I'm sorry, folks at KVUE and KHOU, this is not a news story. It's not even a human interest story. This is a story about suckering the credulous. None of the alleged antics of the Jesus statue -- opening and closing eyes, weeping, moving hands -- has the least bit of supporting evidence other than the usual "my aunt's best friend's daughter saw it happen." (James Patton of the Walker County Historical Commission called the claims "ridiculous.") Controlled tests of divining rods have repeatedly failed (see an excellent summary of those studies here); evidence of ghosts is sketchy at best, although (as I have said before) there are some suggestive bits of evidence here and there regarding hauntings. It would certainly take more than someone swinging around some divining rods and claiming that the "paranormal activity meter" pegged the needle to convince me that there was anything going on.
But of course, that's not how the news sources presented it, is it? A quick mention of Patton's dismissive comment was the only skeptical statement in the entire article; in fact, just the idea that KVUE and KHOU themselves invited "paranormal investigators" out lends an unwarranted credibility to the whole thing.
So, all of this further reinforces my impression that what sells sponsorship to news agencies isn't veracity, or even good reporting; it's "whatever the public will buy." Meaning that as always, a good skeptic's motto should be caveat emptor.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Source credibility and the legalization of marijuana
A particularly subtle problem in establishing whether a claim is pseudoscience, or at least flawed, has to do with source credibility. Note that I didn't say credentials; there are plenty of smart, well-read, logical people with no degree in the field in question, and whose arguments I would consider carefully, and I've met more than one Ph.D. who gave every evidence of being a raving wackmobile.
Credibility is a different thing than a piece of paper with some Latin hanging on your wall. It has to do with establishing that you understand the basics of rational argumentation, that you are familiar with the fundamental principles of science, and that you don't have a particular vested interest or agenda.
A particularly good example of this came my way yesterday, in the form of a New York Times editorial piece written by Dr. Ed Gogek, entitled "A Bad Trip for Democrats." The gist of the article is that the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and Washington last week is a terrible idea. His arguments:
I'm also skeptical of his suggestion that claims of chronic pain are being used as excuses to obtain marijuana. While in one sense he is right -- it's impossible to prove, or disprove, that someone is in pain -- the idea that a significant number of patients who claim to be in chronic pain are lying remains very much to be seen.
However, even with all of those questions about Gogek's statements, I would not have been prompted to write about him on Skeptophilia if it hadn't been for one additional thing I discovered about him:
Dr. Gogek is a homeopath.
He doesn't state that anywhere in his piece; at the end, his bio statement says, "Dr. Ed Gogek is an addiction psychiatrist and a board member of Keep AZ Drug Free." But whenever I have questions about a study -- or even a brief editorial, like this one -- I always want to find out what the writer's background is, to see how credible a source (s)he is. And lo and behold, a quick search brought me to Dr. Gogek's homepage, wherein he makes the following statement:
Now, please note that the immediate loss of scientific credibility that this engenders doesn't mean that Dr. Gogek's original argument was entirely wrong (any more than a Ph.D. means a person is always right). But it does tell me one thing; he has a serious difficulty with looking at a body of evidence, and concluding correctly whether that body of evidence supports a particular conclusion. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands, of controlled, double-blind experiments testing homeopathy, and not one has produced any clinically relevant results. Not one. The fact that he is unaware of this, or perhaps ignoring it or rationalizing it away, makes me look at other conclusions he draws with a wry eye.
Now, as far as the legalization of marijuana, please understand; I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not a user, and have no intent to become one. I do find it curious that tobacco, which is clearly a more dangerous drug, is not only legal, but federally subsidized, while marijuana possession can land you in jail in most states; but that isn't the only weird internal contradiction in our legal code. What I do want to make abundantly clear, however, is that when something appears in print -- even in The New York Times -- it is always worthwhile to check source credibility. Things, as Buttercup points out in H.M.S. Pinafore, are seldom what they seem.
Credibility is a different thing than a piece of paper with some Latin hanging on your wall. It has to do with establishing that you understand the basics of rational argumentation, that you are familiar with the fundamental principles of science, and that you don't have a particular vested interest or agenda.
A particularly good example of this came my way yesterday, in the form of a New York Times editorial piece written by Dr. Ed Gogek, entitled "A Bad Trip for Democrats." The gist of the article is that the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and Washington last week is a terrible idea. His arguments:
- 90-some-odd percent of patients who have been prescribed medical marijuana received it to alleviate pain. Pain, Gogek says, is "easy to fake and almost impossible to disprove." Further, chronic pain patients are mostly female, while 74% of marijuana users are male.
- Medical use of marijuana for glaucoma is no longer recommended.
- Marijuana is addictive, despite claims that it's not.
- Use of marijuana lowers cognitive function.
In effect, America now has two tea parties: on the left they smoke their tea; on the right they throw it in Boston Harbor. Both distrust government, disregard science and make selfish demands that would undermine the public good.Now, let me be up front about the fact that I am not a pharmacologist, and am not qualified to evaluate the soundness of clinical studies of the efficacy of THC for treating glaucoma. I do know enough neuroscience, however, to doubt his claims that marijuana is addictive; most addictive substances create addiction one of two ways, either by activating the brain's dopamine-loop pathway (such as cocaine) or by creating a rebound effect if you stop (such as heroin). Marijuana does neither, so I have a hard time seeing how it could be addictive in the strict sense of the word.
I'm also skeptical of his suggestion that claims of chronic pain are being used as excuses to obtain marijuana. While in one sense he is right -- it's impossible to prove, or disprove, that someone is in pain -- the idea that a significant number of patients who claim to be in chronic pain are lying remains very much to be seen.
However, even with all of those questions about Gogek's statements, I would not have been prompted to write about him on Skeptophilia if it hadn't been for one additional thing I discovered about him:
Dr. Gogek is a homeopath.
He doesn't state that anywhere in his piece; at the end, his bio statement says, "Dr. Ed Gogek is an addiction psychiatrist and a board member of Keep AZ Drug Free." But whenever I have questions about a study -- or even a brief editorial, like this one -- I always want to find out what the writer's background is, to see how credible a source (s)he is. And lo and behold, a quick search brought me to Dr. Gogek's homepage, wherein he makes the following statement:
Many people think homeopathy refers to all forms of alternative medicine, but it’s actually one specific type of alternative practice, very different from nutrition and herbs. Classical homeopathy works well for most medical and psychiatric problems. For people in psychotherapy or suffering from addictions, it removes roadblocks, and speeds the recovery process. And the right homeopathic remedy will also transform marriages and other significant relationships. Nothing heals and transforms a person’s life like the right homeopathic remedy.My immediate reaction was, "And you're lecturing other people about disregarding science?"
In my experience, homeopathy can help all psychiatric problems except ADHD and schizophrenia. However, it works exceptionally well for anxiety disorders (panic attacks, social anxiety, specific phobias, PTSD and OCD), bulimia, sex and love addiction, and anger. It’s also very helpful for personality disorders and unusual problems that defy easy diagnosis.
Now, please note that the immediate loss of scientific credibility that this engenders doesn't mean that Dr. Gogek's original argument was entirely wrong (any more than a Ph.D. means a person is always right). But it does tell me one thing; he has a serious difficulty with looking at a body of evidence, and concluding correctly whether that body of evidence supports a particular conclusion. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands, of controlled, double-blind experiments testing homeopathy, and not one has produced any clinically relevant results. Not one. The fact that he is unaware of this, or perhaps ignoring it or rationalizing it away, makes me look at other conclusions he draws with a wry eye.
Now, as far as the legalization of marijuana, please understand; I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not a user, and have no intent to become one. I do find it curious that tobacco, which is clearly a more dangerous drug, is not only legal, but federally subsidized, while marijuana possession can land you in jail in most states; but that isn't the only weird internal contradiction in our legal code. What I do want to make abundantly clear, however, is that when something appears in print -- even in The New York Times -- it is always worthwhile to check source credibility. Things, as Buttercup points out in H.M.S. Pinafore, are seldom what they seem.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Sense, nonsense, and microwaves
One of the difficulties in detecting spurious claims occurs when the writer (or speaker) mixes fact, and real science, in with spurious bits and stirs the resulting hash so thoroughly that it's hard to tell which is which. When a claim is made of unadulterated bullshit (such as yesterday's post about ley lines), our job is easier. Mixtures of science and pseudoscience, though, are often hard to tease apart.
I saw a good example of this yesterday, in an article on the website NaturalSociety called "Microwave Dangers - Why You Should Not Use A Microwave." In this piece, author Mike Barrett describes the terrible things that microwave ovens do to the people who use them and to the food that's cooked in them. Amongst the claims Barrett makes:
I saw a good example of this yesterday, in an article on the website NaturalSociety called "Microwave Dangers - Why You Should Not Use A Microwave." In this piece, author Mike Barrett describes the terrible things that microwave ovens do to the people who use them and to the food that's cooked in them. Amongst the claims Barrett makes:
- Microwave ovens heat food by making water molecules move "at an incredible speed." This differs from conventional ovens, which gradually transfer heat into the food "by convection." Further, this energy transfer into the water molecules results in their being "torn apart and vigorously deformed."
- Microwaves are radiation. This radiation can "cause physical alterations" even though microwaves are classified as "non-ionizing." This radiation "accumulates over time and never goes away."
- Microwave exposure has a greater effect on your brain than on your other body parts, because "microwave frequencies are very similar to the frequencies of your brain," and this causes "resonance."
- Exposure to microwaves causes all sorts of problems, from cancer to cataracts and everything in between.
- Raw foods have "life energy" in the form of "biophotons," that came directly from the sun. These "biophotons" contain "bio-information," which is why eating sun-ripened raw fruits makes you feel happy. Microwaving food destroys the "biophotons" which makes it lose all of its nutritional value.
- Microwaving foods causes the conversion of many organic molecules into carcinogens.
- Microwave ovens were invented by the Nazis.
- First, all heating of food makes the molecules move faster. That's what an increase in temperature means. A piece of broccoli heated to 60 C in a microwave and a piece of broccoli heated to 60 C in a steamer have equal average molecular speeds. Ordinary ovens don't heat most foods by convection; convection heating requires bits of the food itself to move -- so, for example, heating a pot of soup on the stove creates convection, where the bottom part of the soup, in contact with the base of the pot, gets heated first, then rises, carrying its heat energy with it. Foods in conventional ovens are heated by a combination of radiation from the heating coils, and conduction of that heat energy into the food from the outside in. Further, heating the water molecules doesn't "tear them apart," because then you'd have hydrogen and oxygen gas, not water.
- Microwaves are radiation. So is sunlight. Sure, microwaves can cause physical alterations, which is why it's inadvisable to climb inside a microwave oven and turn it on. But not all kinds of radiation accumulate; the microwaves themselves are gone within a millisecond (absorbed and converted into heat) of when the magneto shuts off, otherwise it wouldn't be safe to open the door. Barrett seems to be making an unfortunately common error, which is to confuse radiation with radioactivity. Radioactive substances, or at least some of them, do bioaccumulate, which is why strontium-90 showed up in cows' milk following the Chernobyl disaster. But your microwaved bowl of clam chowder is not radioactive, it's just hot.
- When oscillations of one body trigger oscillations of another body at the same frequency, this is called resonance. However, your brain does not oscillate at the frequency as microwaves -- the frequency he quotes for microwaves inside a microwave oven is 2,450 megahertz (2.45 billion times per second), which is actually correct. Brains, on the other hand, don't oscillate at all, unless you happen to be at a Metallica concert.
- Agreed, exposure to microwaves isn't good for you. Thus my suggestion in (2) above not to get inside a microwave oven and turn it on.
- There is no such thing as a "biophoton." You do not absorb useful energy in the form of photons in any case, for the very good reason that you are not a plant. The only "bio-information" we have is our DNA. Sun-ripened fruit may taste better, as it's ripened more slowly and has a longer time to develop sugars and esters (the compounds that give fruits their characteristic smell and taste), but microwaves don't destroy "life energy." This bit is complete nonsense.
- Microwaving food may cause some small-scale alterations of organic molecules into carcinogens, but so does all cooking. In fact, the prize for the highest introduction of carcinogens into food has to be awarded to grilling -- the blackened bits on a charcoal-grilled t-bone steak contain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which are known carcinogens. The problem is, they're also very tasty carcinogens, which is why I still like grilled steaks.
- Microwave ovens weren't invented by the Nazis. The first microwave oven was built by Percy Spencer, an engineer from Maine, in 1945. The mention of the Nazis seemed only to be thrown in there to give the argument a nice sauce of evil ("anything the Nazis invented must be bad"). But it's false in any case, so there you are.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Ley lines redux
Last year I wrote a piece about "ley lines," which are supposedly lines of "Earth energy" that run through sacred sites and places where the ancients built settlements. The whole thing is immensely popular in the UK, where there have been dozens of books written that claim that the siting of towns, cathedrals, monasteries, and stone circles was based (sometimes unconsciously) on the perception of these "energy lines" that channel psychic power beneath the Earth's surface. (Ley Lines Across the Midlands, Earth Energy: A Dowser's Investigation of Ley Lines, and Arks Within Grail Lands, not to mention the book that started the whole phenomenon -- The Old Straight Track -- are all available on Amazon, should you have nothing better to do with your money.)
Myself, I just thought that important places were sited along straight lines because Euclid et al. showed that a straight line was the shortest distance between two points. Going from Stonehenge to Glastonbury via Cambridge doesn't, perhaps, make quite as much sense.
Having the general idea that the whole thing is a lot of woo-woo nonsense, I was pretty psyched when a friend sent me a link to the site "The Magical Mystical Ley Line Locator." The home page of the site shows a map of England, and has the caption "Ley Lines: mysterious lines of force between ancient monuments. Are you one of the lucky Britons that lives on a mystical energy highway?" You are then invited to enter a postal code for your home town, and the site will see if you live on a ley line, or better yet, on an intersection of two or more ley lines, which is supposed to represent some kind of psychic node where the confluence of Earth energy causes all sorts of cool paranormal stuff to happen.
Now, I'm not British and don't know any postal codes -- as far as I can tell, they make even less intuitive sense than the US zip code system -- so I decided to look up a postal code for a town I've been to. I chose Thirsk, in Yorkshire, because I have fond memories of being there when I was on a walking tour of northern England in the mid-90s. I found that Thirsk's postal code is YO74LS, so I entered that in the "ley line locator."
And lo, I found that Thirsk is not at the intersection of two, but three, ley lines. Next to the map showing the ley lines converging on Thirsk was the message: "This is amazing! We found three ley lines that converge at that location, including one from Stonehenge... You seem to live at a swirl of ancient energy highways; this may mean that your area is a hotspot for paranormal activity, or even for unidentified flying objects!"
Below this was the statement, "IMPORTANT: to understand these findings and any potential dangers, read this." So I clicked that link, and the following message came up:
"So here's the truth: ley lines don't exist. Sorry to disappoint you. The truth is, no matter where in England you are, this site will happily find you three ley lines — including one that goes through Stonehenge! How? Simple: there are over 9,000 scheduled monuments in England. We're running with a smaller database - about 3,000 of the most impressive ones - but that's more than enough to guarantee that hundreds of "ley lines" will pass right through your house. The site picks a few directions, draws a line, and finds the closest sites of interest. By discarding the misses and showing you only the hits, something that's incredibly common can be made to look spectacular. That's how ley lines... work -- they take advantage of the fact that the human brain is really bad at statistics."
Well, all I can say is: Well played. Up to that moment, I really thought this was a serious woo-woo website. My day was much improved by finding out that the designer of this website -- Tom Scott (*doffs hat in Mr. Scott's general direction*) -- has created it not to promote the fuzzy thinking that belief in ley lines represents, but to show it up for the foolishness that it is in a particularly elegant fashion. (He also includes a link to a bit from Carl Sagan's Cosmos, winning him further points in my book.)
So, sorry to disappoint you, but your house doesn't sit on a confluence of Earth energies, and you'll have to look for another reason to explain why your clocks run fast and you keep losing your car keys. Oh, well, that's the way it goes. I'll end with my own favorite quote by Carl Sagan, which seems peculiarly relevant to this discussion: "It is far better to understand the universe as it is than to persist in delusion, however comforting or reassuring."
Myself, I just thought that important places were sited along straight lines because Euclid et al. showed that a straight line was the shortest distance between two points. Going from Stonehenge to Glastonbury via Cambridge doesn't, perhaps, make quite as much sense.
Having the general idea that the whole thing is a lot of woo-woo nonsense, I was pretty psyched when a friend sent me a link to the site "The Magical Mystical Ley Line Locator." The home page of the site shows a map of England, and has the caption "Ley Lines: mysterious lines of force between ancient monuments. Are you one of the lucky Britons that lives on a mystical energy highway?" You are then invited to enter a postal code for your home town, and the site will see if you live on a ley line, or better yet, on an intersection of two or more ley lines, which is supposed to represent some kind of psychic node where the confluence of Earth energy causes all sorts of cool paranormal stuff to happen.
Now, I'm not British and don't know any postal codes -- as far as I can tell, they make even less intuitive sense than the US zip code system -- so I decided to look up a postal code for a town I've been to. I chose Thirsk, in Yorkshire, because I have fond memories of being there when I was on a walking tour of northern England in the mid-90s. I found that Thirsk's postal code is YO74LS, so I entered that in the "ley line locator."
And lo, I found that Thirsk is not at the intersection of two, but three, ley lines. Next to the map showing the ley lines converging on Thirsk was the message: "This is amazing! We found three ley lines that converge at that location, including one from Stonehenge... You seem to live at a swirl of ancient energy highways; this may mean that your area is a hotspot for paranormal activity, or even for unidentified flying objects!"
Below this was the statement, "IMPORTANT: to understand these findings and any potential dangers, read this." So I clicked that link, and the following message came up:
"So here's the truth: ley lines don't exist. Sorry to disappoint you. The truth is, no matter where in England you are, this site will happily find you three ley lines — including one that goes through Stonehenge! How? Simple: there are over 9,000 scheduled monuments in England. We're running with a smaller database - about 3,000 of the most impressive ones - but that's more than enough to guarantee that hundreds of "ley lines" will pass right through your house. The site picks a few directions, draws a line, and finds the closest sites of interest. By discarding the misses and showing you only the hits, something that's incredibly common can be made to look spectacular. That's how ley lines... work -- they take advantage of the fact that the human brain is really bad at statistics."
Well, all I can say is: Well played. Up to that moment, I really thought this was a serious woo-woo website. My day was much improved by finding out that the designer of this website -- Tom Scott (*doffs hat in Mr. Scott's general direction*) -- has created it not to promote the fuzzy thinking that belief in ley lines represents, but to show it up for the foolishness that it is in a particularly elegant fashion. (He also includes a link to a bit from Carl Sagan's Cosmos, winning him further points in my book.)
So, sorry to disappoint you, but your house doesn't sit on a confluence of Earth energies, and you'll have to look for another reason to explain why your clocks run fast and you keep losing your car keys. Oh, well, that's the way it goes. I'll end with my own favorite quote by Carl Sagan, which seems peculiarly relevant to this discussion: "It is far better to understand the universe as it is than to persist in delusion, however comforting or reassuring."
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