Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Anatomy of a verbal slap
Monday, August 29, 2022
Divine meddling
It's an idea of the divine you don't run into often. The heavenly host as competitors in what amounts to a huge fantasy football game.
While McCaw's play is meant to be comedy, it's not so far off from what a lot of people believe -- that some divine agent, be it God or an angel or something else, takes such an interest in the minutiae of life down here on Earth that (s)he intercedes on our behalf. The problem for me, aside from the more obvious one of not believing that any of these invisible beings exist, is why they would care more about whether you find your keys than, for example, about all of the ill and starving children in the world.
You'd think if interference in human affairs is allowable, up there in heaven, that helping innocent people who are dying in misery would be the first priority.
It's why I was so puzzled by the link a loyal reader sent me yesterday to an article in The Epoch Times called, "When Freak Storms Win Battles, Is It Divine Intervention or Just Coincidence?" The article goes into several famous instances when weather affected the outcome of a war, to wit:
- A tornado killing a bunch of British soldiers in Washington D. C. during the War of 1812
- The storm that contributed to England's crushing defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588
- A massive windstorm that smashed the Persian fleet as it sailed against Athens in 492 B.C.E.
- A prolonged spell of warm, wet weather, which fostered the rise of the Mongol Empire in the thirteenth century, followed by a pair of typhoons that destroyed Kublai Khan's ships when they were attacking Japan in 1274
And I'm sorry, I refuse to believe that a divine being would be pro-British in the sixteenth century, and suddenly become virulently anti-British two hundred years later.
Although that's kind of the sticking point with the last example as well, isn't it? First God (or the angels or whatever) manipulate the weather to encourage the Mongols, then kicks the shit out of them when they try to attack Japan. It's almost as if... what was causing all of this wasn't an intelligent agent at all, but the result of purely natural phenomena that don't give a flying rat's ass about our petty little squabbles.
Fancy that.
But for some reason, this idea repels a lot of people. They are much more comfortable with a deity that fools around directly with our fates down here on Earth, whether it be to make sure that I win ten dollars on my lottery scratch-off ticket or to smite the hell out of the bad guys.
If I ever became a theist -- not a likely eventuality, I'll admit -- I can't imagine that I'd go for the God-as-micromanager model. It just doesn't seem like anyone whose job was overseeing the entire universe would find it useful to control things on that level, notwithstanding the line from Matthew 10:29 about God's hand having a role in the fall of every sparrow.
I more find myself identifying with the character of Vertue in C. S. Lewis's The Pilgrim's Regress -- not the character we're supposed to like best, I realize -- when he recognized that nothing he did had any ultimate reason, or was the part of some grand plan:
Vertue sat down on a large stone, and stared off into the distance. "I believe that I am mad," he said presently. "The world cannot be as it seems to me. If there is something to go to, it is a bribe, and I cannot go to it; if I can go, then there is nothing to go to."
"Vertue," said John, "give in. For once yield to desire. Have done with your choosing. Want something."So those are my philosophical musings for this morning. Seeing the divine hand in everything here on Earth, without any particular indication of why a deity would care, or (more specifically) why (s)he would come down on one side or the other. Me, I'll stick with the scientific explanation. The religious one is, honestly, far less satisfying, and opens up some troubling questions that don't admit to any answers I can see.
"I cannot," said Vertue. "I must choose because I choose because I choose: and it goes on for ever, and in the whole world I cannot find a single reason for rising from this stone."
Saturday, August 27, 2022
Perception and suggestion
Friday, August 26, 2022
Written in the genes
Two years ago, I wrote about a mysterious plunge in global average temperature that occurred 12,800 years ago. It's nicknamed the "Younger Dryas event," after the tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, which showed a population explosion over the following millennium (as judged by pollen in ice core samples). This plant only flourishes when the winters are extremely cold, and the pollen spike, along with various other lines of evidence, supports a rapid drop in temperature averaging around six degrees Celsius worldwide.
The obvious question, of course, is what could cause such a rapid and catastrophic drop in temperature. There are three reasonably plausible answers that have been suggested:
- an impact by a comet or meteorite causing an ejection of ash into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight
- the collapse of an ice dam across what is now the St. Lawrence Seaway -- the temperature had been warming prior to the event -- allowing the emptying of an enormous freshwater lake into the North Atlantic, shutting off the thermohaline circulation and propelling the Northern Hemisphere back into an ice age
- a nearby supernova in the constellation Vela frying the ozone layer, causing a collapse of ecosystems worldwide and an atmospheric chain reaction resulting in a global drop in temperature
The discussion amongst the scientists is ongoing, but the weight of evidence seems to favor the impact hypothesis. (The link I posted above has more details, if you're curious.)
What's more certain is that the Younger Dryas event had a massive effect. A number of large mammal groups -- including mastodons, North American camels, dire wolves, and gomphotheres (a bizarre-looking elephant relative) -- all went extinct shortly after the event itself, whatever it was, occurred. Humans very nearly bit the dust, too; two of the dominant cultures of the time, the Natufian culture of the Middle East and the Clovis culture of North America, both collapsed right around the same time.
It's the latter that brings the topic up, because of some fascinating new research that came out last week, led by Paula Paz Sepúlveda of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata (Argentina), which looks at the effects this wild climate reversal had on the human genome.
What the researchers did was look at the makeup of the Q Y-DNA haplogroup. You probably already know that two bits of our genome, the Y chromosome and the mitochondrial DNA, are frequently used for analyzing ethnic group affiliations because they don't recombine each generation -- they're passed down intact through (respectively) the paternal and maternal line. So your mtDNA is the same as your mother's mother's mother's (etc.), and if you're male, your Y DNA is the same as your father's father's father's (etc.). This means that the only differences in either one are due to mutations, making them invaluable as a measure of the degree of relatedness of different ethnic groups, not to mention providing a way to track patterns of human migration.
The Q haplogroup is ubiquitous in indigenous people of North and South America, so it was a good place to start looking for clues that the climate shift might have written into the human genome. And they found them; coincident with the Younger Dryas event there was a marked drop in genetic diversity in the Q haplogroup. It looks like the climate calamity caused a bottleneck -- a severe reduction in population, resulting in a loss of entire genetic lineages:
The YD impact hypothesis states that fragments of a large disintegrating asteroid/comet hit North America, South America, Europe, and Western Asia at 12,800 cal BP. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB, Younger Dryas boundary), depositing peak concentrations of a wide variety of impact markers. The proposed impact event caused major changes in continental drainage patterns, ocean circulation, in temperature and precipitation, large-scale biomass burning, abrupt climate change, abrupt anomalous distribution of plants and animals, extinction of megafauna, as well as, cultural changes and human population decline. The diversity of the set of markers related to the cosmic impact is found mainly in the Northern hemisphere, including Venezuela, but they have also been recorded in the Southern hemisphere, in Chilean Patagonia, and Antarctica.
It's fascinating to think of our own genomes, and (of course) the genomes of other species, as being a kind of proxy record for climate; that not only gradual fluctuations, but sudden and unexpected events like impacts and volcanic eruptions, can leave their marks on our DNA. It brings home once again how interlocked everything is. Our old perception of humans as being some kind of independent entity, separate from everything else on Earth, is profoundly wrong. We were molded into what we are today by the same forces that created the entire biosphere, and we can't separate ourselves from those forces any more than we could disconnect from our own heartbeats. As Chief Seattle famously put it, "Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself."
Thursday, August 25, 2022
Icelandic travelogue
Over the last ten days I took a hiking and camping trip in Iceland. It's a fascinating country, and earns well its nickname of "The Land of Fire and Ice."
It's my second visit; the first time I went there was in 2000, when I had only dated my (then) girlfriend, (now) wife, for a few months. I'd signed up to go that August with a group of friends for a trip mostly focused on birdwatching, and one day over dinner a few months prior I said to Carol, half jokingly, "Hey, I'm taking a trip to Iceland, you wanna come?" My expectation was that her response to being asked to go on a trip to a remote island in the North Atlantic by a guy she hadn't known long was going to be, "Um, no thanks... you have fun. Why the hell do you want to go to Iceland, of all places?"
What she said was, "When do we leave?"
That was one of many moments that convinced me this was a match made in heaven.
The trip took us along the Ring Road around the entire perimeter of the island, and we saw some great birds and generally had a wonderful time. This time, I went with a group of men associated with Mannsvolk, a German-based men's mentorship and workshop group that I first became associated with through a weekend retreat I attended in 2019. So two weeks ago I packed everything into a new trekking backpack (my old one having seen its best days about thirty years ago), and off I went to Reykjavik.
I had been lulled into a false sense of security by my first trip, during which the weather was amazingly sunny and warm. The locals we spoke to said that such a stretch of beautiful weather was pretty well unheard-of, even in midsummer, but of course it was the weather itself and not their warnings about how bad it could be that stuck in my memory. This time, though, was more typical, and we only had a couple of days of sunshine and anything like real warmth.
Most of the weather was cloudy, cold, and intermittently spitting rain. The wind varied from "breezy" to "stiff gale" to "holy fuck grab on to something heavy or you'll blow away." But there's no doubt the scenery was well worth the discomfort. You may have heard about the recent volcanic eruption of Fagradalsfjall, one of the dozens of active volcanoes in Iceland -- specifically the cinder cone eruption at Meradalir. Well, we hiked in and saw it. It's one of the most grueling hikes I've ever done, over loose, basketball-sized chunks of lava rock, but when we got there... wow.
You hear it before you see it; a low, powerful thrumming noise, like a giant heartbeat. It makes your innards vibrate. Then you can see the steam plumes over a low rise, and smell the sulfur. Then you get to the top of a the hill, and...
Wednesday, August 10, 2022
The evolution of the anti-evolutionists
Such was my reaction to Nicholas J. Matzke's paper in Science entitled, "The Evolution of Antievolution Policies after Kitzmiller v. Dover." And if you're wondering... yes, he did what it sounds like.
He used the techniques of evolutionary biology to show how anti-evolution policy has undergone descent with modification.
I read the paper with a delighted, and somewhat bemused, grin, blown away not only by how well it worked, but how incredibly clever the idea was. What Matzke did was to analyze the text of all of the dozens of bills proposed since 2004 that try to shoehorn religious belief into the public school science classroom, and generate a phylogenetic tree for them -- in essence, a diagram summarizing how they are related to each other, and how they have changed.
In other words, a cladistic tree of evolutionary descent.
"Creationism is getting stealthier in the wake of legal defeats, but techniques from the study of evolution reveal how creationist legislation is evolving," Matzke said in an interview. "It is one thing to say that two bills have some resemblances, and another thing to say that bill X was copied from bill Y with greater than ninety percent probability. I do think this research strengthens the case that all of these bills are of a piece—they are all ‘stealth creationism,’ and they all have either clear fundamentalist motivations, or are close copies of bills with such motivations."
"They are not terribly intelligently designed," Matzke added. "Some of the bills don’t make sense, they’ve been copied from another state and changed without thought."
He linked the bills to each other by doing statistical analysis of patterns in the text, much as evolutionary biologists use patterns in the DNA of related organisms, and arranged them into a cladistic tree using the "principle of maximum parsimony," which (simply put) is the arrangement that requires you to make the fewest ad hoc assumptions.
So without further ado, here is Matzke's tree linking 65 different, but related, pieces of legislation:
In particular, he was able to show where the documents incorporated language from a 2006 anti-evolution proposal in Ouachita Parish, Louisiana, and how subsequent generations had pieces of it remaining, often -- dare I say -- mutated, but still recognizable.
"Successful policies have a tendency to spread," Matzke said. "Every year, some states propose these policies, and often they are only barely defeated. And obviously, sometimes they pass, so hopefully this article will help raise awareness of the dangers of the ongoing situation."
So when there are iterations that are better fit to the environment, in the sense that they went further in the court systems before being defeated or (hard though this is to fathom) were actually approved, the anti-evolutionists passed those versions around to other states, while less-successful models were outcompeted and become extinct.
There's a name for that process, isn't there? Give me a moment, I'm sure it'll come to me.
Okay, it's not that I think this paper will make much difference amongst the creationists and supporters of intelligent design. They don't spend much time reading Science, I wouldn't suppose. But even so, this is a coup -- using the techniques of cladistic analysis to illustrate the relationships between bills designed to force public school students to learn that cladistic analysis doesn't work.
I can't help but think that Darwin would be proud.
Tuesday, August 9, 2022
Exam day
You might have seen the most recent lunatic pronouncement coming from the Christofascist right wing here in the United States, this time from noted wingnut Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado. Boebert appeared on the show Flash Point, and in response to a question about what we should do to improve our country, she said, "Maybe we need to have some sort of legislation that requires Constitution Alive! and biblical citizenship training in our schools, and that's how we get things turned around."
It hardly bears pointing out that Constitution Alive! is a Christian ultra-nationalist approach to interpreting the Constitution, and says right on its website that its goal is "restoring America's Biblical and Constitutional foundations of freedom."
I'm more interested, though, in Boebert's "biblical citizenship" test idea. So in the interest of seeing if she's qualified herself, I submit a short quiz I put together to test her understanding of the Bible (along with biblical references, in case you want to check my sources). See how you score, Representative Boebert.
1. Which of the following should be sufficient to prohibit you from entering a church?
a) Having a flat nose.b) Having a broken hand.c) Being blind.d) All of the above.
2. A guy and his wife are walking home one evening, and he's attacked by a guy with a knife. It looks like the attacker's going to kill him, but his wife saves the day by grabbing the attacker by the nuts and giving a good squeeze. What should he do to reward her for her valor?
a) Give her a great big kiss.b) Buy her a nice gift.c) Tell all his friends about how brave his wife is.d) Cut off her hand.
3. Some people move in next door. They seem nice, but upon inquiry, you find out that they aren't Christians. What is the appropriate response?
a) Treat them with kindness and compassion, because that's what the Bible says to do.b) Try to convert them to Christianity.c) Stone them to death.
4. Well, suppose there's an entire town where people aren't Christian. What should you do about them?
a) Let them be -- as long as they're not hurting anyone, they have the right to believe what they want.b) Try to convert them to Christianity.c) Kill them all.
5. Okay, we killed all the people in the non-Christian town. What should we do about their cattle?
a) What kind of stupid fucking question is this? Why should you do anything about the cattle?b) Kill them all.
6. You ask your kid to load the dishwasher, and he rolls his eyes and tells you to go to hell. What should you do?
a) Ground him.b) Withhold his allowance for the week.c) Stone him to death.
7. Someone treats you badly. How should you respond?
a) Forgive him.b) Turn the other cheek and let him hit that one, too.c) Laugh as you're smashing his children on a big rock.d) All of the above.
8. What should the punishment be for kids who make fun of a priest's bald head?
a) Nothing. Ignore it. Kids do that sort of stuff sometimes.b) Tell their parents and let them deal with it.c) Get some vicious bears to eat the children.d) Stone them to death.
9. As a good Christian American, can I own slaves?
a) What? Are you kidding? Owning slaves is inherently immoral! I don't care what your religion is!b) Yes, as long as they're Canadian.
10. How much authority does Lauren Boebert have to talk about the Bible, religion, and such matters?
a) Zero, because she has the IQ of a Pop-Tart.b) Zero, because someone as clearly sociopathic as she is has no standing to preach morality and ethics to anyone.c) Zero, because she's female.


.jpeg)
.jpeg)










.jpeg)