Expertise

The attitude of many laypeople toward medical science can be summed up as "all you have to do is."

Never mind those silly experts, who actually went to medical school and all.  All you have to do is (choose one or more):

• take vitamins (two favorites are C and D)
• spend more time outdoors
• get more exercise
• get more exposure to sunshine
• drink more water
• stop eating meat
• eat more probiotics
• eat more protein
• eat less protein
• eat less processed food
• eat less sugar
• eat less salt
• eat less, period

Now, mind you, I'm not saying these are bad ideas, with the exception of eating both more and less protein, which are hard to do at the same time.  Most of us could use more exercise and eating less sugar and salt, for example.  It's just that the "all you have to do is" attitude tries to boil down all medical conditions to some easily understandable, easily treated set of causes, and avoids the scary truth that human health is complicated.

Sometimes so complicated that even the experts are stumped.

One of the weirdest examples of that latter phenomenon is a ten-year-long epidemic that happened in the early twentieth century, which directly caused at least a half a million deaths worldwide, and that even so most people haven't heard of.  It's called encephalitis lethargica, but that's really only a description of its symptoms; encephalitis means "brain swelling," and lethargica -- well, that one's obvious.  The first cases in the epidemic (although as you'll see, perhaps not the first cases ever) happened in 1915, and just about all of the patients experienced the same, very odd progression of symptoms:

• first, sore throat, headache, and lethargy
• double vision and an uncontrollable upward motion of the eyes ("oculogyric crisis") 
• upper body weakness, spasms, and neck rigidity
• "sleep inversion" -- the drive to sleep during the day and be awake at night
• temper tantrums, psychosis, and hypersexuality
• "klazomania" -- compulsive screaming
• catatonia

The most commonly effected were males between the ages of five and eighteen, but people of all genders and ages could (and did) get the disease.  The mortality rate was high -- about half of the known victims died within a year of onset -- and of the ones who survived, a great many had neurological problems for the rest of their lives, with many of them exhibiting emotional disturbances and/or Parkinsonism.

The disease is sometimes called Economo's disease, after Austrian neurologist Constantin von Economo,  who along with French pathologist Jean-René Cruchet wrote several papers describing the pathology, symptoms, and treatments (the latter, mostly unsuccessful) for it.

Medical journal photographs from 1920, showing Constantin von Economo (upper left) along with four patients suffering from encephalitis lethargica [Image is in the Public Domain]

To cut to the punch line: we still have no idea what caused it.

Initially, it was thought to have something to do with the Spanish flu, which happened around the same time -- possibly an autoimmune reaction triggered by the flu virus -- but that hypothesis was ruled out because there seems to be no correlation between the disease and previous flu exposure.  Also, the Spanish flu pandemic ended in 1919, while the epidemic of encephalitis lethargica went on until 1926.  (This by itself doesn't eliminate a connection; odd immune reactions occurring long after exposure are relatively common, such as shingles turning up years after contracting, and recovering from, chicken pox.)  The brilliant writer Oliver Sacks, in his book Awakenings, stated that the most likely culprit was an enterovirus, a group that contains the causative pathogen of another multi-symptom disease -- polio -- as well as the Coxsackie viruses, thought to play a role in such autoimmune diseases as type 1 diabetes, myalgic encephalomyelitis, and Sjögren's syndrome.  This contention, however, is still considered speculative at best.

While the 1915-1926 outbreak was the most serious, medical historians have identified other epidemics that may be encephalitis lethargica in Europe -- 1580, 1674, 1712, and 1890.  Because there's no certainty of the cause of the 1915 outbreak, it's hard to be sure these are the same disease, but from the symptoms they sound similar.

The reason I bring all this up today is more than just a chance to talk about a biological oddity.  It's to point out that human physiology, and all the things that can go wrong with it, are complex topics.  Emergent diseases like encephalitis lethargica are scary precisely because they strike suddenly and hard, then can vanish before we have much of a chance to study them (and potentially prevent subsequent outbreaks).

And -- the crucial point -- when they do, we need the best-trained minds in medical science to have every tool at their disposal.

Which, in the United States, we don't.  At the moment, the head of the Department of Health and Human Services is a loony anti-vaxxer who is still trying to connect vaccines to autism despite massive study after massive study showing there's no correlation, much less a causation.  His latest salvo was touting putting cane sugar back into Coke as a major victory in "Making America Healthy Again," despite the fact that it's hard for me to see how anything involving drinking Coke would foster better health.  There's a real concern that because of his policies we may have significant shortages of the flu and COVID-19 vaccines this fall, raising the specter of unchecked epidemics.  Research into cancer treatment -- including an mRNA vaccine that shows great promise in treating deadly pancreatic cancer -- have had their funding pulled.

Oh, but according to RFK Jr., that's not a problem.  "All you have to do" to remain healthy is spend more time outdoors and take vitamins.

This is the man in charge of our health policy today.

Look, I know all too well that there were serious problems with the American medical system even before RFK was appointed.  Overpresciption of antibiotics, opioids, antidepressants, and anxiolytics.  Necessary medical procedures being denied by avaricious insurance companies.  Getting the runaround from GP to specialist and back again, with the result that treatment can be delayed weeks to months.  My wife's a registered nurse; don't think I'm unaware of the issues.

But.  If I were to develop a serious medical condition, I'd still want trained experts working on it.  Why on earth would I not?  How does it make sense to doubt medical expertise, when we trust expertise of just about every other sort?  No one gets on an airplane and says, "To hell with training, I'm okay if the plane is piloted by a plumber who has never flown before."  When your house's wiring needs work, you don't say, "I'm fine hiring an accountant to do the job.  He'll do just as well as an actual electrician."  People of all professions work long and hard to acquire their skills and knowledge, and by and large, we trust that they know what they're doing within their given fields.

So why have we been told that medical researchers are somehow the only ones who are lying to us?  And why do so many believe it?

I wish I knew the answer to that.  Maybe it's just because with something as complex and potentially scary as our health, we tend to flail around for something, anything, to make it simpler and more reassuring.  And it's a sad truth of life that sometimes the answers evade even the experts.  The outbreak of encephalitis lethargica is just one of many examples.  But when the next mystery disease strikes -- or even some of the familiar ones -- we want the best shot we have to respond quickly and effectively.

And for that, we need trained doctors and researchers, not anti-science ideologues.

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The web of contingencies

History is really nothing more than one contingency after another.

This leaves fertile ground for the "what-ifs."  What if the Roman Emperor Titus -- who by all accounts was shaping up to be a pretty good leader -- had reigned for more than two years, instead of dying young in 81 C. E. and being succeeded by his cruel, paranoid brother Domitian?  What if King Edward V of England, one of the "Princes in the Tower," had lived, and the Tudor Dynasty never come to power?  What if Mehmed II lost the Battle of Constantinople in 1453, and the Byzantine Empire had survived?  What if the Spanish failed in their attempts to conquer the Aztecs, Incas, and Mayas?  What if the Confederacy won the American Civil War, the Cavaliers the English Civil War, the Republicans the Spanish Civil War, or the Nazis World War II?

Certainly some of these are more likely than others, but the fact remains that the threads of history are pretty fragile.  Speculating about what would have happened otherwise is the realm of fiction writers, and "alternative history" is a popular topic.  I remember reading one of the first stories to use that trope, R. A. Lafferty's brilliant (and hilarious) short story "Thus We Frustrate Charlemagne," when I was in college.  In Lafferty's tale an avatar is sent back in time by some scientists to make sure that Charlemagne is assassinated at Roncevalles in the year 778 (one of the nearest of historical near misses) instead of surviving, winning the day, and eventually becoming Holy Roman Emperor.

The problem, of course, is that when the avatar returns, it appears that nothing has changed, because in altering history it had altered the scientists' knowledge of what happened at the same time.  All it did was create a completely different set of contingencies leading to a different set of circumstances.  So they do it again, and again, changing other seemingly pivotal events in history -- each time with the same results.  Huge alterations, which none of the scientists are aware of, because their own memories shifted every time the past was changed.  It simply became what they always had known.

Ultimately, they conclude that nothing in the past made any difference, because changing past events never has any effect on the present!

In reality, though, we can speculate all we want about the what-ifs, but it will always remain in the realm of speculation.  As C. S. Lewis put it in Prince Caspian:

"You mean," said Lucy rather faintly, "that it would have turned out all right – somehow?  But how?  Please, Aslan!  Am I not to know?"

"To know what would have happened, child?" said Aslan.  "No.  Nobody is ever told that."

Maybe it's because I'm a fiction writer myself, but my mind was bouncing along amongst the what-ifs when I read some recent research about the settlement of Europe.  Back during the Neolithic Period, northwestern Europe had been settled by a culture called the Megalith Builders who had come there from the Balkans, and who were responsible for raising Stonehenge, Avebury, the Carnac Stones of Brittany, and the many other menhirs and stone rings scattered from Portugal to Denmark.  (Contrary to popular misconception, Stonehenge was not built by the "druids" or ancient Celts; when the Celts arrived in the British Isles, Stonehenge was already two thousand years old.)

The Carnac Megaliths of Brittany [Image licensed under the Creative Commons Snjeschok, Carnac megalith alignment 1, CC BY-SA 3.0]

The Megalith Builders thrived for a couple of millennia -- then, around five thousand years ago, the entire culture collapsed.  It was sudden, leading many historians and archaeologists to surmise that they'd been wiped out in a war.  There's a significant flaw in that theory, though.  The Megalith Builders were superseded by the Yamnaya, who came from the Pontic steppe and may have been the first speakers of an Indo-European language in Europe -- but there's at least a five hundred year gap (possibly more) between the sudden disappearance of the Megalith Builders and the first definitive archaeological traces of the Yamnaya.

So the collapse of the Megalith Builders didn't occur because the Yamnaya destroyed them; it seems like when the Yamnaya colonized northwestern Europe, they found the land already strangely depopulated.

A study this week in Nature has found strong evidence of what happened.  DNA evidence from gravesites indicates that of the bones dating from that four-hundred year period between 3,300 and 2,900 B.C.E., during which the Megalith Builders disappeared, one in six showed evidence they'd died of bubonic plague.

"It’s fairly consistent across all of Northern Europe, France and it’s in Sweden, even though there are some quite big differences in the archaeology, we still see the same pattern, they just disappear," said Frederik Seersholm of the University of Copenhagen, who led the study.  "All of a sudden, there’s no people getting buried (at these monuments) anymore.  And the people who were responsible for building these megaliths (are gone)...  These plague cases, they are dated to exactly the time frame where we know the Neolithic decline happened so this is very strong circumstantial evidence that the plague might have been involved in this population collapse."

So the plague seems to have had effects on Europe's history besides the devastating Black Death pandemics in the mid-fourteenth and mid-seventeenth centuries.  And this is where the what-ifs come in; what if the epidemic that struck down the Megalith Builders hadn't happened?  When the Yamnaya came in five centuries later, they would have found a thriving civilization that undoubtedly would have pushed back on their incursions.  And if the historical linguists are right, this would have stopped the progress of Indo-European speakers in their tracks.

What languages would we people of northern European descent now be speaking?

So that's today's ramble through history, alternative and otherwise.  And even if Aslan's right that no one is ever told what might have happened, that doesn't stop us from wondering and speculating how things would have gone if the web of contingencies was rearranged by a little bit.

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The mystery plague

Ever heard of cocoliztli?

In one way, it's shocking if you haven't, and in another, hardly surprising at all, because the vast majority of its victims were the indigenous people of Mexico and Central America, and history has a way of ignoring what happened to brown-skinned people.  Cocoliztli is the Nahuatl name for a contagious, usually fatal disease that struck Mesoamerica repeatedly, with the worst recorded outbreaks in the sixteenth century, killing an estimated ten million people.  This puts it in fifth place for the worst pandemics known, after the Black Death (estimated one hundred million casualties), Justinian's plague (fifty million), HIV/AIDS (forty million), and the Spanish flu (thirty million).  [Nota bene: if we're adding up total death toll, one of the worst is smallpox, but as that was endemic and widespread, I'm not counting that as a true pandemic.  In eighteenth-century Europe, for example, it's estimated that four hundred thousand people died of smallpox per year; and its introduction into the Americas decimated Native populations.  It's likely we'll never know for sure how big the death toll was, but it was huge.]

The symptoms of cocoliztli were awful.  Severe headache, high fever, vertigo, jaundice, and abdominal cramps.  The worst was the hemorrhaging -- victims bled from every orifice including the tear ducts.  Most of the victims died, usually between four and seven days after onset.

[Image is in the Public Domain]

There are two curious things about cocoliztli.  The first is that there hasn't been a confirmed case of it since 1813.

So where has it gone?  Ordinarily, infectious diseases occur at low rates until a confluence of events triggers a more widespread outbreak.  Consider, for example, the Black Death.  Bubonic plague (caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis) has been present in humans for millennia, but a perfect storm occurred in the mid-fourteenth century that caused the most devastating pandemic in history.  First, it was the beginning of the Little Ice Age, and the lower temperatures drove rats (and the fleas they carried) indoors, and into contact with humans.  Second, trade throughout Europe, and with Asia (via the Silk Road), had really just started to gear up, and rats are notorious for stowing away on ships.  And third, the population had risen -- and larger, more crowded cities facilitate disease spread.

Cocoliztli, though, hit Mesoamerica hard, and seemingly out of nowhere.  Repeated outbreaks in 1545, 1576, 1736, and 1813 killed millions, but in between, we don't know where it went -- or why after 1813 it apparently vanished completely.

The second odd thing is that we still don't know what caused it.

The bones of presumed victims have offered up only debatable information.  Back in 2018, Johannes Krause, of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, found DNA in bones from victims of the 1545 outbreak that seems to come from a Salmonella enterica strain called Paratyphi C, but that doesn't mean that's what killed them -- and one epidemiologist has pointed out that typhoid fever, which is caused by S. enterica, doesn't have the same symptoms as cocoliztli.  Others suggest that its symptoms are more consistent with a viral hemorrhagic fever like Ebola, Lassa, and Marburg, but there are no viruses known that are endemic to the Americas and cause symptoms like that.

A rather sobering possibility is that the pathogen, whatever it is, resides in an animal vector -- that is, it's a zöonotic disease, one that exists in an animal population and is reintroduced to humans periodically upon contact.  If so, it's unknown what that vector might be -- but the jungles of Central America are a big place, and there are lots of animals there in which a pathogen might hide.

Whatever causes it, and wherever it went, it's to be hoped it's gone for good.  This would put it in the same class as the mysterious European sweating sickness, that caused repeated outbreaks in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, and then vanished, apparently permanently.  It, like cocoliztli, was highly infectious -- but the pathogen remains unidentified.

Cocoliztli left its mark on history.  The population of Mexico collapsed in the sixteenth century, largely due to the outbreaks, dropping from an estimated twenty-two million in 1500 to two million a hundred years later.  This undoubtedly contributed to the Spanish takeover -- something that reverberates to the present day.

It's also an enduring mystery.  How such a virulent disease could strike so hard, decimating an entire region, and then vanish utterly is bizarre.  But it does highlight how important epidemiological research is -- helping us to understand how pathogens cause disease, and how they jump from one host to the other.  Giving us, it is to be hoped, the tools for stopping the next pandemic before it happens.

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A commerce in death

My novella We All Fall Down is set during some of the most awful years humanity has ever lived through -- the middle of the fourteenth century, when by some estimates between a third and half of the people in Eurasia died of the bubonic plague, or as they called it, the "Black Death."

Back then, of course, no one knew what caused it.  Not only that the disease came from a microscopic organism, but that it was carried by fleas and spread by the rats that carried them.  The superstition of the time meant that people became desperate to find out why this catastrophe had occurred, and the blame was placed on everything from God's wrath to evil magic by witches, warlocks, and (unfortunately for them), the Jews.

It's natural enough to try to figure out ultimate causes, I suppose, even though they can be elusive.  I tried to express this in words of the narrator of We All Fall Down, the young, intelligent, inquisitive guardsman Nick Calladine, who has found himself entangled in a situation completely beyond his comprehension:

I asked Meg if she would be all right alone, and she said she would.  There were one or two other villagers who had survived the plague, and they were helping each other, and for now had enough to eat.  I wondered what would happen when winter came, but I suppose that their plight was no different from that of many in England.  Some would make it, some would not, and that was the way of things.  We are not given to understand much, we poor mortals.  The religious say that after we die we will understand everything, and see the reasons that are dark to us now, but I wonder.  From what I have seen, things simply happen because they happen, and there is no more pattern in the world than in the path a fluttering leaf takes on the wind.  To say so would be considered heresy, I suppose, but so it has always seemed to me.

The proximal cause of the Black Death -- rats, fleas, and the bacterium Yersinia pestis -- doesn't explain why the disease suddenly caught hold and exploded its way through the population.  One of the more plausible explanations I've heard is that climatic changes were the root cause; the Northern Hemisphere was at the time in the beginning of the "Little Ice Age," and the colder, harsher weather caused crop failure and a general shortage of food.  This not only weakened the famine-struck humans, but it drove rats indoors -- and into contact with people.

Seventeenth-century "plague panel" from Augsburg, Germany, hung on the doors of houses to act as a talisman to ward off illness [Image is in the Public Domain]

The reason all this dark stuff comes up is that a new study, by a team led by Maria Spyrou of the Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen and the Max Planck Institute, has added another piece to the puzzle.  Using a genetic analysis of bones from a cemetery in Kyrgyzstan, which lay beneath a stone whose inscription indicated they'd died of the plague, Spyrou et al. found that not only did the DNA from remnants of Y. pestis in the bones match those of European plague victims, it matched extant reservoirs of the bacteria in animals from the nearby Tian Shan Mountains.

The authors write:

The onset of the Black Death has been conventionally associated with outbreaks that occurred around the Black Sea region in 1346, eight years after the Kara-Djigach epidemic [that killed the people whose bones were analyzed in the study].  At present, the exact means through which Y. pestis reached western Eurasia are unknown, primarily due to large pre-existing uncertainties around the historical and ecological contexts of this process.  Previous research suggested that both warfare and/or trade networks were some of the main contributors in the spread of Y. pestis.  Yet, related studies have so far either focused on military expeditions that were arguably unrelated to initial outbreaks or others that occurred long before the mid-fourteenth century.  Moreover, even though preliminary analyses exist to support an involvement of Eurasian-wide trade routes in the spread of the disease, their systematic exploration has so far been conducted only for restricted areas of western Eurasia.  The placement of the Kara-Djigach settlement in proximity to trans-Asian networks, as well as the diverse toponymic evidence and artefacts identified at the site, lend support to scenarios implicating trade in Y. pestis dissemination.

So it looks like the traders using routes along the Silk Road, the main conduit for commerce between Europe and East Asia, may have brought along more than expensive goods for their unwitting customers.

Scary stuff.  I hasten to add that although Yersinia pestis is still endemic in wild animal populations, not only in remote places like Tian Shan but in Africa (there have been recent outbreaks in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo) and the southwestern United States/northern Mexico, it is now treatable with antibiotics if caught early enough.  So unlike the viral disease epidemics we're currently fighting, at least we have a weapon against this one once you've contracted it, and it's unlikely to wreak the havoc now that it did in the past.

At least we are no longer in the situation of horrified bewilderment that people like Nick Calladine were, as they watched their world shattering right before their eyes.  "My father was one of the first to take ill, in July, when the plague came, and he was dead the same day," Nick says.  "My sister sickened and died two days later, her throat swollen with the black marks that some have said are the devil’s handprints.  They were two of the first, but it didn’t end there.  In three weeks nearly the whole village of Ashbourne was dead, and I left alive to wonder at how quickly things change, and to think about the message in Father Jerome’s last sermon, that the plague was the hand of God striking down the wicked.  I wonder if he thought about his words as he lay dying himself at sundown of the following day."

Although we still don't have the entire causal sequence figured out, we've come a long way from attributing disease to God's wrath.  With Spyrou et al.'s new research, we've added another link to the chain -- identifying the origins of a disease that within ten years, had exploded out of its home in Central Asia to kill millions, and change the course of history forever.

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Downplaying a pandemic

Let me be up front that I'm fully in favor of freedom of speech and freedom of the press.

That said, I have to ask: what the fuck are the people who run Fox News thinking?

They've been irresponsible before.  Hell, they've lied outright before.  (Yes, yes, I know other media are guilty of the same thing.  If your only defense of your behavior is "He does it, too!", you might want to consider whether you have a defensible point in the first place.)  But yesterday morning, I saw a clip from Fox Business that aired Monday night and takes irresponsibility and dishonesty to new and unscaled heights.

Those of you keep your eyes on the news no doubt already know that I'm talking about Trish Regan's rant about how the COVID-19 pandemic is being deliberately used by Democrats to take down Donald Trump.  (If you doubt that's the message, consider that the banner next to her during the entire segment said, "Coronavirus Impeachment Scam.")  Here's the bit that stood out:

The chorus of hate being leveled at the President is nearing a crescendo as Democrats blame him -- and only him -- for a virus that originated halfway around the world.  This is yet another attempt to impeach the President.  And sadly it seems they care very little for any of the destruction they are leaving in their wakes.  Losses in the stock market, all this unfortunately just part of the political casualties for them...  The hate is boiling over.  Many in the liberal media are using -- and mean using -- coronavirus in an attempt to demonize and destroy the President.

First, to correct a few of the most egregious lies.

No one blames Trump for the virus.  The virus is a naturally-occurring pathogen that does what it does irrespective of your nationality or political leanings.  What a lot of people are blaming him for is his bungled handling of the pandemic response, starting with the fact of his calling it a "hoax" at one of his rallies.  Yeah, okay, he amended it later, saying he only meant that the Democrats' response to it had been a hoax, but look, I watched the video clip.  The exact quote was, "Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus.  They have no clue, they can't even count their votes in Iowa.  This is their new hoax."

If you don't come away from listening to that with the message, "The coronavirus pandemic is a hoax," you're much better at reading between the lines than I am.

All along, Trump's reaction has been to downplay the seriousness of the situation.  After a visit to the CDC, he did a press conference in which he said -- again, this is verbatim: "As of the time I left the plane with you, we had 240 cases.  That's at least what was on a very fine network known as Fox News.  And you love it.  But that's what I happened to be watching.  And how was the show last night?  Did it get good ratings, by the way?  I heard it broke all ratings records, but maybe that's wrong.  That's what they told me."

Meh, 240 cases.  No biggie.  But look at my ratings, amirite?

He also said that the number of cases in Italy was decreasing (it wasn't), that anyone in the United States who wanted a COVID-19 test could have one (they can't), and that the pandemic was going to be good for the economy because people wouldn't go overseas to spend their money.

[Image is in the Public Domain, courtesy of the Center for Disease Control]

So sorry, Trish, no one, liberal or conservative, is saying Trump is to blame for the virus.  No one, liberal or conservative, wants to see the stock market crash.  (That's a personal one for me; I retired last June, and have been in a state of panic watching my investments sliding into the abyss.)

But this goes beyond an ill-informed, ignorant talking head spewing nonsense.  Because this nonsense is gonna kill people.

Don't believe me?  Already this morning on social media, I've seen the following:

• The media need to simmer down.  They're making people panic for no reason.
• I can't believe they hate the president so much they would make up a plague to destroy the economy just to take him down.
• I heard it's not very contagious.  I'm not worried.  I'm more worried about what the liberals are trying to do to our country.
• We'll have a vaccine in a couple of weeks, and then this will be over and forgotten just like all the other leftist attempts to destroy the United States.
• Only old people who are already sick are in danger.

Now let's look at what actual epidemiologists are saying.

The World Health Organization and the CDC are in agreement that realistically, by the time the dust settles between 40% and 70% of the world's population will have been infected.  If the 2% mortality rate figure holds (and taking the mean value of 55% infected), that means 77 million people dead.

Which is twice the total killed by the Spanish flu -- the deadliest pandemic on record.

What Trish Regan did on Fox Business two nights ago puts people's lives in danger by convincing them the risk is minimal.  China got ahead of the epidemic by enacting the largest quarantine in the history of the world.  At the moment, Italy is following suit, and has the entire damn country on lockdown -- no unnecessary travel, stay home except for emergencies.  They're taking this seriously, as well they should.

But with idiots like Trish Regan trying to convince everyone that the whole thing is a plot by the evil Democrats to ruin Donald Trump, how much likelihood is there of that working here -- and even if it were mandated, for people to go along with it?

Look, I'm a biologist.  I know enough about viruses and disease pathology that I don't panic every time the flu goes around in winter.  But this thing is qualitatively different.  This has the potential to kill a huge number of people, especially older people and those with compromised immune systems.

Like I said, I support free speech and freedom of the press.  But this is shouting "fire!" in a crowded theater.  And I hope like hell I'm wrong, but my gut tells me that Trish Regan and Fox News are going to be responsible for a lot of people dying before this is over.

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This week's Skeptophilia book-of-the-week is brand new: Brian Greene's wonderful Until the End of Time.

Greene is that wonderful combination, a brilliant scientist and a lucid, gifted writer for the scientifically-inclined layperson.  He'd already knocked my socks off with his awesome The Elegant Universe and The Fabric of the Cosmos (the latter was made into an equally good four-part miniseries).

Greene doesn't shy away from difficult topics, tackling such subjects as relativity, quantum mechanics, and the nature of time.  Here, Greene takes on the biggest questions of all -- where the universe came from, how it has evolved and is evolving, and how it's going to end.

He begins with an observation that as a species, we're obsessed with the ideas of mortality and eternity, and -- likely unique amongst known animals -- spend a good part of our mental energy outside of "the now," pondering the arrow of time and what its implications are.  Greene takes a lens to this obsession from the standpoint of physics, looking at what we know and what we've inferred about the universe from its beginnings in the Big Bang to its ultimate silent demise in the "Heat Death" some billions or trillions of years in the future.

It's definitely a book that takes a wide focus, very likely the widest focus an author could take.  And in Greene's deft hands, it's a voyage through time you don't want to miss.

[Note: if you purchase this book using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]

A pandemic of conspiracies

I have to admit that COVID-19 has me a little skittish.

I know all the reassuring bits -- that most people who contract it have few or no symptoms, that the mortality rate is only 2% (contrast that with 70% mortality rate for a monster like Ebola-Zaire), that the flu is worse and we don't panic about that every year.

But.  I've read The Stand and watched Outbreak, and the similarities are alarming, not in the symptoms or severity, but in how the government is handling it.  Outright incompetence, coupled with attempts to muzzle the news media, along with reassurances that are almost certainly false ("a vaccine will be widely available soon").  There was a cluster of cases in Kirkland, Washington -- where I lived for ten years -- and just this morning there was the confirmation of a case...

... in Manhattan.

So at the moment I'm oscillating between "guarded" and "freaking right the fuck out."

At least I keep telling myself to go back to the facts -- what the CDC has discovered about the virus, recommendations for avoiding getting sick, maps of actual cases.  Which is more than I can say for a few other people.

Situations like this always seem to be prime breeding ground for conspiracy theories.  My explanation for this is that people are happier believing that there's a cause for Bad Stuff Happening even if the cause itself is kind of horrifying than they are believing that bad things just happen because they happen.  Global evil is, for some reason, more comforting than simple chaos.

But still.  There are some people who should, in Will Rogers's words, never miss a good opportunity to shut up.

Top of that list is New Zealand-based evangelical Christian preacher Brian Tamaki, of the Destiny Church of Auckland, who said this weekend that COVID-19 wasn't actually a virus, it was an airborne demon, and that therefore True Believers were immune.

"Satan has control of atmospheres unless you're a born-again, Jesus-loving, Bible-believing, Holy Ghost-filled, tithe-paying believer," Tamaki said, with special emphasis on the "tithe-paying" part.

"You're the only one that can walk through atmospheres and have literally a protection, the PS-91 protection policy."  PS-91, by the way, isn't a medication.  It's code for Psalm 91, wherein we read, "Surely he will save you from the fowler's snare or the deadly pestilence."

Because that worked out so well for people during the Black Death.

Tamaki, though, was hardly the only one who's been saying that coronavirus wasn't an ordinary epidemic.  The announcement by the World Health Organization that COVID-19 is now officially a pandemic was followed nearly immediately by Donald Trump announcing at a rally that the outbreak is a "hoax" by the Democrats to discredit him.  How the Democrats created a virus in China and then spread it all over the world is a matter of conjecture, but the MAGA-crowd isn't exactly known for their critical thinking skills, so there was an immediate outcry against those evil Democrats trying to damage Dear Leader.  Then when someone pointed out that it was odd, if the epidemic was caused by the Democrats trying to gain political advantage, the first states to have confirmed cases were strongly liberal-leaning -- California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.

"No," the MAGAs responded.  "The Democrats did that on purpose!  They're making themselves sick so they can blame it on Donald Trump!"

Because that's how evil we liberals are.  Mwa ha ha ha *cough, hack, sneeze* ha ha ha ha ha.

But no one has a better conspiracy theory (and by "better" I mean "completely batshit insane") than the one my wife found a couple of days ago.  Because a summary wouldn't nearly do it justice, here it is in all its glory:

"Digitized RNA activated by 5G waves."  "Remote assassination."  "Smart dust from chemtrails."  "ID2020."  "Weaponized technology from the Space Force."

And, of course, rejecting vaccines.

Look, I know it's scary.  I know it's natural to try to find reasons for things, because once you see the reasons, you can control the fear.

But that is no excuse for making shit up.

Let's all just calm down, take as many precautions as we can (including, most importantly, wash your damn hands).  Panicking and inventing crazy fairy tales and conspiracy theories doesn't solve anything or help anyone.  There's no reason to overreact.

Now, y'all'll have to excuse me, because I'm off to put on my hazmat suit and enter my underground bunker for the next three months.

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This week's Skeptophilia book-of-the-week is brand new -- science journalist Lydia Denworth's brilliant and insightful book Friendship: The Evolution, Biology, and Extraordinary Power of Life's Fundamental Bond.

Denworth looks at the evolutionary basis of our ability to form bonds of friendship -- comparing our capacity to that of other social primates, such as a group of monkeys in a sanctuary in Puerto Rico and a tribe of baboons in Kenya.  Our need for social bonds other than those of mating and pair-bonding is deep in our brains and in our genes, and the evidence is compelling that the strongest correlate to depression is social isolation.

Friendship examines social bonding not only from the standpoint of observational psychology, but from the perspective of neuroscience.  We have neurochemical systems in place -- mediated predominantly by oxytocin, dopamine, and endorphin -- that are specifically devoted to strengthening those bonds.

Denworth's book is both scientifically fascinating and also reassuringly optimistic -- stressing to the reader that we're built to be cooperative.  Something that we could all do with a reminder of during these fractious times.

[Note: if you purchase this book using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]

A scientific Johnny One-Note

In science, there's sometimes a fine line between looking for data to support your model, and shoehorning every bit of data you can find into your model whether it belongs there or not.

Someone who has stepped over that line -- hell, he left the line behind decades ago, and probably doesn't even know where it is any more -- is British astronomer Chandra Wickramasinghe.  Wickramasinghe is best known for his research into panspermia, the idea that living things, and perhaps the ancestors of all living things on Earth, arrived here on meteorites and in interstellar dust.  He did his Ph.D. dissertation under the supervision of Fred Hoyle, whose views were also a little on the unorthodox side.  (Hoyle, for example, rejected the Big Bang in favor of the Steady-State model, which he steadfastly clung to his entire life despite there being zilch in the way of evidence in its favor.)

So Wickramasinghe was kind of set up from the beginning to be a maverick.  He and Hoyle wrote paper after paper on panspermia, ultimately ascribing an extraterrestrial origin for the pathogens responsible for the 1918-1919 "Spanish" flu, mad cow disease, polio, and SARS.  He has been involved in studies of dust collected from the upper stratosphere that tested positive for microorganisms, which he claimed was extraterrestrial in origin (of course) and turned out almost certainly not to be (of course).  A meteorite strike in Sri Lanka in 2012 was analyzed by Wickramasinghe, and he stated that the rock fragments contained "extraterrestrial diatoms" -- which were ultimately shown to be fossils of entirely terrestrial species that were contained in the sedimentary rocks where the meteorite hit.

Oh, and in the 1981 creationism/evolution "debate" in the courts of the state of Arkansas, Wickramasinghe was the only scientist to testify on the behalf of the creationists.  "Once again," he said, "the Universe gives the appearance of being biologically constructed, and on this occasion on a truly vast scale."

And, he added, the famous Archaeopteryx fossil, showing the clear link between birds and dinosaurs, is a fake.

[Image licensed under the Creative Commons Davidnoy, Chandra-Wickramasinghe, CC BY-SA 3.0]

So here we have a guy who is bound and determined to bang away at the same idea forever, in spite of (or maybe because of) the complete lack of scientifically credible evidence for it.  The more embattled he becomes, the more certain he becomes.

You almost have to admire his determination.

I say "almost," because I have to admit to saying, "are you fucking kidding me?" when I ran into an article over at Mysterious Universe describing a paper Wickramasinghe submitted to the journal The Lancet a couple of weeks ago.  And in it -- which you're probably already anticipating...

... he claims that the Wuhan coronavirus came from outer space.

Wickramasinghe writes:

In the case of the current Coronavirus pandemic in China it is interesting to note that an exceptionally bright fireball event was seen on October 11 2019 over Sonjyan City in the Jilin Province of NE China.  It is tempting to speculate that this event had a crucial role to play in what is now unfolding in throughout China.  If a fragment of a loosely held carbonaceous meteorite carrying a cargo of viruses/bacteria entered the mesosphere and stratosphere at high speed ~30km/s, its inner core which survived incandescence would have got dispersed in the stratosphere and troposphere... 

Following the initial deposition of infective particles in a small localized region (e.g. Wuhan, Hubei province, China) particles that have already become dispersed through over a wider area in the troposphere will fall to ground in a higgledy-piggledy manner, and this process could be extended over a typical timescale of 1-2 years until an initial inoculant of the infective agent would be drained.  This accords well with many new strains of viruses including influenza that have appeared in recent years.

Which, I have to admit, is the first time I've ever seen "higgledy-piggledy" used in a scholarly paper.

Be that as it may, the main problem I see about all this -- besides the fact that (1) meteorites hit the Earth all the time, so finding one in the vicinity of a disease outbreak isn't remarkable, and (2) there is no evidence for what he's saying other than "hey, it could be, y'know?" -- is that all of Wickramasinghe's alleged extraterrestrial microbes are closely related to bacteria and viruses that were already here, and in fact have been here for a long, long time.  Yes, the 1918-1919 flu epidemic was horrifying in its contagion rate and mortality, but the causative virus is not really all that different from other flu viruses seen before and since.  Polio has been around since ancient Egyptian times -- and even if you don't buy that the quick mentions in ancient writings were actually polio, it was unequivocally described in an autobiographical account by Sir Walter Scott of events he endured in 1773.  Mad cow disease, and its human analog Creutzfeld-Jakob Syndrome, are caused by misfolding of a protein called PrP, which (in its properly-folded state) is present the brains of every mammalian species tested, including ones that have never been hit on the head with a meteorite.

And COVID-19, as the epidemiologists have named the Wuhan coronavirus, is one of a large family of viruses that have been troubling humanity for millennia.  In fact, a good many of the cases of the common cold are due to members of the coronavirus family, so it'd be a little odd if there was an epidemic caused by a coronavirus, and that one (and its cousin SARS) turned out to be from outer space while the rest of them were here all along.

Wickramasinghe's response to all this is that since all life on Earth originated in space, it stands to reason that you'll find similarities between the ones that come crashing to Earth and the ones that were already here.  We're all aliens, he says, it's just that some of us are more recent arrivals.

Which to me is stretching credulity to the snapping point.  Ockham's Razor kicks in, here -- in the absence of any positive evidence, the (vastly) simpler theory is that all the life forms on Earth go back to a common (terrestrial) ancestor.  Yes, it's possible that the progenitor of all life forms landed here four-billion-odd years ago from an extraterrestrial source -- but that's all we can say.  It's possible.  There's no independent evidence that this happened, so at the moment, it's just a hand-waving guess, not a valid scientific theory.

But that's not going to stop Wickramasinghe, who is bound and determined to take every new development in microbiology and attribute it to an alien incursion.  I keep hoping the guy will give it a rest eventually, but he's 81 years old and showing no signs of it.  Like I said, have to kind of appreciate his tenacity, but it'd be nice if he'd turn that onto some other lines of scientific inquiry, because it gets a little tiresome to keep listening to the astronomical version of Johnny One-Note.

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One of my favorite people is the indefatigable British science historian James Burke.  First gaining fame from his immensely entertaining book and television series Connections, in which he showed the links between various historical events that (seen as a whole) play out like a centuries-long game of telephone, he went on to wow his fans with The Day the Universe Changed and a terrifyingly prescient analysis of where global climate change was headed, filmed in 1989, called After the Warming.

One of my favorites of his is the brilliant book The Pinball Effect.  It's dedicated to the role of chaos in scientific discovery, and shows the interconnections between twenty different threads of inquiry.  He's posted page-number links at various points in his book that you can jump to, where the different threads cross -- so if you like, you can read this as a scientific Choose Your Own Adventure, leaping from one point in the web to another, in the process truly gaining a sense of how interconnected and complex the history of science has been.

However you choose to approach it -- in a straight line, or following a pinball course through the book -- it's a fantastic read.  So pick up a copy of this week's Skeptophilia book of the week.  You won't be able to put it down.

[Note: if you purchase this book using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]

Viral nonsense

Some days, optimism is just a losing proposition.

Today's reason for repeated facepalms has to do with COVID-19, better known as Wuhan coronavirus.  It's not that the virus isn't scary enough by itself; there are currently 75,000 cases of confirmed COVID-19 worldwide, just over 2,000 of which have died of the illness.  So the mortality rate still isn't as high as that of this year's influenza strains, but it's enough to be worrisome.

So I suppose it's an understandable enough impulse -- to ascribe some kind of underlying reason for an event that otherwise just appears to be an unfortunate example of the chaotic nature of the universe.  But for fuck's sake, can't we try to restrain that a little bit?  Because the nonsense about this epidemic is really beginning to piss me off, and (I suspect) piss off the legitimate researchers, as well.

First, we have the evangelical wingnuts weighing in.

Rick Wiles, of TruNews, who has been something of a frequent flier here at Skeptophilia, jumped into the fray with the statement that the coronavirus was God's "death angel" sent to visit destruction upon us because of the push in the United States for LGBTQ rights, and also for all the "filth" in television and movies.  When the topic was raised of why (if that was so) the vast majority of cases were in China, Wiles didn't hesitate.  It's because China has a "godless communist government that persecutes Christians."  "God is about to purge a lot of the sin off this planet," he said.

Then there's the ever-entertaining Jim Bakker, who said that yes, coronavirus is bad, but it can be "cured in twelve hours" by a solution of colloidal silver.  That, coincidentally, he's selling by the bottle on his television show ("Call now to get yours!  Only forty dollars!").  Never mind that colloidal silver doesn't do a damn thing for a viral infection, and also has a permanent side effect -- it turns your skin a bizarre blue/gray color, a condition called argyria.

Maybe he's hoping that if all his followers turn blue, they won't feel so awkward supporting a politician who is orange.  I dunno.

Then the conspiracy theorists got involved.

It couldn't possibly be that the COVID-19 was introduced into the human population in the usual fashion -- via accidental contact with an animal vector.  This is virtually always the cause of so-called "emergent viruses," from the deadly Ebola, Marburg, and Lassa fevers to diseases like chikungunya, which usually doesn't kill you but makes you wish it did (the name comes from the Makonde language of Tanzania, and means "doubled over with pain").  But no, that's too prosaic.

It has to be biowarfare.

COVID-19  [Image is in the Public Domain, courtesy of the CDC]

The first piece of the conspiracy theory came when Charles Lieber, chair of Harvard University's Department of Chemistry, was arrested and charged with "making a materially false statement" regarding funding received from China.  So far, big news to academics, but not of much interest to the rest of us.

Until it came out that some of the funding came from Wuhan University.

Well, no way was that a coincidence.  Then a Chinese researcher was arrested trying to smuggle 21 vials of "biological substances," so of course there was no way it could be anything else but coronavirus, because Chinese + biological samples = deliberate viral terrorism.

Cue all the conspiracy fans to start having multiple orgasms.

Okay.  Where to start?

First, Lieber's arrest had nothing to do with coronavirus, and neither did the arrest of Zaosong Zheng, the Chinese researcher/smuggler.  And if you dig a little deeper, you find out that Zheng was trying to smuggle the samples out of the United States and back to China, not the other way around (which is what you'd expect if there was some kind of horrible plot by the Chinese to cause a pandemic using a manufactured bioweapon), and... most importantly... the "biological substances" weren't even virus cultures.  They were cancer cells that he was hoping to get back home so he could publish the data from the cultures under his own name and scoop the American researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, where he'd stolen them from.

But even that information didn't make much of a dent.  So The Lancet decided to respond.  One of the most prestigious and respected medical journals in the world, The Lancet published a couple of days ago a statement by 27 medical researchers, epidemiologists, and health professionals saying that there was nothing artificial about COVID-19.  They write:

The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins.  We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.  Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife, as have so many other emerging pathogens.  This is further supported by a letter from the presidents of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine and by the scientific communities they represent.  Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus.  We support the call from the Director-General of WHO to promote scientific evidence and unity over misinformation and conjecture.

There you have it.  The people who have actually studied this stuff have spoken authoritatively.  So when this came out, you would expect that the conspiracy theorists would chuckle in an embarrassed sort of way and say, "Wow, what a bunch of goobers we are."

You would be wrong.

This just reinforced their conviction that something big was afoot, because now they had proof that not only was COVID-19 a Chinese-manufactured bioweapon, the evil scientists responsible were covering it up.  How did they know this?

Because there was no evidence.  Duh.  You think evil super-conspirators are dumb enough to leave evidence?

And because the whole story wouldn't be complete without an American politician getting involved, just a couple of days ago Tom Cotton, Senator from Arkansas -- who is in some kind of contest with Matt Gaetz and Louie Gohmert to see who has the lowest IQ in Congress -- stated that "we have to keep our minds open:"

I'm suggesting we need to be open to all possibilities and we need to demand that China open up and be transparent so a team of international experts can figure out exactly where this virus originated.  We know it didn't originate in the Wuhan food market based on the study of Chinese scientists ...  I'm not saying where it started, I don't know.  We don't know because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) won't open up to international experts.  That's what we need to do so they can get to the bottom of where the virus originated and hopefully can effect a diagnostic test and vaccine for it. 

Let's take the professor [Professor Richard Ebright of Rutgers University]  He was ...in fact today cited in the Asia Times saying that it was quite possible that it was a laboratory incident.  That's not saying this is a bioweapon, but we do know they were investigating and researching coronavirus in that laboratory.  It could've been an accidental breach, it could've been a worker that was infected.  My point is that we don’t know until we get all the evidence from the Chinese Communist Party, it is only responsible, not irresponsible, to keep an open mind about the hypotheses.

Okay.  First of all, we already have fucking international experts.  27 of them, in fact, who have stated unequivocally that COVID-19 is of natural origin.  Second, if you actually read the Asia Times article (or in Cotton's case, have a staffer read it to him), you find out that Ebright said "there was no indication that the virus had been artificially modified," but "there was no way to rule out" that the epidemic hadn't started in a lab accident.

Which is an example of typical scientific caution.  You can't rule something out for certain unless you have proof.  No proof = there's still a possibility.  But this is a far cry from Cotton's statement that "it's quite possible that it was a laboratory incident."

The whole thing is making me grind my teeth down to nubs.

But that's the problem with conspiracy theories.  The more you argue, the more convinced the conspiracy theorists become.  And if you're arguing, you're either a dupe or a shill.  It's kind of the opposite of the scientific method; with conspiracy theories, the less evidence you have, the more likely it is.

Because those conspirators are just that sly.

Anyhow, that's the latest on coronavirus.  It's bad, but not as bad as the flu, which we deal with every single year without people having complete meltdowns.  It'll probably dwindle, the way most epidemics do -- no one I've talked to who knows about viruses and epidemiology is particularly concerned that this is going to be the next Black Death.

But try to convince the evangelical lunatics, conspiracy theorists, and Tom Cotton of that.

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This week's book recommendation is a fascinating journey into a topic we've visited often here at Skeptophilia -- the question of how science advances.

In The Second Kind of Impossible, Princeton University physicist Paul Steinhardt describes his thirty-year-long quest to prove the existence of a radically new form of matter, something he terms quasicrystals, materials that are ordered but non-periodic.  Faced for years with scoffing from other scientists, who pronounced the whole concept impossible, Steinhardt persisted, ultimately demonstrating that an aluminum-manganese alloy he and fellow physicists Luca Bindi created had all the characteristics of a quasicrystal -- a discovery that earned them the 2018 Aspen Institute Prize for Collaboration and Scientific Research.

Steinhardt's book, however, doesn't bog down in technical details.  It reads like a detective story -- a scientist's search for evidence to support his explanation for a piece of how the world works.  It's a fascinating tale of persistence, creativity, and ingenuity -- one that ultimately led to a reshaping of our understanding of matter itself.

[Note: if you purchase this book from the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]