Wednesday, April 9, 2025
The silent invasion
Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Dire situation
It's estimated that of the five billion species of organisms that have ever existed on Earth, something like 99.99% of them are extinct. This is with allowances for the fact that -- as I pointed out in a post a couple of years ago -- the word species is one of the mushiest terms in all of science, one of those words that you think you can define rigorously until you realize that every definition you come up with has dozens of exceptions or qualifications.
Be that as it may, there's no doubt that extinction has been the fate of virtually all of the twigs on the Great Tree of Life, from charismatic megafauna like Apatosaurus and the saber-toothed cat all the way down to single-celled organisms that lived and died hundreds of millions of years ago and left no fossil record whatsoever.
Some of the more recent extinctions, though, always strike nature-loving types like myself as a tragedy. The Dodo usually comes up, and the Thylacine (or "Tasmanian wolf," although it wasn't a wolf and wasn't limited to Tasmania), and the maybe-it-still-exists, maybe-it-doesn't Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The Passenger Pigeon, which before 1850 was the most abundant bird in eastern North America, comprising flocks of tens of thousands of individuals, was hunted to extinction in only fifty years -- the last wild Passenger Pigeon was shot in Ohio in 1900.
Wouldn't it be cool, many of us have thought, to bring back some of these lost organisms? The Jurassic Park scenario is a pipe dream; amber notwithstanding, no intact DNA has ever been found from that long ago. But what about more recently-extinct species?
Well, no need to wonder any more. It's been done.
A company called Colossal Biosciences, run by Ben Lamm and George Church, claim to have produced three Dire Wolf pups (Aenocyon dirus) using DNA extracted from a tooth and a skull from Idaho and Ohio, respectively -- genetically altering the fertilized eggs of a gray wolf, and gestating the embryos in ordinary female dogs. Here's one of the results:
You're looking at a photograph of an animal that hasn't lived for ten thousand years.
My initial "good lord this is cool" reaction very quickly faded, though, but not because of some sort of "We're playing God!" pearl-clutching. Lamm, who apparently has huge ambitions and an ego to match, sees no problem with any of it, and has plans to bring back the Dodo and the Woolly Mammoth, and others as well. All, of course, big flashy animals, because that's what attracts investors; no one is going to put millions of dollars into bringing back the Ouachita pebblesnail.
But even that isn't the actual problem, here. Lamm himself gave a glancing touch on the real issue in his interview with The New Yorker (linked above), when someone inevitably brought up Jurassic Park. "That was an exaggerated zoo," Lamm said. "This is letting the animals live in their natural habitats."
No. No, it's not.
Because these species' natural habitats don't exist anymore.
Even the Dodo, which went extinct in 1662, couldn't be reintroduced to Mauritius Island today; the feral cats, rats, dogs, and pigs that helped drive it to extinction in the first place still live in abundance on the island. What would the de-extinction team do? Create a fenced, guarded reserve for it?
How is that not an "exaggerated zoo?"
And the Dire Wolf is an even more extreme example. It originally lived throughout much of the continental United States and down into mountainous regions of Central America. Adults could weigh up to seventy kilograms, so they could take down good-sized prey. If you could create a breeding population of Dire Wolves, where would you put them that they wouldn't come into contact with livestock, pets... and humans?
The truth is sad but inevitable; the world the Dire Wolf lived in is gone forever. Whether what we have now is better or worse is a value judgment I'm not equipped to make. What I do know is that recreating these animals only to have them lead restricted lives in reserves for rich people to come gawk at is morally indefensible. Ultimately, they can never live in the wild again; so a fenced-in reserve -- or the only other option, to let them go extinct a second time.
As huge as the coolness factor is, we shouldn't be doing this. How about putting our time, money, and effort into not further fucking up what we still have? There are plenty of wildlife refuges worldwide that could benefit enormously from the money being sunk into this project. Or, maybe, working toward fighting Donald Trump's "cut down all the trees and strip mine the world" approach to the environment.
So after the first flush of "Wow," all Lamm and Church's accomplishment did was leave me feeling a little sick. There seems to be no end to human hubris, and it's sad that these beautiful animals have to be its showpiece.
Monday, June 5, 2023
The Lazarus flower
The way things are, sometimes it's nice to find a bit of good news to focus on. Today's good news comes to us by way of my dear writer friend Vivienne Tuffnell, whose books are brilliant and whose lovely blog Zen and the Art of Tightrope Walking should be on your "subscribe" list.
The article Vivienne posted was about an amazing accomplishment -- the "de-extinction" of a plant, the York groundsel (Senecio eboracensis).
The plant has an interesting history. It's an example of a curious phenomenon where a new species has resulted from hybridization -- in this case, between the exotic Sicilian ragwort (Senecio squalidus) and the native common groundsel (Senecio vulgaris). Some time in the last three hundred years -- when Sicilian ragwort was unintentionally introduced to England -- the two cross-pollinated. Such hybrids are usually infertile because of having sets of non-homologous (unpaired) chromosomes, but the hybrid then backcrossed to S. vulgaris, resulting in an allopolyploid, a plant that had a combination of chromosomes from two different parent species but was self-fertile. It was also genetically distinct enough from both parent species that it couldn't backcross again, and thus was reproductively isolated -- i.e., a new species.
(Interestingly, another example of allopolyploidy is wheat, a hybrid of two grass species that have actually been identified in the wild.)
The problem was, the new species was only found in the city of York, and an extensive cleanup campaign in 1991 involved the overzealous application of weedkiller. The only colonies of York groundsel known were destroyed. Researchers had three small pots of the plant on a windowsill in the University of York, but the plant is an annual or short-lived perennial, and they didn't last long. Fortunately, before dying, they produced a pinch of tiny seeds -- which were sent to the Millennium Seed Bank at the fabulous Kew Gardens.
Andrew Shaw, of The Rare British Plants Nursery, wanted to see if the York groundsel could be brought back. There was a small amount of seeds in private ownership, but those germinated poorly. So he approached Kew to see if the remaining seeds might be used to try to save the species from extinction.
It worked. Of the hundred seeds planted by Shaw, all but two of them germinated. Over the next two years, Shaw oversaw the production of over a thousand seedlings, which were planted out in specially-chosen plots of land in the city. The reintroduced plants are now flowering in the wild for the first time in over thirty years.
"It’s a smiley, happy-looking yellow daisy and it’s a species that we’ve got international responsibility for," said Alex Prendergast, senior vascular plant specialist at Natural England, who worked on the project. "It only lives in York, and it only ever lived in York. It’s a good tool to talk to people about the importance of urban biodiversity and I hope it will capture people’s imagination. It’s also got an important value as a pollinator and nectar plant in the area because it flowers almost every month of the year."****************************************

Tuesday, April 19, 2022
The Lazarus flower
The adage goes, "Extinction is forever."
It's a sobering thought. There's been talk of "de-extinction" -- using intact DNA from well-preserved fossils to resurrect, Jurassic-Park-style, extinct animals -- but so far, the research in that vein has been tentative and not particularly promising. Plus, there are the inevitable ethical questions about bringing back woolly mammoths, passenger pigeons, and dodos into a world where their environment has changed into something they couldn't survive in anyway. It seems like recreating a few individuals of an extinct species, then having them live out their lives in zoos, is nothing more than generating a handful of entertaining curiosities at a very great cost.
There are, however, a few species that have been declared extinct which have turned out not to be. The most famous of these is the coelacanth, a weird-looking fish that's one of the lobe-finned fish, the fish group with the closest relationship to amphibians. It was thought that all the lobe-fins had become extinct along with the non-avian dinosaurs during the Cretaceous Extinction 66 million years ago, but then someone caught one in the Indian Ocean. There are, in fact, two living species of coelacanth -- the West Indian Ocean coelacanth (Latimeria chalumnae) and the Indonesian coelacanth (Latimeria menadoensis). This long-term survival of a species that was thought to be long gone has resulted in the coelacanth being labeled a "living fossil" or a "Lazarus taxon."
There are also the ones that have been declared extinct, but that a handful of true believers -- and sometimes some scientists, as well -- are convinced are still alive. The last thylacine, or Tasmanian wolf (Thylacinus cynocephalus), which is neither a wolf nor restricted to Tasmania, died in a zoo in 1936 -- except there continue to be sightings of purported thylacines, both in Tasmania and adjacent South Australia. In fact, there's a Facebook group devoted to alleged thylacine sightings, which so far, have either been anecdotal, or accompanied by photos of Bigfoot-level blurriness.
Then there's the ivory-billed woodpecker (Campophilus principalis), an enormous woodpecker species that used to live in swampy regions of the North American southeast. The last confirmed sighting was in Louisiana in 1944, but there have been sporadic reports ever since -- most, probably, of the related (but smaller) pileated woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus). But a friend of mine, an employee of the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, was part of the team sent to investigate a cluster of alleged sightings, and she was one of the people who say they actually saw one. Now, let me add that my friend is an accomplished and knowledgeable birder, and knew what she was looking for; she, and the other members of the team, would not mistake a pileated woodpecker for this bird. Unfortunately, the only video they got was short and of poor quality, and although she and the rest of the team have serious credibility, it still amounts to a single anecdotal report, and a lot of folks are not convinced.
All of this is just by way of introducing a discovery that should give some hope to the thylacine and ivory-billed woodpecker aficionados. Just last week, a paper in the journal PhytoKeys described the (re)discovery of a plant in the family Gesneriaceae, a tropical group most familiar to collectors of rare houseplants -- the best-known members are the African violet (Saintpaulia spp.), Cape primrose (Streptocarpus spp.), and gloxinia (Gloxinia spp.).
The recent discovery was in the Centinela region of southern Ecuador, in the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Centinela has been devastated by deforestation -- by some estimates, 97% of the original old-growth rain forest has been cleared or extensively damaged -- so it's to be expected that any species endemic to the region are gone. That's what the botanists thought about a glossy-leaved, orange-flowered plant that grew in the humid understory; it was last seen in the 1980s. By the time it was discovered and catalogued, it was gone.
That's why they named it Gasteranthus extinctus.
And then, a couple of months ago, some botanists studying what's left of Centinela found that it wasn't extinct after all. Here's the plant:
They took lots of photographs but were careful not to disturb the few remaining plants -- nor are they telling exactly where they found them. This same strategy was adopted by the folks from Cornell looking for the ivory-billed woodpecker; the last thing they needed was a bunch of overenthusiastic amateurs stomping about the place (and you know they would). But it is a hopeful thought, that some of the species we thought were gone forever might still be out there somewhere. (For what it's worth, they're keeping the name Gasteranthus extinctus, and hoping that it doesn't one day become accurate in fact.)
"Rediscovering this flower shows that it’s not too late to turn around even the worst-case biodiversity scenarios, and it shows that there’s value in conserving even the smallest, most degraded areas," said Dawson White, a postdoctoral researcher at the Field Museum in Chicago, who was the paper's lead author. "New species are still being found, and we can still save many things that are on the brink of extinction."**************************************

Friday, February 25, 2022
Out of sight, out of mind
Humans have amazingly short memories.
I suppose that there's at least some benefit to this. Unpleasant events in our lives would be far, far worse if the distress we experienced over them was as fresh every single day as it was the moment it happened. That's the horror of PTSD; the trauma gets locked in, triggered by anything that is even remotely similar, and is re-experienced over and over again.
So it's probably better that negative emotions lose their punch over time, that we simply don't remember a lot of what happens to us. But even so, I kind of wish people would keep important stuff more in mind, so we don't repeat the same idiotic mistakes. Santayana's quote has almost become a cliché -- "Those who don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it" -- but part of the saying's sticking power is its tragic accuracy.
The reason this comes up is because of some research out of Oxford University that appeared in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution this week. A team led by Ivan Jarić looked at the phenomenon of extinction -- but framed it a bit differently than you may have seen it, and in doing so, turned the spotlight on our own unfortunate capacity for forgetting.
There are various kinds of extinction. Extirpation is when a species is lost from a region, but still exists elsewhere; mountain lions, for example, used to live here in the northeastern United States, but were eradicated in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century (the last confirmed sighting was in Maine in 1938). They're still holding their own in western North America, however. Functional extinction is when the population is reduced so much that it either no longer has much impact on the ecosystem, or else would not survive in the wild without signification conservation measures, or both. Sadly, the northern white rhinoceros, the northern right whale, and the south China tiger are all considered functionally extinct.
Extinct in the wild is exactly what it sounds like; relict populations may exist in captivity, but it's gone from its original range. Examples include the beautiful scimitar oryx, the Hawaiian crow, and the franklinia tree (collected in the Altamaha River basin in Georgia in 1803 and never seen in the wild since). Such species may be reintroduced from captive breeding, but it tends to be difficult, expensive, and is often unsuccessful.
Then there's global extinction. Gone forever. There has been some talk about trying to resuscitate species for which we have remains that have intact DNA, Jurassic Park-style, but the hurdles to overcome before that could be a reality are enormous -- and there's an ongoing debate about the ethics of bringing back an extinct species into a changed modern world.
The new research, however, considers yet another form of extinction: societal extinction. This occurs when a population is reduced to the point that people basically forget it ever existed. It's amazing both how fast, and how completely, this can happen. Consider two bird species from North America -- the passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) and the Carolina parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis) -- both of which were common in the wild, and both of which went completely extinct, in 1914 and 1918 respectively.
Actually, "common" is a significant understatement. Up until the mid-nineteenth century, passenger pigeons were the most common bird in North America, with an estimated population of five billion individuals. Flocks were so huge that a single migratory group could take hours to pass overhead. Carolina parakeets, though not quite that common, were abundant enough to earn the ire of fruit-growers because of their taste for ripe fruit of various kinds. Both species were hunted to extinction, something that only fifty years earlier would have been considered inconceivable -- as absurd-sounding as if someone told you that fifty years from now, gray squirrels, robins, house sparrows, and white-tailed deer were going to be gone completely.
What is even more astounding, though, is how quickly those ubiquitous species were almost entirely forgotten. In my biology classes, a few (very few) students had heard of passenger pigeons; just about no one knew that only 150 years ago, there was a species of parrot that lived from the Gulf of Mexico north to southern New England, and west into the eastern part of Colorado. As a species, we're amazingly good at living the "out of sight, out of mind" principle.
The scariest part of this collective amnesia is that it makes us unaware of how much things have changed -- and are continuing to change. Efforts to conserve the biodiversity we still have sometimes don't even get off the ground if when the species is named, the average layperson just shrugs and says, "What's that?" Consider the snail darter (Percina tanasi), a drab little fish found in freshwater streams in the eastern United States, that became the center of a firestorm of controversy when ecologists found that its survival was jeopardized by the Tellico Dam Hydroelectric Project. No one but the zoologists seemed to be able to work up much sympathy for it -- the fact that it wasn't wiped out is due only to the fact that a population of the fish was moved to neighboring streams that weren't at risk from the dam, and survived. (It's currently considered "threatened but stable.")
"It is important to note that the majority of species actually cannot become societally extinct, simply because they never had a societal presence to begin with," said study lead author Ivan Jarić, in an interview with Science Daily. "This is common in uncharismatic, small, cryptic, or inaccessible species, especially among invertebrates, plants, fungi and microorganisms -- many of which are not yet formally described by scientists or known by humankind. Their declines and extinctions remain silent and unseen by the people and societies."**************************************

Tuesday, February 23, 2021
The kites fly again
The iconic movie Jurassic Park has provided us with quite a number of quotable lines:
"I hate it when I'm always right."
"Clever girl."
"That is one big pile of shit."
"See? Nobody cares."
"Hold onto your butts."
But as someone who has studied (and taught) evolution for decades, none of them has stuck in my mind like Ian Malcolm's pronouncement, "Life... uh... finds a way."
This short sentence sums up something really profound; however the Earth's ecosystems are damaged, they always bounce back. Even after the catastrophic Permian-Triassic Extinction -- which by some estimates wiped out 90% of the existing taxa on Earth -- there was a recovery and rediversification.
Note that I'm not saying that means it was a good thing. The end Permian extinction event was, it is believed, caused by an unimaginably huge series of volcanic eruptions, followed by a major spike in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere -- leading to a jump in the global temperature and catastrophic oceanic anoxia.
So yeah. "Life survived" doesn't mean it'd have been a fun event to live through. But it should give us hope that the damage humans can do to the Earth as a whole is, in the grand scheme of things, short-lived.
As an encouraging example of this, take a recent study out of the University of Florida on snail kites. These birds, related to hawks and falcons, are serious food specialists; they eat only one species of snail, found in salt marshes like the Everglades (and also parts of Central America; I first saw snail kites in Belize). When things are stable, being a specialist is a good thing -- you pretty much corner the market on a particular resource, like the South American hummingbird species whose bills are shaped to fit one and only one species of flower. The snail kite's food finickiness is this same sort of thing, and as long as the Everglades was undamaged and had an abundant supplies of snails, all was well.
But when the environment is rapidly changing, either through human effects or because of natural events, being a specialist is seriously precarious. When a new species of snail -- the island apple snail -- was introduced to the Everglades, its larger size and voracious appetite outcompeted the native snails, and the snail kites were in trouble because their bills weren't large and heavy enough to tackle the bigger prey.
Snail kites were already on the Endangered Species List, given that the Everglades has been massively damaged by human activity. This, it seemed, might be the death blow to the Florida population of this striking bird.
But... life, uh, finds a way.
The snail kite, in a near-perfect reenactment of the bill diversification in Darwin's finches in the Galapagos, had a variety of bill sizes. Genetic diversity, despite their extreme specialization. Before the introduction of the island apple snail, bill size probably didn't make much difference, positive or negative, to the individual birds. But now, large bills were a serious advantage. The birds with the biggest bills could tackle the larger snail species -- meaning they had a copious food source that their smaller-billed cousins couldn't utilize.
And in the thirteen years since the introduction of the island apple snail, the average bill size has gone up dramatically -- and the overall population is rebounding.
"Beak size had been increasing every year since the invasion of the snail from about 2007,” said Robert Fletcher, who co-authored the study. "At first, we thought the birds were learning how to handle snails better or perhaps learning to forage on the smaller, younger individual snails... We found that beak size had a large amount of genetic variance and that more variance happened post-invasion of the island apple snail. This indicates that genetic variations may spur rapid evolution under environmental change."********************************
Many of us were riveted to the screen last week watching the successful landing of the Mars Rover Perseverance, and it brought to mind the potential for sending a human team to investigate the Red Planet. The obstacles to overcome are huge; the four-odd-year voyage there and back, requiring a means for producing food, and purifying air and water, that has to be damn near failsafe.
Consider what befell the unfortunate astronaut Mark Watney in the book and movie The Martian, and you'll get an idea of what the crew could face.
Physicist and writer Kate Greene was among a group of people who agreed to participate in a simulation of the experience, not of getting to Mars but of being there. In a geodesic dome on the slopes of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, Greene and her crewmates stayed for four months in isolation -- dealing with all the problems Martian visitors would run into, not only the aforementioned problems with food, water, and air, but the isolation. (Let's just say that over that time she got to know the other people in the simulation really well.)
In Once Upon a Time I Lived on Mars: Space, Exploration, and Life on Earth, Greene recounts her experience in the simulation, and tells us what the first manned mission to Mars might really be like. It makes for wonderful reading -- especially for people like me, who are just fine staying here in comfort on Earth, but are really curious about the experience of living on another world.
If you're an astronomy buff, or just like a great book about someone's real and extraordinary experiences, pick up a copy of Once Upon a Time I Lived on Mars. You won't regret it.
[Note: if you purchase this book using the image/link below, part of the proceeds goes to support Skeptophilia!]

Thursday, January 28, 2021
Sighting a survivor
Last night, however, when we spoke and I interviewed them both, it was clear he now has 100% belief in what his wife had witnessed as he too has now seen the unbelievable. A podcast of our discussion will be released soon on our YouTube channel, as well as Mark Taylor's report when he heads out there in the next day or so to set up trail cameras and get a handle on the area….more to come soon...
The witnesses both claim that they have heard weird noises of a screaming nature several times and just fobbed it off. The beauty of this sighting is that the husband saw the mother (animal) make the weird screechy noise…that part is rare as rocking horse shit.
Which is a wonderful simile that I will be sure to incorporate in my conversations from now on.
Okay, I know, claims like this are a dime a dozen, and I've been unhesitating in dismissing that sort of thing vis-Ã -vis bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster. But at least this claim has going for it that we know thylacines did exist at some point in the past, which is more than I can say for most other cryptids.
And wouldn't it be wonderful if the claim was borne out? It would mean there was a breeding population of thylacines not just in Tasmania but in mainland Australia that has persisted since the last wild sighting occurred in 1931. And hell, the coelacanth was supposedly extinct for sixty-odd-million years until someone caught one off the coast of Madagascar, so stranger things have happened.
Anyhow, keep your eye on Australia. It'll be interesting to see how the ongoing search progresses. How encouraging would it be to find out that at least one of us humans' attempts to wipe out an entire species actually failed?
****************************************
Thursday, November 19, 2020
Dinosaur redux
For me, one of the coolest things about science is that even once you think you've got something pretty well figured out, you can always find new interesting pieces of the puzzle.
For example, take dinosaurs, which we've known a good bit about for a long while, starting with Mary Anning's discoveries along the "Jurassic Coast" of Dorset, England in the early nineteenth century. Even the kids' books when I was growing up back in the 1960s and 1970s had a lot of pretty decent information. Although some of the reconstructions of skeletons, and (especially) our knowledge of the soft tissue that covered it, has changed since that time, it wasn't like I had to completely relearn the science when I studied it more seriously.
That said, we're still learning new stuff and adding to the picture. Just this week we had two new papers that have sharpened the focus on our understanding of dinosaur evolution -- the first about the mid-Jurassic peak in dinosaur diversity and size, and the second about the event that wiped the entire lineage out, with the exception of the ones we now call birds.
The first paper is from Proceedings of the Royal Society B, and is titled "Extinction of Herbivorous Dinosaurs Linked to Early Jurassic Global Warming Event." The paper was written by a team led by Diego Pol, paleontologist at the Paleontological Museum Egidio Feruglio in Trelew, Argentina, and looked at a hitherto-unexplained overturning of Jurassic fauna that made way for the rise of the sauropods -- the largest land animals that have ever lived.
The early Jurassic had a high dinosaur diversity, but then toward the middle of the period something happened, and a good many of the early Jurassic dinosaurs vanished. They were replaced by behemoths like the familiar Brachiosaurus and the less-well-known but hilariously-named Supersaurus, which measured an almost unimaginable 33 meters from tip to tail. (Even better, though, is the name Dreadnoughtus, which was shorter than Supersaurus -- "only" 26 or so meters long -- but is thought to be the heaviest land animal ever, on the order of thirty metric tonnes.)
So what caused the replacement of the earlier species by the giants? Pol and his team found what they think is the smoking gun, a series of massive volcanic eruptions in southern Gondwanaland (what is now South America and Africa), which spiked the carbon dioxide content of the air, boosting the average temperature and dropping the pH of ocean water.
The perturbation of the climate affected the plants first. Earlier groups, like seed ferns and other smaller herbaceous plants, were replaced by conifers, which have tough, lignified stems, small needles or scales instead of leaves, and thick waxy cuticles to prevent water loss. The problem is -- if you're an early Jurassic herbivorous dinosaur -- having evolved to eat seed ferns, you're not going to do so well trying to munch pine needles.
So as it always does, the change to the base of the food web percolated its way up to the top. The early dinosaurs were replaced by big sauropods, who had grinding teeth (so tough plant material could be thoroughly pulverized before swallowing) and large stomachs (where food could sit and digest for a long time, extracting all the nutritive value possible). The result was the arrival on the scene of monsters like Supersaurus and Dreadnoughtus and their cousins, which were the dominant land herbivores for a good hundred million years thereafter.
Sometimes new evidence results in our having to revise our previous models, overturning what we thought we knew. Take, for example, the research that appeared this week in Royal Society Open Science that conclusively put to rest a commonly-held idea -- that by the time the Chicxulub Meteorite hit the Earth 66 million years ago, dinosaurs were already in a steep decline, so they would have disappeared anyhow, even without the massive impact that was the final death blow.
In "Dinosaur Diversification Rates Were Not in Decline Prior to the K-Pg Boundary," by a team led by Joseph Bonsor of the London Natural History Museum and the University of Bath, we find out that the dinosaurs were actually doing okay before the meteorite hit. Far from being in decline, they would have been very likely to retain their position as the dominant animals on Earth well into the Cenozoic Era -- with effects on mammalian evolution that can only be imagined.
Bonsor, as befits a good scientist, is cautious about overconcluding. "The main point of what we are saying is that we don't really have enough data to know either way what would have happened to the dinosaurs," Bonsor said in a press release from the Natural History Museum. "Generally in the fossil record there is a bias towards a lack of data, and to interpret those gaps in the fossil record as an artificial decline in diversification rates isn't what we should be doing. Instead we've shown that there is no strong evidence for them dying out, and that the only way to know for sure is to fill in the gaps in the fossil record."
But in the absence of positive evidence for a decline, we're thrown back to the null hypothesis; that they weren't in imminent danger of extinction. So the whole idea of the dinosaurs as some kind of "failed experiment" in evolution is clearly wrong. Not only did they kind of run things for a good two hundred million years -- which, by comparison, is something like a thousand times longer than we've been around -- they would probably have persisted for a good long while had a giant rock not interfered.
Me, I always want to know "what if?" I think it comes from being a novelist; I'm always wanting to play around with reality and see what happens. If the dinosaurs had stuck around for a long time rather than dying out 66 million years ago, it's hard to see how the rise of mammals -- and ultimately, us -- would have occurred. Mammals had been around for a long while before the Chicxulub Impact, but they were mostly small, presumably kept that way both by the big carnivores and by competition with herbivores much larger than themselves. So what would the Earth look like today?
Super-intelligent dinosaurs? Maybe. Evolution doesn't always point in the direction of "bigger and smarter;" it's the law of whatever works. So as fun as it is to speculate, to be fair we have to side with Bonsor and say we just don't know.
Anyhow, that's our look back into the distant past for today. Cool that we're still assembling new views of an old branch of biology. Further reinforcing my opinion that if you're interested in science, you will never ever be bored.

Saturday, August 22, 2020
A prehistoric hoax
It's called being a "cynic," and it's just as lazy as being gullible. However, because the credulous are often derided as silly or ignorant, cynics sometimes feel that they must therefore be highly intelligent, and that disbelieving everything means that you're too smart to be "taken in."
In reality, cynicism is an excuse, a justification for having stopped thinking. "The media always lies" isn't any closer to the truth than "everything you eat causes cancer" or "all of the science we're being told now could be wrong." It give you an automatic reason not to read (or not to watch your diet or not to learn science), and in the end, is simply a statement of willful ignorance.
Take, for example, the site Clues Forum, which has as its tagline, "Exposing Media Fakery." In particular, consider the thread that was started several years ago, but which continues to circulate, lo up unto this very day... entitled "The (Non-religious) Dinosaur Hoax Question."
And yes, it means what you think it means. And yes, the "Question" should simply be answered "No." But let's look a little more deeply at what they're saying... because I think it reveals something rather insidious.
Take a look at how it starts:
Dinosaurs have, in recent years, become a media subject rivaling the space program in popularity and eliciting similar levels of public adoration towards its researchers and scientists. The science of dinosaurs and other prehistoric life is also directly linked to other controversial scientific topics such as evolution, fuel production, climate and even the space program (i.e., what allegedly killed them).So right from the outset, we've jumped straight into the Motive Fallacy -- the idea that a particular individual's motive for saying something has any bearing on that statement's truth value. Those scientists, the author says, have a motive for our believing in dinosaurs. Supporting controversial ideas for their own nefarious reasons. Getting us worried about the climate and the potential for cataclysmic asteroid strikes. Therefore: they must be lying. We're never told, outright, why the scientists would lie about such things, but the seed is planted, right there in the first paragraph.
Then, we're thrown more reason for doubt our way, when we're told that (*gasp*) scientists make mistakes. A dinosaur skeleton found in New Jersey, and now on display at the New Jersey State Museum, was reconstructed with a skull based on an iguana, since the actual skull could not be found. The article, though, uses the word "fake" -- as if the museum owners, and the scientists, were deliberately trying to pull the wool over people's eyes, instead of interpolating the missing pieces -- something that is routinely done by paleontologists. And those wily characters even gave away the game by admitting what they were up to, right beneath a photograph of the skeleton:
Above is the full-size Hadrosaurus mount currently on display at the New Jersey State Museum in Trenton. The posture is now recognized as incorrect. At the same time the skeleton is fitted with the wrong skull of another type of duck-bill dinosaur. Signs at the exhibit acknowledge that both the mounted skeleton as well as nearby illustrated depictions of what the living animal looked like are both wrong. Both are slated for correction at some unspecified future date.
Last, we're told that it's likely that the paleontologists are creating the fossils themselves, because fossils are just "rock in rock," leaving it a complete guessing game as to where the matrix rock ends and the fossil begins. So for their own secret, evil reasons, paleontologists spend days and weeks out in the field, living in primitive and inhospitable conditions, grinding rocks into the shape of bones so as to hoodwink us all:
But, in our hoax-filled world of fake science, doesn't this rock-in-rock situation make it rather easy for creative interpretations of what the animal really looked like? And, once a particular animal is “approved” by the gods of the scientific community, wouldn't all subsequent representations of that same animal have to conform with that standard?By the time you've read this far, you're so far sunk in the mire of paranoia that you would probably begin to doubt that gravity exists. Those Evil, Evil Scientists! They're lying to us about everything!
Of course, what we're seeing here is the phenomenon I started with; substituting lazy gullibility with lazy disbelief. All the writer would have to do is sign up for a paleontology class, or (better yet) go on a fossil dig, to find out how the science is really done.
But I've found that people like this will seldom take any of those steps. Once you suspect everyone, there's no one to lean on but yourself -- and (by extension) on your own ignorance. At that point, you're stuck.
Gullibility is far easier to cure.

Thursday, August 20, 2020
Of rhinos and puppies
Rhinos, though, used to be much more diverse, and much more common. One of the most remarkable fossils ever discovered is the Blue Lake rhino, a fifteen-million-year-old cast of an extinct rhinoceros species called Diceratherium in what is now eastern Washington state. The "remarkable" part is that it's fossilized in igneous rock, which isn't supposed to happen -- fossils are supposed to all be in sedimentary rock, right? But what happened is there was a colossal eruption fifteen million years ago that produced the Columbia River Flood Basalts, releasing an estimated 174,000 cubic kilometers of lava, an amount that's hard to fathom. Anyhow, this poor rhino was peacefully grazing, minding its own business, and suddenly BAM, it gets hit by a fast-moving, highly liquid lava flow, its body entombed then burned away. Fast forward to 1935, when a fossil hunter named Haakon Friele discovered a strange cave in a basalt formation, crawled inside with a flashlight, and somehow thought, "Hey, this hole is shaped just like a rhino." A bit later, a crew of paleontologists from the University of California - Berkeley were called in, and they made a plaster cast of the interior -- and sure enough, it's a cast of a very surprised-looking rhino who was very much in the wrong place at the wrong time.
There were other rhino species more recently, however. The woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) was an ice-age species that lived pretty much everywhere in what is now Asia and Europe, but started declining in population about forty thousand years ago, dwindling until only a remnant population was left in Siberia. The last ones died fourteen thousand years ago, give or take.
Ancient DNA has significantly improved our understanding of the evolution and population history of extinct megafauna. However, few studies have used complete ancient genomes to examine species responses to climate change prior to extinction. The woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) was a cold-adapted megaherbivore widely distributed across northern Eurasia during the Late Pleistocene and became extinct approximately 14 thousand years before present (ka BP). While humans and climate change have been proposed as potential causes of extinction, knowledge is limited on how the woolly rhinoceros was impacted by human arrival and climatic fluctuations. Here, we use one complete nuclear genome and 14 mitogenomes to investigate the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros leading up to its extinction. Unlike other northern megafauna, the effective population size of woolly rhinoceros likely increased at 29.7 ka BP and subsequently remained stable until close to the species’ extinction. Analysis of the nuclear genome from a ∼18.5-ka-old specimen did not indicate any increased inbreeding or reduced genetic diversity, suggesting that the population size remained steady for more than 13 ka following the arrival of humans. The population contraction leading to extinction of the woolly rhinoceros may have thus been sudden and mostly driven by rapid warming in the Bølling-Allerød interstadial.So at least that's one calamity we're not responsible for.
On the other hand, another recent discovery shows that we might not have doomed the woolly rhino, but our best friends might have had a hand -- um, a paw -- in it. A friend and long-time loyal reader of Skeptophilia sent me a link to an article about a mummified body of a dog found in Siberia that, when analyzed, was found to have bits of meat from a woolly rhino it its stomach. "This puppy, we know already, has been dated to roughly 14,000 years ago," said researcher Love Dalén, also of the Swedish Museum of Natural History. "We also know that the woolly rhinoceros goes extinct 14,000 years ago. So, potentially, this puppy has eaten one of the last remaining woolly rhinos."
Dogs: Eating Stuff They Shouldn't Eat For the Past Fourteen Thousand Years.
So that's today's excursion into weird cul-de-sacs of zoology. And honestly, I'm just as glad the temperate-area rhino species are gone, cool as they undoubtedly were. We have enough trouble keeping the groundhogs and rabbits out of the vegetable garden, I can't imagine how we'd deal with rhinos tromping around the place.
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