Saturday, August 27, 2022
Perception and suggestion
Friday, August 26, 2022
Written in the genes
Two years ago, I wrote about a mysterious plunge in global average temperature that occurred 12,800 years ago. It's nicknamed the "Younger Dryas event," after the tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, which showed a population explosion over the following millennium (as judged by pollen in ice core samples). This plant only flourishes when the winters are extremely cold, and the pollen spike, along with various other lines of evidence, supports a rapid drop in temperature averaging around six degrees Celsius worldwide.
The obvious question, of course, is what could cause such a rapid and catastrophic drop in temperature. There are three reasonably plausible answers that have been suggested:
- an impact by a comet or meteorite causing an ejection of ash into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight
- the collapse of an ice dam across what is now the St. Lawrence Seaway -- the temperature had been warming prior to the event -- allowing the emptying of an enormous freshwater lake into the North Atlantic, shutting off the thermohaline circulation and propelling the Northern Hemisphere back into an ice age
- a nearby supernova in the constellation Vela frying the ozone layer, causing a collapse of ecosystems worldwide and an atmospheric chain reaction resulting in a global drop in temperature
The discussion amongst the scientists is ongoing, but the weight of evidence seems to favor the impact hypothesis. (The link I posted above has more details, if you're curious.)
What's more certain is that the Younger Dryas event had a massive effect. A number of large mammal groups -- including mastodons, North American camels, dire wolves, and gomphotheres (a bizarre-looking elephant relative) -- all went extinct shortly after the event itself, whatever it was, occurred. Humans very nearly bit the dust, too; two of the dominant cultures of the time, the Natufian culture of the Middle East and the Clovis culture of North America, both collapsed right around the same time.
It's the latter that brings the topic up, because of some fascinating new research that came out last week, led by Paula Paz Sepúlveda of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata (Argentina), which looks at the effects this wild climate reversal had on the human genome.
What the researchers did was look at the makeup of the Q Y-DNA haplogroup. You probably already know that two bits of our genome, the Y chromosome and the mitochondrial DNA, are frequently used for analyzing ethnic group affiliations because they don't recombine each generation -- they're passed down intact through (respectively) the paternal and maternal line. So your mtDNA is the same as your mother's mother's mother's (etc.), and if you're male, your Y DNA is the same as your father's father's father's (etc.). This means that the only differences in either one are due to mutations, making them invaluable as a measure of the degree of relatedness of different ethnic groups, not to mention providing a way to track patterns of human migration.
The Q haplogroup is ubiquitous in indigenous people of North and South America, so it was a good place to start looking for clues that the climate shift might have written into the human genome. And they found them; coincident with the Younger Dryas event there was a marked drop in genetic diversity in the Q haplogroup. It looks like the climate calamity caused a bottleneck -- a severe reduction in population, resulting in a loss of entire genetic lineages:
The YD impact hypothesis states that fragments of a large disintegrating asteroid/comet hit North America, South America, Europe, and Western Asia at 12,800 cal BP. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB, Younger Dryas boundary), depositing peak concentrations of a wide variety of impact markers. The proposed impact event caused major changes in continental drainage patterns, ocean circulation, in temperature and precipitation, large-scale biomass burning, abrupt climate change, abrupt anomalous distribution of plants and animals, extinction of megafauna, as well as, cultural changes and human population decline. The diversity of the set of markers related to the cosmic impact is found mainly in the Northern hemisphere, including Venezuela, but they have also been recorded in the Southern hemisphere, in Chilean Patagonia, and Antarctica.
It's fascinating to think of our own genomes, and (of course) the genomes of other species, as being a kind of proxy record for climate; that not only gradual fluctuations, but sudden and unexpected events like impacts and volcanic eruptions, can leave their marks on our DNA. It brings home once again how interlocked everything is. Our old perception of humans as being some kind of independent entity, separate from everything else on Earth, is profoundly wrong. We were molded into what we are today by the same forces that created the entire biosphere, and we can't separate ourselves from those forces any more than we could disconnect from our own heartbeats. As Chief Seattle famously put it, "Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself."
Thursday, August 25, 2022
Icelandic travelogue
Over the last ten days I took a hiking and camping trip in Iceland. It's a fascinating country, and earns well its nickname of "The Land of Fire and Ice."
It's my second visit; the first time I went there was in 2000, when I had only dated my (then) girlfriend, (now) wife, for a few months. I'd signed up to go that August with a group of friends for a trip mostly focused on birdwatching, and one day over dinner a few months prior I said to Carol, half jokingly, "Hey, I'm taking a trip to Iceland, you wanna come?" My expectation was that her response to being asked to go on a trip to a remote island in the North Atlantic by a guy she hadn't known long was going to be, "Um, no thanks... you have fun. Why the hell do you want to go to Iceland, of all places?"
What she said was, "When do we leave?"
That was one of many moments that convinced me this was a match made in heaven.
The trip took us along the Ring Road around the entire perimeter of the island, and we saw some great birds and generally had a wonderful time. This time, I went with a group of men associated with Mannsvolk, a German-based men's mentorship and workshop group that I first became associated with through a weekend retreat I attended in 2019. So two weeks ago I packed everything into a new trekking backpack (my old one having seen its best days about thirty years ago), and off I went to Reykjavik.
I had been lulled into a false sense of security by my first trip, during which the weather was amazingly sunny and warm. The locals we spoke to said that such a stretch of beautiful weather was pretty well unheard-of, even in midsummer, but of course it was the weather itself and not their warnings about how bad it could be that stuck in my memory. This time, though, was more typical, and we only had a couple of days of sunshine and anything like real warmth.
Most of the weather was cloudy, cold, and intermittently spitting rain. The wind varied from "breezy" to "stiff gale" to "holy fuck grab on to something heavy or you'll blow away." But there's no doubt the scenery was well worth the discomfort. You may have heard about the recent volcanic eruption of Fagradalsfjall, one of the dozens of active volcanoes in Iceland -- specifically the cinder cone eruption at Meradalir. Well, we hiked in and saw it. It's one of the most grueling hikes I've ever done, over loose, basketball-sized chunks of lava rock, but when we got there... wow.
You hear it before you see it; a low, powerful thrumming noise, like a giant heartbeat. It makes your innards vibrate. Then you can see the steam plumes over a low rise, and smell the sulfur. Then you get to the top of a the hill, and...
Wednesday, August 10, 2022
The evolution of the anti-evolutionists
Such was my reaction to Nicholas J. Matzke's paper in Science entitled, "The Evolution of Antievolution Policies after Kitzmiller v. Dover." And if you're wondering... yes, he did what it sounds like.
He used the techniques of evolutionary biology to show how anti-evolution policy has undergone descent with modification.
I read the paper with a delighted, and somewhat bemused, grin, blown away not only by how well it worked, but how incredibly clever the idea was. What Matzke did was to analyze the text of all of the dozens of bills proposed since 2004 that try to shoehorn religious belief into the public school science classroom, and generate a phylogenetic tree for them -- in essence, a diagram summarizing how they are related to each other, and how they have changed.
In other words, a cladistic tree of evolutionary descent.
"Creationism is getting stealthier in the wake of legal defeats, but techniques from the study of evolution reveal how creationist legislation is evolving," Matzke said in an interview. "It is one thing to say that two bills have some resemblances, and another thing to say that bill X was copied from bill Y with greater than ninety percent probability. I do think this research strengthens the case that all of these bills are of a piece—they are all ‘stealth creationism,’ and they all have either clear fundamentalist motivations, or are close copies of bills with such motivations."
"They are not terribly intelligently designed," Matzke added. "Some of the bills don’t make sense, they’ve been copied from another state and changed without thought."
He linked the bills to each other by doing statistical analysis of patterns in the text, much as evolutionary biologists use patterns in the DNA of related organisms, and arranged them into a cladistic tree using the "principle of maximum parsimony," which (simply put) is the arrangement that requires you to make the fewest ad hoc assumptions.
So without further ado, here is Matzke's tree linking 65 different, but related, pieces of legislation:
In particular, he was able to show where the documents incorporated language from a 2006 anti-evolution proposal in Ouachita Parish, Louisiana, and how subsequent generations had pieces of it remaining, often -- dare I say -- mutated, but still recognizable.
"Successful policies have a tendency to spread," Matzke said. "Every year, some states propose these policies, and often they are only barely defeated. And obviously, sometimes they pass, so hopefully this article will help raise awareness of the dangers of the ongoing situation."
So when there are iterations that are better fit to the environment, in the sense that they went further in the court systems before being defeated or (hard though this is to fathom) were actually approved, the anti-evolutionists passed those versions around to other states, while less-successful models were outcompeted and become extinct.
There's a name for that process, isn't there? Give me a moment, I'm sure it'll come to me.
Okay, it's not that I think this paper will make much difference amongst the creationists and supporters of intelligent design. They don't spend much time reading Science, I wouldn't suppose. But even so, this is a coup -- using the techniques of cladistic analysis to illustrate the relationships between bills designed to force public school students to learn that cladistic analysis doesn't work.
I can't help but think that Darwin would be proud.
Tuesday, August 9, 2022
Exam day
You might have seen the most recent lunatic pronouncement coming from the Christofascist right wing here in the United States, this time from noted wingnut Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado. Boebert appeared on the show Flash Point, and in response to a question about what we should do to improve our country, she said, "Maybe we need to have some sort of legislation that requires Constitution Alive! and biblical citizenship training in our schools, and that's how we get things turned around."
It hardly bears pointing out that Constitution Alive! is a Christian ultra-nationalist approach to interpreting the Constitution, and says right on its website that its goal is "restoring America's Biblical and Constitutional foundations of freedom."
I'm more interested, though, in Boebert's "biblical citizenship" test idea. So in the interest of seeing if she's qualified herself, I submit a short quiz I put together to test her understanding of the Bible (along with biblical references, in case you want to check my sources). See how you score, Representative Boebert.
1. Which of the following should be sufficient to prohibit you from entering a church?
a) Having a flat nose.b) Having a broken hand.c) Being blind.d) All of the above.
2. A guy and his wife are walking home one evening, and he's attacked by a guy with a knife. It looks like the attacker's going to kill him, but his wife saves the day by grabbing the attacker by the nuts and giving a good squeeze. What should he do to reward her for her valor?
a) Give her a great big kiss.b) Buy her a nice gift.c) Tell all his friends about how brave his wife is.d) Cut off her hand.
3. Some people move in next door. They seem nice, but upon inquiry, you find out that they aren't Christians. What is the appropriate response?
a) Treat them with kindness and compassion, because that's what the Bible says to do.b) Try to convert them to Christianity.c) Stone them to death.
4. Well, suppose there's an entire town where people aren't Christian. What should you do about them?
a) Let them be -- as long as they're not hurting anyone, they have the right to believe what they want.b) Try to convert them to Christianity.c) Kill them all.
5. Okay, we killed all the people in the non-Christian town. What should we do about their cattle?
a) What kind of stupid fucking question is this? Why should you do anything about the cattle?b) Kill them all.
6. You ask your kid to load the dishwasher, and he rolls his eyes and tells you to go to hell. What should you do?
a) Ground him.b) Withhold his allowance for the week.c) Stone him to death.
7. Someone treats you badly. How should you respond?
a) Forgive him.b) Turn the other cheek and let him hit that one, too.c) Laugh as you're smashing his children on a big rock.d) All of the above.
8. What should the punishment be for kids who make fun of a priest's bald head?
a) Nothing. Ignore it. Kids do that sort of stuff sometimes.b) Tell their parents and let them deal with it.c) Get some vicious bears to eat the children.d) Stone them to death.
9. As a good Christian American, can I own slaves?
a) What? Are you kidding? Owning slaves is inherently immoral! I don't care what your religion is!b) Yes, as long as they're Canadian.
10. How much authority does Lauren Boebert have to talk about the Bible, religion, and such matters?
a) Zero, because she has the IQ of a Pop-Tart.b) Zero, because someone as clearly sociopathic as she is has no standing to preach morality and ethics to anyone.c) Zero, because she's female.
Monday, August 8, 2022
Razor's edge
This comes up because of a loyal reader of Skeptophilia who, after my post last week on homeopathy, sent me an email that said, "This makes homeopathy look like Nobel-Prize-winning science." And he attached a link to a site called "Pyramid Razor Sharpener: It Actually Works! Make Your Own In 10 Minutes!"
This is the first I've seen any pyramid-power bullshit in a while -- the last one I recall was back in 2012, when someone took a photo of one of the pyramids at Chichen Itza and found that it had a mysterious beam of light shooting upwards from it. It turned out that the whole thing was easily explainable as a common digital camera malfunction, but that didn't prevent the woo-woos from jumping around making excited little squeaking noises about how everything they'd said about pyramids was true after all, take that, you dumb ol' skeptics, etc.
So I suppose it's unsurprising that there is still a lot of latent interest in pyramids lying around, waiting for some unsuspecting nimrod to come along and pick it up. This at least partly explains the "Pyramid Razor Sharpener" website, wherein we find out how wonderful pyramids are for sharpening razors by having the words "Pyramid Razor Sharpener" thrown at us (no lie) fifteen times. Here are a few of the other things we learn:
- A pyramid is a "cone shape, but with flat sides and corners." Which is true in approximately the same fashion as saying that a cube is "a sphere shape, but with flat sides and edges."
- Razor blades and other sharp metal objects become dull not because use wears and blunts the edges, but because of "a crystaline [sic] build-up on the blade, static electricity and dehydration."
- It's especially hard on razors to use them for shaving, because the "repeated rubbing of the blade on the face hairs induces an ionic crystal formation of the water molecules upon the skin."
- Pyramids work because "alignment with the magnetic field provides for the naturally present charged particles to be 'entrapped' by the pyramid and their resulting focus at the corners." Whatever the fuck that means.
- It can't be a different shape than a pyramid (such as a cylinder, which is like a cube shape but with flat circles on the end) because "the particular dimensions of the pyramid cause a concentration, or focus of a negative static charge at one third of its height at an equal distance from the four corners."
- Because we're talking about static charges, here, you shouldn't build your pyramid out of something that conducts electricity. He suggests cardboard. (I bet the ancient Egyptians wish they'd realized this before they busted their asses hauling around all of those gigantic rocks.)
- If you put your dull razor under the pyramid, it will become sharp because of ions. More specifically, the "positive ions of the crystals on the blade are effectively neutralized by the negatively charged ion concentration inside the pyramid. The crystals are stripped of their bonds and water molecules are released. This results in the dehydration (this is the same with mummification) of the crystals, which are destroyed. The blade is now clean and feels sharp once again." So q.e.d., as far as I can tell.
So there's something kind of endearingly earnest about this guy, even though if he thinks that water forms "ionic crystals" he really should sign up for a chemistry class. (He did say that he'd written his "scientific explanation" of how it works in such a way as "not to sound too sciencey," and I'd say he succeeded at least as far as that goes.) My general conclusion, however, is that you probably should stick to ordinary strops and knife sharpeners, and/or buying new razor blades when yours get dull. Even if you built your pyramid out of scrap cardboard, you're better off recycling it and finding a different way to "neutralize your positive ions."
Saturday, August 6, 2022
Sailing the milky seas
Sometimes, the first thing you have to do in order to explain a mysterious phenomenon is to show that the mysterious phenomenon actually exists.
The human brain, as astronomer Neil deGrasse Tyson put it, is "rife with ways of getting it wrong." He's not only talking about the unfortunate penchant some people have for perpetrating hoaxes; it's just that our preconceived notions, the selective filters on what we see and hear, and (let's face it) our ignorance about natural phenomena make it all too easy to misinterpret what we're seeing and hearing. Dr. Tyson relates a particularly amusing example, a policeman out at night who gave chase on a mountain road to a UFO -- a bright light, he said, that was ahead of him near the horizon, and kept bobbing around, easily staying in the lead as he swerved back and forth around the curves.
Turns out what he was chasing was the planet Venus, and the bobbing motion was his brain's inability to sort out the fact that it was in a moving car traveling on a winding road.
Not all examples of oddball eyewitness testimony are that easily explained, however. Take, for example, the reports that have come in for (literally) centuries from sailors out in the open ocean, of times that the seas suddenly take on an opaque, opalescent glow -- the so-called "milky seas" phenomenon.
It's not the same as ordinary bioluminescence, a sparkling and flashing of living organisms that are capable of producing light. A well-known example is the dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans, which produces the blue glow sometimes seen in shallow tropical waters. Bioluminescence, however -- at least the kind we know about -- is transitory, lasting for minutes, and even when it's due to microorganisms only affects a small area.
The "milky seas" phenomenon, however, lasts for hours, and there are accounts of ships traveling for a hundred miles through water that looks like "a plain covered with snow." And unlike typical bioluminescence, whatever causes milky seas is suppressed by agitation -- the eyewitness accounts report that the bow wave of the ship is darker than the surrounding water.
The phenomenon has proven elusive, though. First of all, whatever it is, it's rare; there are only a couple of reports a year. This makes it hard to study, and also makes it tempting to attribute it to overactive imagination, or simple misreporting of something completely ordinary like the reflection of moonlight (a bit like our unfortunate Venus-chasing policeman).
But now, a paper this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has shown conclusive evidence that it exists -- not only photographs and reports from a ship sailing near Java, but satellite images of the event taken on the same night.
Explaining what's causing the phenomenon, however, is still not simple. One theory is that it's being caused by a bloom of a so-far-unidentified species of bioluminescent bacteria, based on a single water sample from a milky seas event in the Arabian Sea in 1985.
But at least now we have hard evidence that it's something real. "The biggest missing link in our study from last year was the lack of ground truth," said study lead author Steven Miller, of Colorado State University, who has been chasing this phenomenon for years. "But this current study provides it. It was a great relief to get this contact from the Ganesha crew."
It's fascinating how little we know about the oceans -- I've heard it said that we know more about the surface of the Moon than we do about the open ocean and seafloor, and I believe it. But it looks like one of the ocean's mysteries has at least shown itself for sure. We still don't have a certain explanation for it, but at least now we know the phenomenon is real.
So figuring out what's going on when the seas at night turn to milk is only a matter of time.
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