Skeptophilia (skep-to-fil-i-a) (n.) - the love of logical thought, skepticism, and thinking critically. Being an exploration of the applications of skeptical thinking to the world at large, with periodic excursions into linguistics, music, politics, cryptozoology, and why people keep seeing the face of Jesus on grilled cheese sandwiches.

Friday, August 5, 2022

Starve a cold

Today from the Unintentionally Hilarious Department, we have a paper that made its way into PubMed that has the title, "Pharmacoeconomic Comparison Between Homeopathic and Antibiotic Treatment Strategies in Recurrent Acute Rhinopharyngitis in Children."

[Image is in the Public Domain]

Here's a quick summary of the objectives and results, as quoted from the abstract:

Objectives: A pharmacoeconomic study to compare, in terms of: medical effectiveness, quality of life and costs two treatment strategies ('homeopathic strategy' vs 'antibiotic strategy') used in routine medical practice by allopathic and homeopathic GPs in the treatment of recurrent acute rhinopharyngitis in 18-month to 4-year-old children. 

Results: The 'homeopathic strategy' yielded significantly better results than the 'antibiotic strategy' in terms of medical effectiveness (number of episodes of rhinopharyngitis: 2.71 vs 3.97, P<0.001; number of complications: 1.25 vs 1.95, P<0.001), and quality of life (global score: 21.38 vs 30.43, P<0.001), with lower direct medical costs covered by Social Security (88 Euros vs 99 Euros, P<0.05) and significantly less sick-leave (9.5% of parents vs 31.6% of parents, P<0.001)...  Homeopathy may be a cost-effective alternative to antibiotics in the treatment of recurrent infantile rhinopharyngitis.
What makes this hilarious is that the authors of the article, Melanie Trichard, Gilles Chaufferin, and Nicolas Nicoloyannis, are apparently unaware that because acute rhinopharyngitis (better known to most of us as a "cold") is viral in origin, antibiotics are entirely useless for fighting it, and no competent doctor would prescribe them in this situation for a child or for anyone else.  So saying that homeopathic "remedies" are as good for fighting colds as antibiotics is akin to the following claims:
  • crystals are as effective as aromatherapy for setting broken bones
  • blood-letting has the same success rate as seeing a witch doctor for curing brain cancer
  • Tarot cards have the same likelihood of telling you your future as palm-reading
  • peanut butter is as effective as chocolate pudding as a window-cleaner
The maddening thing is that you can still find homeopathic "remedies" (i.e., pills or liquids with no active ingredients) being sold for lots of money on pharmacy shelves, despite study after study showing that they are worthless.  The most recent study generated the following conclusion:
The review found no good quality, well-designed studies with enough participants to support the idea that homeopathy works better than a placebo, or causes health improvements equal to those of another treatment. 
Although some studies did report that homeopathy was effective, the quality of those studies was assessed as being small and/or of poor quality.  These studies had either too few participants, poor design, poor conduct and or [sic] reporting to allow reliable conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of homeopathy. 
According to CEO Professor Warwick Anderson, “All medical treatments and interventions should be underpinned by reliable evidence. NHMRC’s review shows that there is no good quality evidence to support the claim that homeopathy works better than a placebo.”
Dr. Steven Novella, a vocal and articulate supporter of science-based medicine, put it more clearly:

[The] pattern is now clear – gold standard clinical evidence shows that homeopathy does not work.  Homeopaths do not respond by either producing high quality evidence of efficacy or by changing their views to account for the evidence.  Rather, they whine about the game being rigged against them and try to change the rules of evidence, so that weak studies that are almost guaranteed to be false positive are used, or studies that are not even designed to test efficacy... 
For some reason we cannot summon the political will to do what reason demands (and what multiple systematic reviews by government bodies have recommended) and finally expel homeopathy from modern health care. 
Still there are researchers, either because they are true believers or just naive, calling for yet more research into homeopathy, such as the proposed Toronto study of homeopathy for ADHD.  The demand for more research will never end.  The public, however, should no longer support this profound waste of resources.
What is amazing is that the homeopaths themselves won't admit that the game is up.  How many failed studies do they need?  I realize that this would mean they were out of a job, but for cryin' in the sink, at what point do you say, "Okay, I guess I was wrong?"

I guess the answer to the last question is, "Never."  "Death before admitting we're ripping people off by selling them useless remedies," that's the motto of the homeopaths.  Anyhow, I'm done here.  I've got to go clean my windows.  The last time didn't work out so well.

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Thursday, August 4, 2022

What's bred in the bone

A friend of mine was chatting with me about irritating situations at work, and she mentioned that she'd really lost her cool with a supervisor the previous week who apparently is notorious for being a bit of an asshole.  I mentioned that I tend to put up with such nonsense and later wish I'd spoken up for myself -- that it has to be pretty bad before I'll blow up (at a supervisor or anyone else).

She laughed and said, "Of course I have a quick temper.  My family's Italian.  It's in our genes."

She was joking, of course, no more serious than my father was when he quipped that our family was "French enough to like to drink and Scottish enough not to know when to stop."  But it's a common enough view, isn't it?  We get our personality traits from some nebulous genetic heritage, despite the fact that a great many of us are pretty thorough mixtures of ancestry, and that all humans regardless of race or ethnicity are well over 99.9% similar anyhow.  As geneticist Kenneth Kidd put it, "Race is not biologically definable.  We are far too similar."

Ha.  Take that, racists.

[Image is in the Public Domain]

The whole thing gets complicated, however, because race and ethnicity certainly have a cultural reality, and that can certainly affect how your personality develops as you grow up.  If you're raised in a family where arguments are regularly settled through shouting and waving your arms around (apparently true in my friend's case), then you learn that as a standard of behavior.  (Or, sometimes, decide, "That was a miserable way to live, I'm never going to treat people that way," and swing to the opposite extreme.)  All of this is just meant to highlight that teasing apart the genetic components of behavior (and there certainly are some) from the learned ones is no simple task.

All of this just gained an additional complication with a study last week in the journal Social Cognition that looked at another factor contributing to our behavior -- how our notions about our genetic makeup influence how we think we should be acting.

The study, by Ryan Wheat and Matthew Vess (of Texas A & M) and Patricia Holte (of Wake Forest University), was simple enough.  What they did was to take a group of test subjects, gave them a (bogus) saliva test, and split the group in two.  They were then given the "results," regarding what the sample said about their genetic makeup for a variety of characteristics.  The salient part, though was that half were told that their genetic sample showed they had an unusually high propensity for risk-taking, and the other half were told their genes said they tended to avoid risk.

Afterward, they were given a personality test, and only one thing was important; the questions that evaluated them for risk-tolerance.  Across the board, the people who were told their genes predisposed them to taking risks scored higher on the risk-tolerance questions than did the people who were told their genes made them risk-averse.

So not only do we have how we were raised complicating any sort of understanding of the genetic component of human behavior, we have our subconscious conforming to our perception of how people with our genetic makeup are thought to behave.

So even if there is no Italian gene for quick temper, maybe my friend's short fuse comes from her belief that there is.

Coupled, of course, with having been raised in a shouty family.  The "nurture" side of "nature vs. nurture" is not inconsequential.  All the more reason that question of whether behavior is learned or innate has been going on for a century and still hasn't been decisively settled.

In any case, I better wrap this up.  I think I'm going to go get another cup of coffee.  It's a little early for a glass of red wine, and you know us people with French blood.  It's either one or the other.

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Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Give me a break

A while back I wrote a piece about the Mandela Effect, which is the idea that when you remember some major event differently than other people, it's not because your memory is wrong, it's because you have side-slipped here from an alternate universe where the version you remember actually happened.  The phenomenon gets its name from the fact that a lot of people "remember" that Nelson Mandela died in jail decades ago, not peacefully in his home in Johannesburg in 2013.  These same folks are the ones who make an enormous deal over "remembering" that the Berenstain Bears -- the annoyingly moralistic cartoon characters who preach such eternal truths as Be Nice To Your Siblings Even When You Feel Like Punching The Shit Out Of Them and Your Parents Are Always Right About Everything and Pay Attention In School Or Else You Are Bad -- were originally the Berenstein Bears (with an "e" instead of an "a").

Why their name would be different in an alternate universe, I don't know.  From watching Star Trek and Lost in Space, I always assumed that the major differences you'd find in an alternate universe is that all of the good guys would be bad guys, and because of that, many of them would be wearing beards.


But the Mandela Effect isn't going away, despite the fact that if you believe it you're basically saying that your memory is 100% accurate, all of the time, and that you have never misremembered anything in your life.  The whole thing has become immensely popular to "study" -- although what there is there to study, I don't know.  Witness the fact that there is now a subreddit (/r/MandelaEffect) with almost thirty thousand subscribers.

The most recent thing to be brought to light by this cadre of timeline-jumpers has to do with the "Kit Kat" candy bar.  Apparently many people recall the name from their childhood as being "Kit Kats" (with an "s"), even though that doesn't really work with the candy's irritating ear-worm of a jingle, "Give me a break, give me a break, break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar."  So once again, it's more likely that you're in an alternate universe than you just aren't recalling the name of a candy bar correctly.  And now we have someone who has proposed an explanation as to why all of this is happening.

You ready?

The Mandela Effect is caused by...

... CERN.

Yes, CERN, the world's largest particle accelerator, home of the Large Hadron Collider, which became justly famous for not creating a black hole and destroying the Earth when it was fired up a few years ago.  CERN has been the target of woo-woo silliness before now; back in 2009, projects had to be sidelined for months while the mechanism was repaired after a seagull dropped a piece of a baguette onto some electrical wires and caused a short, and the woo-woos decided that the seagull had been sent back in time to destroy the LHC before it blew up the entire universe.

So I guess there's no end to what CERN can do, up to and including vaporizing specific letters off of candy bar wrappers.  But you know, if CERN can alter our timeline, don't you think there's more important stuff that it could accomplish besides changing the spellings of candy bars and cartoon bears?  If I could alter the past, first thing I'd do is go back in time and hand Tucker Carlson's father a condom.

But I might be a little biased in that regard.

What baffles me about all of this is that not only is there abundant evidence that human memory is plastic and fallible, but just from our own experience you'd think there would be hundreds of examples where we'd clearly recalled things incorrectly.  The fact that these people have to invent an "effect" that involves alternate universes to support why they're always right takes hubris to the level of an art form.

So anyway. I'm not too worried about the possibility of my having side-slipped from another timeline where I'm a world-famous author whose novels regularly rocket to the top of the New York Times Bestseller List.  I'm more concerned at the moment over how the hell I'm going to get the "Kit Kat" jingle out of my head, because that thing is really fucking annoying.

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Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Death, with big nasty pointy teeth

One of the biggest mysteries in paleontology is what caused the Cambrian Explosion.

You probably know that the Cambrian Explosion is when, around 538.8 million years ago, all of the basic body plans of modern animals appeared in a relative flash.  Before that, there were various simple and soft-bodied forms; afterward, there were animals that were clearly arthropods, annelids (segmented worms), mollusks, echinoderms, corals, nematodes, and proto-vertebrates.

In addition, there were also a number of groups of uncertain relationship to better-known lineages, and which went extinct by the end of the Cambrian Period.  One of the weirdest is Opabinia:

[Image licensed under the Creative Commons Nobu Tamura (http://spinops.blogspot.com), Opabinia BW2, CC BY 3.0]

This kind of rapid diversification is usually an indication that something drastic has changed.  One event that sometimes causes this is a large extinction -- leaving behind open niches that the survivors can adapt to fill.  But there appears to have been no major extinction immediately prior to the Cambrian Explosion.

One of the most plausible explanations has its basis in the observation that a lot of the new forms had fossilizable parts -- shells, exoskeletons, teeth, stiff fins and tails adapted for rapid swimming, and so on.  These more durable body parts mostly are either of a defensive or offensive nature.  So perhaps the Cambrian Explosion was triggered when formerly scavenging species realized they didn't have to wait for their friends and neighbors to die to have dinner, and predation was invented.  At that point, there's a hell of a selective pressure for said friends and neighbors to develop structures that protect them from being on the day's menu -- or turn them into predators themselves.

That theory about the origins of the Cambrian Explosion got a significant boost with the recent discovery of a fossil in Charnwood Forest, near Leicester, England, which is the oldest clearly predatory animal known -- and dates to 560 million years ago, so about twenty million years prior to the spike in biodiversity.

It's a relative of modern sea anemones, and was christened Auroralumina attenboroughii, "Attenborough's dawn lantern," after naturalist David Attenborough, who said he was "truly delighted" by the honor.  


[Image licensed under the Creative Commons F. S. Dunn, C. G. Kenchington, L. A. Parry, J. W. Clark, R. S. Kendall & P. R. Wilby, Auroralumina attenboroughii reconstruction, CC BY-SA 4.0]

It's wildly inaccurate to say that "this is the species that caused the Cambrian Explosion," but it certainly is suggestive that predators evolved not that long before the burst in biodiversity began.  "It’s generally held that modern animal groups like jellyfish appeared 540 million years ago, in the Cambrian Explosion, but this predator predates that by twenty million years," said Phil Wilby of the British Geological Survey, who co-authored the study.  "It’s the earliest creature we know of to have a skeleton.  So far we’ve only found one, but it’s massively exciting to know there must be others out there, holding the key to when complex life began on Earth."

It's amazing to think of what the Earth was like back then.  The only life was in the sea, and the vast continents were nothing but bare rock and sand without a single living thing anywhere.  Into that world was born an animal that was one of the first of its kind, a predatory beast with a protective skeleton to make sure that it wouldn't get turned into lunch itself -- launching the evolution of a dizzying array of structures that allowed for fleeing, attacking, and self-protecting, including all of the big, nasty, pointy teeth we see in predatory animals today.

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Monday, August 1, 2022

The thoughtographer

Twice a year, a nearby town has a Friends of the Library used book sale that has become justly famous all over the region.  It features a quarter of a million books, runs for three weeks, and raises tens of thousands of dollars.  On the first day -- when the true rarities and collectibles are available -- the line to enter starts to form four hours before the doors open, and stretches all the way around the block.

I'm not quite such a fanatic, but it is still one of the high points of my year.  I've picked up some real gems there.  This year's take included the "cult bestseller" (says so right on the cover), Ghosts: True Encounters With the World Beyond by Hans Holzer, which is massive both in popularity and in actual weight.

If you're at all familiar with the field of parapsychology, you've probably heard of Holzer.  He was one of the principal investigators into the famous Amityville Horror (alleged) haunting.  He wrote over a hundred books, mostly on the supernatural and the occult, and for years taught courses in parapsychology at the New York Institute of Technology.  Throughout his life -- and it was a long one, he died in 2009 at age 89 -- he was a vociferous believer in the paranormal, and equally strident denouncer of skeptics and scoffers.

Still, given my interest in beliefs in the supernatural, picking up a copy of this book for a couple of bucks was irresistible.  I'm glad to say it does not disappoint.  Besides containing hundreds of "true tales of ghosts and hauntings," he's not shy about saying what he thinks about the doubters:
To the materialist and the professional skeptic -- that is to say, people who do not wish their belief that death is the end of life as we know it to be disturbed -- the notion of ghosts is unacceptable.  No matter how much evidence is presented to support the reality of the phenomena, these people will argue against it and ascribe it to any of several "natural" causes.  Delusion or hallucination must be the explanation, or perhaps a mirage, if not outright trickery.  Entire professional groups that deal in the manufacturing of illusions have taken it upon themselves to label anything that defies their ability to reproduce it artificially through trickery or manipulation as false or nonexistent.  Especially among photographers and magicians, the notion that ghosts exist has never been popular.
There's a reason for that last bit, of course.  Photographers and magicians know how easy it is to fool people and create effects that look absolutely real.  It's not a coincidence that perhaps the most famous debunker, James Randi, was a professional stage magician before he dedicated his life to going after people like Sylvia Browne, Peter Popoff, and Uri Geller.

This paragraph (and the many others like it scattered throughout the book) shows that Holzer didn't really understand the definition of the word "skeptic."  Skeptics have the highest regard for evidence; in fact, it's the only thing that really convinces us.  But once it does, that's that.  Skeptics are able to say, "Well, I guess I was wrong, then," and turn on a dime if presented with reliable evidence.  However, that word "reliable" is usually the sticking point.  Holzer's compendium is chock-full of what he considers evidence, but which are either anecdotal accounts by people like "Mary G." and "John S.", or else demonstrations of the supernatural which are clearly explainable from the "natural causes" Holzer scoffs at.

The result is that he uncritically fell for people who were clearly frauds, and afterward staunchly stood by his assessment, a practice that was criticized by an article in the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research as "cast(ing) considerable doubt on the objectivity and reliability of his work as a whole."  One of the most egregious examples is his endorsement of the alleged abilities of the man who became known as "The Thoughtographer," Ted Serios.

Serios claimed to be able to use an ordinary camera outfitted with something he called a "gizmo" -- effectively, nothing more than a cardboard tube -- which was then aimed at his forehead.  He then (he said) sent his "thought energy" into the camera, and when the film was developed, it would have an image of what he was thinking about.

Ted Serios in 1967 [Image was released into the Public Domain by photographer Jule Eisenbud]

First, let's see what Holzer has to say about Serios:
A few years ago, Dr. Jules [sic] Eisenbud of the University of Colorado at Denver startled the world with his disclosures of the peculiar talents of a certain Ted Serios, a Chicago bellhop gifted with psychic photography talents.  This man could project images into a camera or television tube, some of which were from the so-called future.  Others were from distant places Mr. Serios had never been to.  The experiments were undertaken under the most rigid test conditions.  They were repeated, which was something the old-line scientists in parapsychology stressed over and over again.  Despite the abundant amount of evidence, produced in the glaring limelight of public attention and under strictest scientific test conditions, some of Dr. Eisenbud's colleagues at the University of Colorado turned away from him whenever he asked them to witness the experiments he was conducting.  So great was the prejudice against anything Eisenbud and his colleagues might find that might oppose existing concepts that men of scientists couldn't bear to find out for themselves.  They were afraid they would have to unlearn a great deal.
What Holzer conveniently fails to mention is that there was a second "gizmo" that Serios required -- a second, smaller tube with a lens at one end.  The other end contained a piece of an old 35-mm film slide, and when the flash went off, the image from the slide was projected right into the camera aperture.  It was small enough to be concealed in the palm of Serios's hand.

A magic trick, in other words.  Sleight-of-hand.

Serios's claims came to the attention of none other than the aforementioned James Randi, who invited Jule Eisenbud, Serios himself, and any other interested parties to come watch him up on stage -- where he replicated Serios's trick flawlessly.  Eisenbud afterward said he was "flabbergasted;" Serios gave a "wan smile" and wouldn't comment.

No mention of that in Holzer's book, either.

Look, I don't really blame Eisenbud for getting suckered; it's not like I wouldn't have been taken in, either.  We've all watched talented stage magicians do their thing and said, in bafflement, "How in the hell...?"  What I do blame Eisenbud for, though, is not pursuing it further -- telling Serios, "Okay, you need a 'gizmo'?  Tell me how it's made, and I'll make one for you -- show me you can do your trick without any props of your own construction."  Now, I also have to admit that working with Serios can't have been easy.  He was clearly mentally ill.  In Nile Root's book Thoughtography, about the Serios case, the author writes
Ted Serios exhibits a behavior pathology with many character disorders.  He does not abide by the laws and customs of our society.  He ignores social amenities and has been arrested many times.  His psychopathic and sociopathic personality manifests itself in many other ways.  He does not exhibit self-control and will blubber, wail and bang his head on the floor when things are not going his way.

He exhibits strong hostility toward figures of authority, such as policemen and scientists.  He is an alcoholic and in psychic experiments he has been encouraged toward the excessive use of alcohol.  He has demonstrated the symptoms of a manic-depressive with manic episodes.  In one hypermaniacal period he acted like a violent madman and could not be restrained.

He often becomes profane and raging, completely reckless.  While depressed he ignores other people, has a far-away look and is disenchanted with everything.  He is always bored with talk unless it is about him. He often imagines himself a hero, and sometimes identifies with a violent known personality.  He also exhibits sadistic behavior, for example by embarrassing Dr. Eisenbud once, giving as his own Dr. Eisenbud's name and his profession (a psychiatrist) when arrested.

In spite of the questionable research methods and the personality quirks of Serios, a number of Denver professional men believed Ted Serios was a psychic, with a unique power to record his thoughts with a Polaroid camera.
So I can see that it wouldn't have been any fun to try and force Serios to conform to adequate scientific control protocols.  Not that this excuses Eisenbud, though; he made the claim, so saying "Serios is impossible to control" doesn't obviate his duty to observe proper experimental procedure prior to publishing any results.

Holzer, though?  He ignored the overwhelming evidence that Serios was a fraud, claiming instead that there was "abundant amount of evidence, produced in the glaring limelight of public attention and under strictest scientific test conditions."  Which is not so much a dodge as it is a flat-out falsehood.  And that, to me, is inexcusable.

And another thing -- Holzer mischaracterizes skeptics and scientists in another way, one that shows that he didn't understand the scientific process at all.  He describes scientists as clinging to their preconceived notions, even in the face of evidence, as if the entire scientific edifice was threatened by new data, and the researchers themselves determined to sit back and keeping the same understanding of the universe they'd had all along.  The truth is, science depends on finding new and puzzling information; that's how science progresses.  Now, scientists are humans, and you can find many examples of people clutching their favorite model with both hands even when the contradictory evidence comes rolling in.  (A good example is how long it took the plate tectonics/continental drift model to be accepted.)  But then it's beholden upon the scientist making the extraordinary claim to produce such incontrovertible evidence that the opposition has no choice but to acquiesce -- which is exactly what happened when Drummond Matthews and Frederick Vine proved seafloor spreading and plate movement beyond a shadow of a doubt.

The truth is that finding new evidence that modifies or overturns a previous model is how careers are made in science.  As astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson put it, "Journalists are always writing articles with headlines that say, 'Scientists have to go back to the drawing board.'  As if we scientists are sitting in our offices, our feet up on the desk, masters of the universe, then suddenly... oops!  Somebody discovered something!  No, we're always back at the drawing board.  If you're not at the drawing board, you're not making discoveries.  You're not doing science."

In my own case, I'm certainly a skeptic, even if I'm not a scientist but only a humble layperson.  And I can say without any hesitation that I would love it if there was hard evidence for the paranormal, and of life after death in particular.  Can you imagine how that would change our understanding of the world, and of ourselves?  Plus the added benefit of knowing that death wasn't the end of us.  Me, I'm not particularly fond of the idea of nonexistence; an afterlife would be awesome, especially if it involved a tropical climate, hammocks, and drinks with little umbrellas.

But be that as it may.  I still find Holzer's book entertaining, at least the parts with the actual ghost stories.  The diatribes about the evil skeptics and narrow-minded scientists, not so much.  It'd be nice to see more of the collaborative efforts to investigate paranormal claims, such as the ones done by the Society of Psychical Research.

But just saying "science is ignoring the evidence," and then presenting evidence that is clearly spurious, is not helping the parapsychologists' claims at all.

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Saturday, July 30, 2022

First, do no harm

I keep thinking I'm not going to need to write any more about LGBTQ issues, that I've said all I need to say, and yet... here we are.

I'm going to start with a question directed at the people who are so stridently against queer rights, queer visibility, even queer existence.  I doubt many people of that ilk read Skeptophilia, but you never know.  So here goes:

How does guaranteeing that LGBTQ people are treated equally, fairly, and kindly, and are given the same rights as straight people, affect you at all?

It costs you absolutely nothing to say, "I'm not like you, and maybe I don't even understand this part of you, but even so, I respect your right to be who you are without shame or fear."  For example, I'm not trans; I have always felt unequivocally that I am one hundred percent male.  But when I had trans students in my classes, all it required was my crossing out a first name on the roster and writing in the name they'd prefer to be known by, and remembering to use the appropriate pronouns.  A minuscule bit of effort on my part; hugely, and positively, significant on theirs.

What possible justification could I have for refusing?

The reason this whole topic comes up once again is a link sent to me by a loyal reader of Skeptophilia about a rugby team in Australia, the Manly Sea Eagles, which had seven of its players refuse to play in an important match because the owner wanted the team to wear jerseys with a rainbow design meant to promote inclusivity.


Note that the jerseys pretty subtle.  There's not even any text explaining, or calling attention to, the rainbow bands.  But even that level of support was a bridge too far for seven homophobic bigots, who chose to stand down from the game instead.

The whole incident is made even more outrageous by the fact that the owner wasn't wanting the jersey design changed permanently; it was for one damn game, as a sign of solidarity with LGBTQ players and fans.  But no, seven players refused to wear them, saying it violated their "religious beliefs."

Retired Sea Eagles player Ian Roberts, who is the first rugby league player to come out publicly as gay, was devastated by the players' actions.  "I try to see it from all perspectives, but this breaks my heart,” Roberts said.  "It’s sad and uncomfortable.  As an older gay man, this isn’t unfamiliar.  I did wonder whether there would be any religious pushback.  That’s why I think the NRL have never had a Pride round.  I can promise you every young kid on the northern beaches who is dealing with their sexuality would have heard about this."

Matt Bungard, of Wide World of Sports, was blunter still.  "I don’t want to hear one single thing about ‘respecting other people’s opinions’ or using religion as a crutch to hide behind while being homophobic.  No issues playing at a stadium covered in alcohol and gambling sponsors, which is also a sin.  What a joke."

Which I agree with completely, but it brings me back to my initial question; how did wearing the jerseys, for one night, harm those seven players?  The jerseys didn't say, "Hi, I'm Gay."  They were just a sign of support and inclusivity, of treating others the way you'd like to be treated.

Hmm, now where did I hear about that last bit?  Seems like I remember someone famous saying that.  Give me a moment, I'm sure it'll come to me.

A Christian baker creating a wedding cake for a gay couple is saying, "I may not be gay, but I'm happy you've found someone you love and want to spend your life with."  Straight parents who give unconditional support to their trans child are saying, "I love you no matter what, no matter who you are and what you'd like to be called."  A straight teacher having books with queer representation is saying, "Even if I don't experience sexuality like you do, I want you to understand yourself and be happy and confident enough to express your own truth openly."


I remember when I first saw this tweet thinking, "How about creating a world where if Billy did wake up and go ask Brad to the prom, it would be no big deal?"  It costs cis-hetero people nothing, zilch, to say, "I'm fine with who you are."  And to queer kids, it would be life-changing.  Heaven knows, my life would have been different if I'd been able to ask Brad to the prom.

Not you specifically, Brad.  I'm just making a point.

Really, all it requires is the ability to say (1) "Your experience is not the same as my experience, and that's okay," and (2) "I'm committed to treating everyone with kindness, respect, and love."

Instead, far too many people are still choosing bigotry, exclusion, and oppression.  And here in the United States, there is an increasing push to codify all that hatred into law.

If you're against same-sex marriage, if you bristle at Pride events, if you refuse to use a person's chosen name and pronouns, if you think businesses should be able to deny services to queer people, I want you to stop, just for one moment, and ask yourself: how is any of this harming me?  Maybe it's time to pay more attention to the "love thy neighbor" parts of the Bible than to the Book of Leviticus, of which (face it) 99% is ignored by most Christians anyway.  Maybe it's time to put more emphasis on compassion, understanding, and acceptance than on condemning anyone who doesn't think, act, or believe like you do.

After all, Jesus said it himself, in the Gospel of John, chapter thirteen: "By this all people will know that you are my disciples: if you have love for one another."

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Friday, July 29, 2022

The cost of fraud

My Aunt Florence, my mother's older sister, died of Alzheimer's disease.

Her children, especially my cousin Linda, took care of her as she slowly declined during the last fifteen years of her life.  She finally died in 2008 at the age of ninety, and by that time there was little left of her but a physical shell.  She was unresponsive, the higher parts of her brain destroyed by the agonizing progression of this horrible illness.  She went from being a bright, inquisitive, vital woman, an avid reader who did crossword puzzles in ink and could beat the hell out of me in Scrabble, to being... gone.

My Aunt and Uncle in better times

During this ordeal I lived fifteen hundred miles away, so I wasn't confronted every day by the terrible reality of what Alzheimer's does, both to the people suffering it and to their families.  Even so, it was my aunt's face I kept picturing while I was reading an article in Neoscope sent to me by a friend -- all the while getting angrier and angrier.

If you've kept up at all with the research on Alzheimer's you probably are familiar with the words beta amyloid.  It's a short-chain protein, whose function is unknown, which allegedly is directly toxic to nerve cells (and can cause other proteins to misfold, suggesting an etiology similar to Creutzfeld-Jakob syndrome, better known as "mad cow disease").  A great deal of money and time has been spent investigating the role of beta amyloid in Alzheimer's, and in developing drugs that interfere with its production -- significantly, not a single one of which has been shown to slow down the progression of the disease, much less reverse it.

It turns out this is no coincidence.  There is good evidence that the often-cited papers on the topic by Sylvain Lesné -- who wrote convincingly that a specific beta amyloid species, Aß*56, was the culprit in the devastating destruction you see in Alzheimer's sufferers -- were based on faked data.

Not even well-faked, either.  The images Lesné included from "Western blot" experiments, a commonly-used separation technique used to detect specific proteins in mixtures, were cut-and-pasted, something that can be seen not only in faint cut lines in the images but in the fact that the bands in the photographs have clearly been duplicated and moved (i.e., if you look at the edges of the bands, several of them have identically-shaped edges -- something that would be next to impossible in an actual Western blot).

It's a devastating finding.  About how the hell fraud like this got past peer review, biochemist Derek Lowe writes in Science:

The Lesné stuff should have been caught at the publication stage, but you can say that about every faked paper and every jiggered Western blot.  When I review a paper, I freely admit that I am generally not thinking “What if all of this is based on lies and fakery?”  It’s not the way that we tend to approach scientific manuscripts.  Rather, you ask whether the hypothesis is a sound one and if it was tested in a useful way: were the procedures used sufficient to trust the results and were these results good enough to draw conclusions that can in turn be built upon by further research?  Are there other experiments that would make things stronger?  Other explanations that the authors didn’t consider and should address?  Are there any parts where the story doesn’t hang together?  If so, how would these best be fixed?

There is a good-faith assumption behind all these questions: you are starting by accepting the results as shown.  But if someone comes in with data that have in fact been outright faked, and what’s more, faked in such a way as to answer or forestall just those sorts of reviewing tasks, there’s a good chance that these things will go through, unfortunately.
Lesné's apparently fraudulent research doesn't invalidate the whole beta amyloid hypothesis; other, independent studies support the toxic effects of beta amyloid on nerve cells, and have shown there's beta amyloid present in damaged cells.  But Lesné's contention that Aß*56 was causative of Alzheimer's was apparently a blind alley -- and the presence of the protein in the neurons of Alzheimer's sufferers could as well be a result of the disease as a cause.

What concerns me about this kind of thing, though, is the damage it does to the scientific enterprise as a whole.  Here in the United States, in the last twenty years, we've been dealing with the effects of a surge of anti-science propaganda on a number of fronts, most notably anthropogenic climate change and the efficacy of vaccines.  When highly cited, widely publicized work like Lesné's is shown to be based on fraudulent data, it gives more ammunition to the crowd who is already shrieking about how the scientists are making it all up to get grant money and are fundamentally untrustworthy.

And as my friend who sent me the link pointed out, there is a profit motive involved in science.  The publish-or-perish model of scientific research means that the competition for grant money is intense and often cutthroat.  Producing publishable results doesn't just get you funded, it is also the key to tenure-track research positions and the stability and prestige that come with them.  Don't get me wrong, I still strongly believe that 99% of scientists are rigorously ethical, and the vast majority of research is reliable; but when you set the system up to punish negative results, it gives the unscrupulous a hell of an incentive to cheat, and the naysayers yet another opportunity to tar all scientists with one brush.

But what haunts me most in this case is the human cost.  This disease destroys lives, and does it in a slow, agonizing, dehumanizing way.  The idea that falsified data may have led researchers down a fruitless rabbit hole, wasting huge amounts of time and money while people suffered and died, is horrifying.  I keep picturing my Aunt Florence's face, as she languished for years, her brain decaying while her body lived on, and wonder how the people who perpetrate such fraud can sleep at night.

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